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62 kirjaa tekijältä Alan Jones

Best Fit Lines & Curves

Best Fit Lines & Curves

Alan Jones

Routledge
2018
sidottu
Best Fit Lines and Curves, and Some Mathe-Magical Transformations (Volume III of the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting series) concentrates on techniques for finding the Best Fit Line or Curve to some historical data allowing us to interpolate or extrapolate the implied relationship that will underpin our prediction. A range of simple ‘Moving Measures’ are suggested to smooth the underlying trend and quantify the degree of noise or scatter around that trend. The advantages and disadvantages are discussed and a simple way to offset the latent disadvantage of most Moving Measure Techniques is provided. Simple Linear Regression Analysis, a more formal numerical technique that calculates the line of best fit subject to defined ‘goodness of fit’ criteria. Microsoft Excel is used to demonstrate how to decide whether the line of best fit is a good fit, or just a solution in search of some data. These principles are then extended to cover multiple cost drivers, and how we can use them to quantify 3-Point Estimates.With a deft sleight of hand, certain commonly occurring families of non-linear relationships can be transformed mathe-magically into linear formats, allowing us to exploit the powers of Regression Analysis to find the Best Fit Curves. The concludes with an exploration of the ups and downs of seasonal data (Time Series Analysis). Supported by a wealth of figures and tables, this is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.
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Probability, Statistics and Other Frightening Stuff

Probability, Statistics and Other Frightening Stuff

Alan Jones

Routledge
2018
sidottu
Probability, Statistics and Other Frightening Stuff (Volume II of the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting series) considers many of the commonly used Descriptive Statistics in the world of estimating and forecasting. It considers values that are representative of the ‘middle ground’ (Measures of Central Tendency), and the degree of data scatter (Measures of Dispersion and Shape) around the ‘middle ground’ values.A number of Probability Distributions and where they might be used are discussed, along with some fascinating and useful ‘rules of thumb’ or short-cut properties that estimators and forecasters can exploit in plying their trade. With the help of a ‘Correlation Chicken’, the concept of partial correlation is explained, including how the estimator or forecaster can exploit this in reflecting varying levels of independence and imperfect dependence between an output or predicted value (such as cost) and an input or predictor variable such as size.Under the guise of ‘Tails of the unexpected’ the book concludes with two chapters devoted to Hypothesis Testing (or knowing when to accept or reject the validity of an assumed estimating relationship), and a number of statistically-based tests to help the estimator to decide whether to include or exclude a data point as an ‘outlier’, one that appears not to be representative of that which the estimator is tasked to produce. This is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.
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Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models

Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models

Alan Jones

Routledge
2018
sidottu
Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models (Volume V in the Working Guides to Estimating and Forecasting series) goes part way to debunking the myth that research and development cost are somewhat random, as under certain conditions they can be observed to follow a pattern of behaviour referred to as a Norden-Rayleigh Curve, which unfortunately has to be truncated to stop the myth from becoming a reality! However, there is a practical alternative in relation to a particular form of PERT-Beta Curve.However, the major emphasis of this volume is the use of Monte Carlo Simulation as a general technique for narrowing down potential outcomes of multiple interacting variables or cost drivers. Perhaps the most common of these in the evaluation of Risk, Opportunity and Uncertainty. The trouble is that many Monte Carlo Simulation tools are ‘black boxes’ and too few estimators and forecasters really appreciate what is happening inside the ‘black box’. This volume aims to resolve that and offers tips into things that might need to be considered to remove some of the uninformed random input that often creates a misinformed misconception of ‘it must be right!’Monte Carlo Simulation can be used to model variable determine Critical Paths in a schedule, and is key to modelling Waiting Times and cues with random arisings. Supported by a wealth of figures and tables, this is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.
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Truths, Answers and Possibilities

Truths, Answers and Possibilities

Alan Jones

Lulu.com
2013
sidottu
This book is the hardback, and extended version of Alan's Little Book of Thoughts and Provocations. With a new introduction, describing the ancient 'art' of Bibliomancy, additional photographs and more of Alan's thoughts and provocations it is hoped that the words within these pages will provoke inspiration and personal reflection. Every journey begins with a question. There are 'potential truths', 'probable answers' and 'pluasible possibilities' in these pages. Read, Share, Consider, Discuss and Reflect.
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Reclaiming the Magician

Reclaiming the Magician

Alan Jones

Lulu Press Inc
2014
nidottu
There are several worlds of magic. The glittering world of the illusionist; the flippant world of the conjuror and the world of the 'real magician' manifesting change, summoning supernatural entities - the stuff of stories and legend. The truth is that Magic is Real and Magicians do work to understand their relationship with themselves, others and the Cosmos. This book is an attempt to reclaim the magician by recognising the role he or she plays and the wisdom to which they aspire. It is a brief journey through the worlds of psychology, science and ritual. It will set those seeking mystical 'truths' for the first time and offer food for thought to the established occult practitioner. This book explores aspects of psychology, physics, occult philosophy and offers practical steps and ideas for starting or continuing your own journey into the world of the real magician. Make magick relevant by reclaiming the Magician. Believe Everything and Believe Nothing Find the Magician Within
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Mostly Mental

Mostly Mental

Alan Jones

Lulu Press Inc
2014
nidottu
This book is about the performance theatrical Mind Reading and Mentalism. It is written by a professional performer for professional performers. Whilst it contains what could be considered as 'effects' or 'routines' the core of this book is about the philosophy and psychology of performance. Kenton Knepper has said of this book ..."I see your work as an asset to many sincere performers. Your approach is not for the mildly curious, nor should it be." To re-interate 'this is not for the mildly curious' and is aimed at the sincere performer. Alan Jones presents a fascinating lecture giving valuable ideas about magic and performance relating to his interests and training in NLP and education. Alan's presentation is humorous, eye opening and well worth every magician's attention. I thoroughly enjoyed it." - Eugene Burger "I really enjoyed reading your book. The first card effect is Gangbusters. The Theory is Great Too" - Jeff McBride
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A Learners Guide to Revising for Exams

A Learners Guide to Revising for Exams

Alan Jones

Lulu.com
2015
nidottu
A learners guide to revision and preparation for examinations. Aimed students studying for examinations and tests in Years 9, 10 and 11 (UK) but relevant to all learners who may be looking for some practical advice about learning, memory, time management and exam preparation.
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Transformational Journeys

Transformational Journeys

Alan Jones

Lulu.com
2016
nidottu
Transformational Journeys We are all on a journey. Some of these journeys are solely our own and some we take with others. This book introduces frameworks to explore personal, transformational journeys. Where are you on your path? Where are you going? Where have you been? What about the influence of Karma? Is self development a good thing? In this book you will find provocations, ideas and frameworks to ask yourself some life affirming and life changing questions. Written to support a weekend workshop, this book can stand on its own as an introduction to The Tarot, The Qabbala, Celtic Spirituality as well as questions about The Soul, Life, The Universe and almost everything.
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The Fools Journey

The Fools Journey

Alan Jones

Lulu.com
2016
nidottu
Of all the oracle systems in use today, Tarot is arguably one of the better known. 78 Cards - 22 images which could be said to describe a journey through life and a further 56 which add people and textures to the main chapters of that adventure. As someone who has been exploring the Tarot for several decades, I can honestly say that it one of the most visually poetic embodiments of esoteric teachings available to the student of the arcane. It is frequently misrepresented as simply an oracle and given an esoteric history which is firmly in the realms of the fairy tale but when understood it is a symbolic initiatory system which opens a doorway to spiritual exploration. This book represents a way of taking a journey of self-discovery and in the process developing intuition and genuine insight.
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Winning At Interview: A New Way To Succeed

Winning At Interview: A New Way To Succeed

Alan Jones

Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
2013
nidottu
This is not a book for the faint-hearted but if you have a potentially life-changing job interview coming up then 'Winning at Interview' deserves your full attention. Reader feedback consistently says that 'It completely changed the way I think about job interviews'. Uniquely, Alan Jones describes the world of 'job interviews' as it really is, not as we would perhaps like it to be. In this updated, revised 2020 edition you will learn how to get 'in the zone', 'have the conversations with yourself' and articulate your truth with increased confidence. Through close analysis of the 42 questions you must ask yourself, and suggested responses, you will discover how they will provide you with the answer to everything. In a competitive market we all need something to inspire and empower us, and 'Winning at Interview' will do that for you, whether you are a graduate or senior executive, and regardless of your sector or discipline. If you haven't read this book you won't want to be competing with someone who has.
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Winning At Interview 2017 Edition: A New Way To Succeed

Winning At Interview 2017 Edition: A New Way To Succeed

Alan Jones

Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
2017
nidottu
This is not a book for the faint-hearted but if you have a potentially life-changing job interview coming up then 'Winning at Interview' deserves your full attention. Reader feedback consistently says that 'It completely changed the way I think about job interviews'. Uniquely, Alan Jones describes the world of job interviews as it really is, not as we would perhaps like it to be. In this updated, revised 2020 edition you will learn how to get 'in the zone', 'have the conversations with yourself' and articulate your truth with increased confidence. Through close analysis of the 42 questions you must ask yourself, and suggested responses, you will discover how they will give you the answer to everything.In a competitive market we all need something to inspire and empower us, and 'Winning at Interview' will do that for you, whether you are a graduate or senior executive, and regardless of your sector or discipline. If you haven't read this book you won't want to be competing with someone who has.
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