This book confronts the practical problems of modelling aggregate time series data, in a systematic and intergrated framework. The main problem in econometric modelling of time series is discovering sustainable and interpretable relationships between observed economic variables. The primary aim of this book is to develop an operational econometric approach which allows constructive modelling. Professor Hendry deals with methodological issues (model discovery, data mining, and progressive research strategies); with major tools for modelling (recursive methods, encompassing, super exogeneity, invariance tests); and with practical problems (collinearity, heteroscedasticity, and measurement errors). He also includes an extensive study of US money demand. The book is self-contained, with the technical background covered in appendices. It is thus suitable for first year graduate students, and includes solved examples and exercises to facilitate its use in teaching.
"Econometrics: Alchemy or Science?" analyses the effectiveness and validity of applying econometric methods to economic time series. The methodological dispute is long-standing, and no claim can be made for a single valid method, but recent results on the theory and practice of model selection bid fair to resolve many of the contentious issues. The book presents criticisms and evaluations of competing approaches, based on theoretical economic and econometric analyses, empirical applications, and Monte Carlo simulations, which interact to determine best practice. It explains the evolution of an approach to econometric modelling founded in careful statistical analyses of the available data, using economic theory to guide the general model specification. From a strong foundation in the theory of reduction, via a range of applied and simulation studies, it demonstrates that general-to-specific procedures have excellent properties. The book is divided into four Parts: Routes and Route Maps; Empirical Modelling Strategies; Formalization; and Retrospect and Prospect. A short preamble to each chapter sketches the salient themes, links to earlier and later developments, and the lessons learnt or missed at the time. A sequence of detailed empirical studies of consumers' expenditure and money demand illustrate most facets of the approach. Material new to this revised edition describes recent major advances in computer-automated model selection, embodied in the powerful new software program PcGets, which establish the operational success of the modelling strategy.
In this compelling 1995 book, David Hendry and Mary Morgan bring together the classic papers of the pioneer econometricians. Together, these papers form the foundations of econometric thought. They are essential reading for anyone seeking to understand the aims, method and methodology of econometrics and the development of this statistical approach in economics. However, because they are technically straightforward, the book is also accessible to students and non-specialists. An editorial commentary places the readings in their historical context and indicates the continuing relevance of these early, yet highly sophisticated, works for current econometric analysis. While this book provides a companion volume to Mary Morgan's acclaimed The History of Econometric Ideas, the editors' commentary both adds to that earlier volume and also provides a stand-alone and synthetic account of the development of econometrics.
In this compelling 1995 book, David Hendry and Mary Morgan bring together the classic papers of the pioneer econometricians. Together, these papers form the foundations of econometric thought. They are essential reading for anyone seeking to understand the aims, method and methodology of econometrics and the development of this statistical approach in economics. However, because they are technically straightforward, the book is also accessible to students and non-specialists. An editorial commentary places the readings in their historical context and indicates the continuing relevance of these early, yet highly sophisticated, works for current econometric analysis. While this book provides a companion volume to Mary Morgan's acclaimed The History of Econometric Ideas, the editors' commentary both adds to that earlier volume and also provides a stand-alone and synthetic account of the development of econometrics.
Econometric Modeling provides a new and stimulating introduction to econometrics, focusing on modeling. The key issue confronting empirical economics is to establish sustainable relationships that are both supported by data and interpretable from economic theory. The unified likelihood-based approach of this book gives students the required statistical foundations of estimation and inference, and leads to a thorough understanding of econometric techniques. David Hendry and Bent Nielsen introduce modeling for a range of situations, including binary data sets, multiple regression, and cointegrated systems. In each setting, a statistical model is constructed to explain the observed variation in the data, with estimation and inference based on the likelihood function. Substantive issues are always addressed, showing how both statistical and economic assumptions can be tested and empirical results interpreted. Important empirical problems such as structural breaks, forecasting, and model selection are covered, and Monte Carlo simulation is explained and applied. Econometric Modeling is a self-contained introduction for advanced undergraduate or graduate students. Throughout, data illustrate and motivate the approach, and are available for computer-based teaching. Technical issues from probability theory and statistical theory are introduced only as needed. Nevertheless, the approach is rigorous, emphasizing the coherent formulation, estimation, and evaluation of econometric models relevant for empirical research.
This open access book focuses on the concepts, tools and techniques needed to successfully model ever-changing time-series data. It emphasizes the need for general models to account for the complexities of the modern world and how these can be applied to a range of issues facing Earth, from modelling volcanic eruptions, carbon dioxide emissions and global temperatures, to modelling unemployment rates, wage inflation and population growth. Except where otherwise noted, this book is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit http: //creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0. This work was published by Saint Philip Street Press pursuant to a Creative Commons license permitting commercial use. All rights not granted by the work's license are retained by the author or authors.
This open access book focuses on the concepts, tools and techniques needed to successfully model ever-changing time-series data. It emphasizes the need for general models to account for the complexities of the modern world and how these can be applied to a range of issues facing Earth, from modelling volcanic eruptions, carbon dioxide emissions and global temperatures, to modelling unemployment rates, wage inflation and population growth. Except where otherwise noted, this book is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit http: //creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0. This work was published by Saint Philip Street Press pursuant to a Creative Commons license permitting commercial use. All rights not granted by the work's license are retained by the author or authors.
Climate Econometrics: An Overview provides a review of the research in this new and growing field. The structure of the monograph is as follows: First, section 2 describes econometric methods for empirical climate modeling that can account for wide-sense non-stationarity, namely both stochastic trends and location shifts, with possibly large outliers, as well as dynamics and non-linearities. Section 3 considers hazards confronting empirical modeling of nonstationary time-series data using an example where a counter-intuitive finding is hard to resolve. The framework has a clear subject-matter theory, so is not mere 'data mining', yet the empirical result flatly contradicts the well-based theory. Section 4 provides a brief excursion into climate science, mainly concerned with the composition of the Earth's atmosphere and the role of CO2 as a greenhouse gas. Section 5 considers the consequences, both good and bad, of the Industrial Revolution raising living standards beyond the wildest dreams of those living in the 17th century, but leading to dangerous levels of CO2 emissions from using fossil fuels and consider applications of climate econometrics against that background. Section 6 illustrates the approach by modeling past climate variability over the Ice Ages. Section 7 models UK annual CO2 emissions over 1860-2017 to walk through the stages of modeling empirical time series that manifest all the problems of wide-sense non-stationarity. Section 8 concludes and summarizes a number of other empirical applications.
This open access book focuses on the concepts, tools and techniques needed to successfully model ever-changing time-series data. It emphasizes the need for general models to account for the complexities of the modern world and how these can be applied to a range of issues facing Earth, from modelling volcanic eruptions, carbon dioxide emissions and global temperatures, to modelling unemployment rates, wage inflation and population growth.Except where otherwise noted, this book is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0.
The twentieth century witnessed the rise of the United States as the preeminent player on the world stage. While many individuals were responsible for the American ascension, few have left a larger legacy in the arena of foreign policy than Henry L. Stimson. Serving nearly every American president from Theodore Roosevelt to Harry S. Truman, Stimson shaped America's worldview and influenced America's foreign affairs decisions for over 40 years. A Republican, Stimson served as Secretary of War under William H. Taft (1911-13), Secretary of State under Herbert Hoover (1929-33), and Secretary of War for Franklin D. Roosevelt and Harry S. Truman (1940-45); in addition, he fought in World War I, initiated the Good Neighbor Policy in Central America, and served as Governor General of the Philippines (1927-29). In this new book, David Schmitz reveals how the life of Stimson provides a unique framework for analyzing America's foreign policy development from the imperialism of the 1890s to the origins of the Cold War and the emergence of the United States as the world's leading power after World War II. The author also explains the continuities in foreign policy over this period and the emergence of the internationalist perspective over isolation-ism, showing how Stimson was able to pass along his perspec-tives to the next generation of American policymakers who after World War II established the internationalist mindset of the Cold War years. Stimson's crucial role in the development and use of the atomic bomb is also examined. Henry L. Stimson: The First Wise Man is useful for courses in United States foreign policy, World War II, American history from 1900-1945, and survey courses in U.S. history.
The twentieth century witnessed the rise of the United States as the preeminent player on the world stage. While many individuals were responsible for the American ascension, few have left a larger legacy in the arena of foreign policy than Henry L. Stimson. Serving nearly every American president from Theodore Roosevelt to Harry S. Truman, Stimson shaped America's worldview and influenced America's foreign affairs decisions for over 40 years. A Republican, Stimson served as Secretary of War under William H. Taft (1911-13), Secretary of State under Herbert Hoover (1929-33), and Secretary of War for Franklin D. Roosevelt and Harry S. Truman (1940-45); in addition, he fought in World War I, initiated the Good Neighbor Policy in Central America, and served as Governor General of the Philippines (1927-29). In this new book, David Schmitz reveals how the life of Stimson provides a unique framework for analyzing America's foreign policy development from the imperialism of the 1890s to the origins of the Cold War and the emergence of the United States as the world's leading power after World War II. The author also explains the continuities in foreign policy over this period and the emergence of the internationalist perspective over isolation-ism, showing how Stimson was able to pass along his perspec-tives to the next generation of American policymakers who after World War II established the internationalist mindset of the Cold War years. Stimson's crucial role in the development and use of the atomic bomb is also examined. Henry L. Stimson: The First Wise Man is useful for courses in United States foreign policy, World War II, American history from 1900-1945, and survey courses in U.S. history.
Discover the intimate world of Henry David Thoreau through F. B. Sanborn's collection of his personal letters. This compilation offers a rare glimpse into Thoreau's thoughts, philosophies, and daily life, revealing his deep reflections on nature, society, and self-reliance. Through candid correspondence, readers gain insight into his creative process, friendships, and the principles that shaped his groundbreaking ideas. An engaging window into the mind of a quintessential American thinker, this book invites you to explore the passions and contemplations of one of history's most influential transcendentalists. Familiar Letters of Henry David Thoreau is an unchanged, high-quality reprint of the original edition of 1894.
Title: Voyages from Holland to America, A.D. 1632 to 1644 ... Translated from the Dutch by H. C. Murphy, F.P. Publisher: British Library, Historical Print Editions The British Library is the national library of the United Kingdom. It is one of the world's largest research libraries holding over 150 million items in all known languages and formats: books, journals, newspapers, sound recordings, patents, maps, stamps, prints and much more. Its collections include around 14 million books, along with substantial additional collections of manuscripts and historical items dating back as far as 300 BC. The HISTORY OF TRAVEL collection includes books from the British Library digitised by Microsoft. This collection contains personal narratives, travel guides and documentary accounts by Victorian travelers, male and female. Also included are pamphlets, travel guides, and personal narratives of trips to and around the Americas, the Indies, Europe, Africa and the Middle East. ++++ The below data was compiled from various identification fields in the bibliographic record of this title. This data is provided as an additional tool in helping to insure edition identification: ++++ British Library Vries, David de; Murphy, Henry Cruse; 1853. 4 . 10410.f.15. This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work. This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
