Kirjahaku

The International Bestseller by 'The Galileo of number crunchers' (Independent)Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a prediction about the future. Yet from the financial crisis to ecological disasters, we routinely fail to foresee hugely significant events, often at great cost to society. The rise of 'big data' has the potential to help us predict the future, yet much of it is misleading, useless or distracting.In The Signal and the Noise, the New York Times political forecaster Nate Silver, who accurately predicted the results of every state in the 2012 US election, reveals how we can all develop better foresight in an uncertain world. From the stock market to the poker table, from earthquakes to the economy, he takes us on an enthralling insider's tour of the high-stakes world of forecasting, showing how we can all learn to detect the true signals amid a noise of data. 'Remarkable and rewarding' Matthew D'Ancona, Sunday Telegraph'A lucid explanation of how to think probabilistically' Guardian

AN INTERNATIONAL BESTSELLERWITH A NEW PREFACE'Masterly... Utterly compelling... A highly readable and engaging tour' Sam Freedman, The TimesFrom the New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise, the definitive guide to our era of risk—and the players raising the stakesIn the bestselling The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver showed how forecasting would define the age of Big Data. Now, in this timely and riveting new book, Silver investigates "The River," or those whose mastery of risk allows them to shape—and dominate—so much of modern life. These professional risk takers—poker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true-believers and blue-chip art collectors—can teach us much about navigating the uncertainty of the 21st century. By embedding within these worlds, Silver offers insight into a range of issues that affect us all, from the frontiers of finance to the future of AI.The River has increasing amounts of wealth and power in our society, and understanding their mindset—including the flaws in their thinking—is key to understanding what drives technology and the global economy today. There are certain commonalities in this otherwise diverse group: high tolerance for risk; appreciation of uncertainty; affinity for numbers; skill at de-coupling; self-reliance and a distrust of the conventional wisdom. For the River, complexity is baked in, and the work is how to navigate it, without going beyond the pale.Taking us behind-the-scenes from casinos to venture capital firms to meetings of the effective altruism movement, On the Edge is a deeply-reported, all-access journey into a hidden world of powerbrokers and risk takers.

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER - The groundbreaking exploration of probability and uncertainty that explains how to make better predictions in a world drowning in data, from the nation's foremost political forecaster--updated with insights into the pandemic, journalism today, and polling One of The Wall Street Journal's Ten Best Works of Nonfiction of the Year "Could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade."--The New York Times Book Review Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox" The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work in sports and politics, Nate Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how to seek truth from data. In The Signal and the Noise, Silver visits innovative forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He discovers that what the most accurate ones have in common is a superior command of probability--as well as a healthy dose of humility. With everything from the global economy to the fight against disease hanging on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.

AN INTERNATIONAL BESTSELLER'Masterly... Utterly compelling... A highly readable and engaging tour' Sam Freedman, The TimesFrom the New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise, the definitive guide to our era of risk—and the players raising the stakesIn the bestselling The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver showed how forecasting would define the age of Big Data. Now, in this timely and riveting new book, Silver investigates "The River," or those whose mastery of risk allows them to shape—and dominate—so much of modern life. These professional risk takers—poker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true-believers and blue-chip art collectors—can teach us much about navigating the uncertainty of the 21st century. By embedding within these worlds, Silver offers insight into a range of issues that affect us all, from the frontiers of finance to the future of AI.The River has increasing amounts of wealth and power in our society, and understanding their mindset—including the flaws in their thinking—is key to understanding what drives technology and the global economy today. There are certain commonalities in this otherwise diverse group: high tolerance for risk; appreciation of uncertainty; affinity for numbers; skill at de-coupling; self-reliance and a distrust of the conventional wisdom. For the River, complexity is baked in, and the work is how to navigate it, without going beyond the pale.Taking us behind-the-scenes from casinos to venture capital firms to meetings of the effective altruism movement, On the Edge is a deeply-reported, all-access journey into a hidden world of powerbrokers and risk takers.

From the superstar statistician and 'Galileo of number crunchers' (Independent), the definitive guide to our era of risk-and the players raising the stakes A forthcoming Allen Lane publication brought to you by Penguin Random House, on sale June 2024

The Instant New York Times Bestseller With a New Preface from Nate Silver for 2025 "Engaging and entertaining... a glimpse of the economy of the future." --Tim Wu, New York Times Book Review From the New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise, the definitive guide to our era of risk--and the players raising the stakes In a world wired for chaos, these players are rewriting the rules. High-stakes, high-IQ, and often high on their own mythologies, they are driving the next era of finance, tech, and politics. But what happens when their bets go too far? Nate Silver's On The Edge reveals the hidden world of the River. It is the domain of gamblers and like-minded folks who move markets and change the fabric of society: poker legends, hedge fund titans, crypto speculators, and even those willing to bet the world's future on AI. They are obsessives with a deep hunger for volatility and an unrelenting desire to exploit every edge over the rest of us. Silver embeds with them, competing in the World Series of Poker, visiting Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX compound, and attending wild Miami yacht parties at the height of the crypto bubble. On the Edge is a front-row seat to a new world order built on risk, math, and ambition--a gripping ride through the minds shaping your future, whether you like it or not.

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER - The groundbreaking exploration of probability and uncertainty that explains how to make better predictions in a world drowning in data, from the nation's foremost political forecaster One of The Wall Street Journal's Ten Best Works of Nonfiction of the Year "Could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade."--The New York Times Book Review Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox" The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work in sports and politics, Nate Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how to seek truth from data. In The Signal and the Noise, Silver visits innovative forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He discovers that what the most accurate ones have in common is a superior command of probability--as well as a healthy dose of humility. With everything from the global economy to the fight against disease hanging on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.

The Instant New York Times Bestseller "Engaging and entertaining... a glimpse of the economy of the future." --Tim Wu, New York Times Book Review From the New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise, the definitive guide to our era of risk--and the players raising the stakes In a world wired for chaos, these players are rewriting the rules. High-stakes, high-IQ, and often high on their own mythologies, they are driving the next era of finance, tech, and politics. But what happens when their bets go too far? Nate Silver's On The Edge reveals the hidden world of the River. It is the domain of gamblers and like-minded folks who move markets and change the fabric of society: poker legends, hedge fund titans, crypto speculators, and even those willing to bet the world's future on AI. They are obsessives with a deep hunger for volatility and an unrelenting desire to exploit every edge over the rest of us. Silver embeds with them, competing in the World Series of Poker, visiting Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX compound, and attending wild Miami yacht parties at the height of the crypto bubble. On the Edge is a front-row seat to a new world order built on risk, math, and ambition--a gripping ride through the minds shaping your future, whether you like it or not.

Un viaje privilegiado que revela c mo los maestros del riesgo moldean el mundo moderno Nate Silver es conocido por revolucionar el an lisis predictivo aplicado a los deportes, la econom a y la pol tica, pero antes de eso se ganaba la vida jugando al p ker. En su nuevo libro, Silver parte de su experiencia como jugador para investigar a una comunidad de personas con ideas afines cuyo dominio del riesgo le permite dar forma y dominar gran parte de la vida moderna. l la llama El R o. La mayor a de nosotros no tenemos los rasgos que comparten estos profesionales del riesgo: alta tolerancia a situaciones l mite, gusto por la incertidumbre, afinidad por los n meros, una desconfianza instintiva de la sabidur a convencional y un impulso competitivo tan intenso que puede rayar en lo irracional. Para ellos, la complejidad es inherente a la existencia y el trabajo consiste en saber navegarla. Lejos de tratarse de unos outsiders, este tipo de personas acumulan cada vez m s riqueza y poder en nuestras sociedades. De ah que comprender su mentalidad (y los fallos de su pensamiento) sea indispensable si queremos entender qu impulsa la tecnolog a y la econom a global. Al llevarnos tras bambalinas, desde casinos hasta firmas de capital riesgo, desde el interior de la plataforma de criptomonedas FTX hasta reuniones del movimiento de altruismo eficaz, este libro supone un viaje con acceso privilegiado a un mundo oculto pero esencial para vislumbrar la naturaleza de la incertidumbre en el siglo XXI. ENGLISH DESCRIPTION The Instant New York Times Bestseller "Engaging and entertaining... a glimpse of the economy of the future." --Tim Wu, New York Times Book Review From the New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise, the definitive guide to our era of risk--and the players raising the stakes. In the bestselling The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver showed how forecasting would define the age of Big Data. Now, in this timely and riveting new book, Silver investigates "the River," the community of like-minded people whose mastery of risk allows them to shape--and dominate--so much of modern life. These professional risk-takers--poker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true believers and blue-chip art collectors--can teach us much about navigating the uncertainty of the twenty-first century. By immersing himself in the worlds of Doyle Brunson, Peter Thiel, Sam Bankman-Fried, Sam Altman, and many others, Silver offers insight into a range of issues that affect us all, from the frontiers of finance to the future of AI. Most of us don't have traits commonly found in the River: high tolerance for risk, appreciation of uncertainty, affinity for numbers--paired with an instinctive distrust of conventional wisdom and a competitive drive so intense it can border on irrational. For those in the River, complexity is baked in, and the work is how to navigate it. People in the River have increasing amounts of wealth and power in our society, and understanding their mindset--and the flaws in their thinking-- is key to understanding what drives technology and the global economy today. Taking us behind the scenes from casinos to venture capital firms, and from the FTX inner sanctum to meetings of the effective altruism movement, On the Edge is a deeply reported, all-access journey into a hidden world of power bro­kers and risk-takers.

Ennustamme tulevaisuutta joka kerta, kun valitsemme uuden reitin työmatkalla, lähdemme uudelleen treffeille tai säästämme rahaa. Olemme tottuneita ennustajia.Siitä huolimatta monet erittäin tärkeät ja suuria kustannuksia aiheuttavat tapahtumat jäävät meiltä rutiininomaisesti etukäteen näkemättä, kuten Fukushiman voimalaonnettomuus ja syyskuun 11. päivän hyökkäys osoittavat.Tässä kirjassa hämmästyttävän tarkasti toteutuneilla politiikan ennustuksillaan mainetta saavuttanut New York Times -sanomalehden toimittaja Nate Silver kertoo, miten ennustamattoman maailman tapahtumista saadaan parempi ote.Silver selvittää, miten aito signaali erotetaan ympäristön kohinasta, alati lisääntyvästä merkityksettömästä aineistosta. Meidät on ohjelmoitu näkemään merkkejä tapahtumista ja ennustamme niiden varassa itsevarmasti. Väärän merkin näkeminen johtaa kuitenkin huonoon ennusteeseen.Lisäksi ymmärrämme todennäköisyyttä ja epävarmuutta huonosti.Tuloksena on ennustamisen paradoksi: mitä nöyremmin suhtaudumme ennustuskykyymme ja mitä enemmän olemme valmiit oppimaan virheistämme, sitä paremmin muutamme informaation ja aineiston hyväksi tulevaisuutta koskevaksi näkemykseksi.Signaali ja kohina ohjaa näkemään aidon signaalin monilla esimerkeillä, jotka ulottuvat koripallosta politiikkaan, pokeripöytään, pörssiin, shakkilaudalle ja maanjäristyksiin ja ihmisen ennustamistaidon hienoimpaan saavutukseen: sääennusteisiin.