Theory of Financial Relativity: Investment Portfolio Guidance in A Federal Reserve Driven Bubble Prone Deflationary Era
Susan S. Moore; Daniel R. Moore
Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
2013
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"One tries to understand how the order is the higher plane. The order is there, where the big elements combine and guide existence; but in the minute elements this order is not perceptible." What does a famous quotation from Albert Einstein have to do with investing?In 2013, the S&P500 increased almost 30% to a new all-time high; the Federal Reserve continued an aggressive, crisis mode quantitative easing program purchasing $1 Trillion dollars in assets; and in a confounding move, gold plummeted from $1700 to under $1200 an ounce. Despite the Fed easy money program designed to keep interest rates low, long term rates jumped up during the year, while deflation, not inflation, continued to dominate the economy. For investors, the shifting relative value of assets was mind-boggling, moving in perplexing fashion seemingly without regard to fundamental economic reality. Many investors remained fearful of a new crisis being triggered, missing the dramatic equity market uptick during the year.You do not have to be a genius to be a great investor in these baffling times, but you can improve your chances of success by becoming familiar with the Theory of Financial Relativity - a system of ideas explaining the "big elements" that persistently drive financial market value through time.The insights in the book are compiled from Daniel Moore's personal life experiences acquired in Nortel and Silicon Valley during the 1990s dot.com bubble, in the California real estate bubble during the 2000s, and as an investment professional in the 2008 financial market crisis and recovery. His life perspective is augmented with quantitative analysis of financial market history from WWII through 2013, with emphasis on points in time when major market moves occurred.The fine points of the Theory are contained in 8 easy to understand Guiding Principles explaining the dominant forces that impact the value of stocks, bonds, oil and gold through time. The research has been used to develop market correction "warning" signals and indicators of when the "coast is clear" for investing. A portfolio management framework that advises investors to re-balance properly over time and to maintain staying power to survive and even profit from the next inevitable crisis is also contained in the book.Learn from history how the staggering U.S. National Debt has reduced economic growth and led to deflation, how Federal Reserve policy changes trigger stock market reactions, how the oil and gold market are integrally related and how these forces combine to drive financial market order over time. Whether you are an investment professional or novice, the research contained in the book can give you an investing edge by better preparing you for the next major market move.
