Alan Jones

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A man stands at the centre of a maze, two dead bodies at his feet, a weapon lying nearby. As footsteps rush towards him through the extensive grounds of an imposing private estate somewhere in the south-east of England, he has no idea what he will say… Five weeks earlier, newly-elected Labour MP Tom Cavendish-Smyth is drawn into a dangerous liaison with the financier wife of an old friend, eminent medical specialist Ralph Purbright. But as Ralph entangles himself with Tom's aristocratic wife Olivia, the daughter of a wealthy and influential landowner, it becomes clear that these affairs are anything but private indulgences. They are the gateway to a world of political intrigue, deception and conspiracy, one that reaches the highest levels of government. As ambitious local journalist Alex Nowak begins uncovering corruption at the heart of power, Tom finds himself ensnared in a desperate scheme to salvage Prime Minister David Marchant's reputation. But in a game where loyalty is a mirage and trust is a weapon, the outcome is anything but certain. Taut, layered and full of shocking twists, Maze is a gripping political thriller where love, power and betrayal collide, with explosive consequences.

Learning, Unlearning and Re-learning Curves (Volume IV of the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting series) focuses in on Learning Curves, and the various tried and tested models of Wright, Crawford, DeJong, Towill-Bevis and others. It explores the differences and similarities between the various models and examines the key properties that Estimators and Forecasters can exploit.A discussion about Learning Curve Cost Drivers leads to the consideration of a little used but very powerful technique of Learning Curve modelling called Segmentation, which looks at an organisation’s complex learning curve as the product of multiple shallower learning curves. Perhaps the biggest benefit is that it simplifies the calculations in Microsoft Excel where there is a change in the rate of learning observed or expected. The same technique can be used to model and calibrate discontinuities in the learning process that result in setbacks and uplifts in time or cost. This technique is compared with other, better known techniques such as Anderlohr’s. Equivalent Unit Learning is another, relative new technique that can be used alongside traditional completed unit learning to give an early warning of changes in the rates of learning. Finally, a Learning Curve can be exploited to estimate the penalty of collaborative working across multiple partners. Supported by a wealth of figures and tables, this is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists, as well as students of cost engineering.

Best Fit Lines and Curves, and Some Mathe-Magical Transformations (Volume III of the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting series) concentrates on techniques for finding the Best Fit Line or Curve to some historical data allowing us to interpolate or extrapolate the implied relationship that will underpin our prediction. A range of simple ‘Moving Measures’ are suggested to smooth the underlying trend and quantify the degree of noise or scatter around that trend. The advantages and disadvantages are discussed and a simple way to offset the latent disadvantage of most Moving Measure Techniques is provided. Simple Linear Regression Analysis, a more formal numerical technique that calculates the line of best fit subject to defined ‘goodness of fit’ criteria. Microsoft Excel is used to demonstrate how to decide whether the line of best fit is a good fit, or just a solution in search of some data. These principles are then extended to cover multiple cost drivers, and how we can use them to quantify 3-Point Estimates.With a deft sleight of hand, certain commonly occurring families of non-linear relationships can be transformed mathe-magically into linear formats, allowing us to exploit the powers of Regression Analysis to find the Best Fit Curves. The concludes with an exploration of the ups and downs of seasonal data (Time Series Analysis). Supported by a wealth of figures and tables, this is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.

Probability, Statistics and Other Frightening Stuff (Volume II of the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting series) considers many of the commonly used Descriptive Statistics in the world of estimating and forecasting. It considers values that are representative of the ‘middle ground’ (Measures of Central Tendency), and the degree of data scatter (Measures of Dispersion and Shape) around the ‘middle ground’ values.A number of Probability Distributions and where they might be used are discussed, along with some fascinating and useful ‘rules of thumb’ or short-cut properties that estimators and forecasters can exploit in plying their trade. With the help of a ‘Correlation Chicken’, the concept of partial correlation is explained, including how the estimator or forecaster can exploit this in reflecting varying levels of independence and imperfect dependence between an output or predicted value (such as cost) and an input or predictor variable such as size.Under the guise of ‘Tails of the unexpected’ the book concludes with two chapters devoted to Hypothesis Testing (or knowing when to accept or reject the validity of an assumed estimating relationship), and a number of statistically-based tests to help the estimator to decide whether to include or exclude a data point as an ‘outlier’, one that appears not to be representative of that which the estimator is tasked to produce. This is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.

Principles, Process and Practice of Professional Number Juggling (Volume 1 of the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting series) sets the scene of TRACEability and good estimate practice that is followed in the other volumes in this series of five working guides. It clarifies the difference between an Estimating Process, Procedure, Approach, Method and Technique. It expands on these definitions of Approach (Top-down, Bottom-up and‘Ethereal’) and Method (Analogy, Parametric and ‘Trusted Source’) and discusses how these form the basis of all other means of establishing an estimate.This volume also underlines the importance of ‘data normalisation’ in any estimating procedure, and demonstrates that the Estimating by Analogy Method, in essence, is a simple extension of Data Normalisation. The author looks at simple measures of assessing the maturity or health of an estimate, and offers a means of assessing a spreadsheet for any inherent risks or errors that may be introduced by failing to follow good practice in spreadsheet design and build.This book provides a taster of the more numerical techniques covered in the remainder of the series by considering how an estimator can potentially exploit Benford’s Law (traditionally used in Fraud Detection) to identify systematic bias from third party contributors. It will be a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.

Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models (Volume V in the Working Guides to Estimating and Forecasting series) goes part way to debunking the myth that research and development cost are somewhat random, as under certain conditions they can be observed to follow a pattern of behaviour referred to as a Norden-Rayleigh Curve, which unfortunately has to be truncated to stop the myth from becoming a reality! However, there is a practical alternative in relation to a particular form of PERT-Beta Curve.However, the major emphasis of this volume is the use of Monte Carlo Simulation as a general technique for narrowing down potential outcomes of multiple interacting variables or cost drivers. Perhaps the most common of these in the evaluation of Risk, Opportunity and Uncertainty. The trouble is that many Monte Carlo Simulation tools are ‘black boxes’ and too few estimators and forecasters really appreciate what is happening inside the ‘black box’. This volume aims to resolve that and offers tips into things that might need to be considered to remove some of the uninformed random input that often creates a misinformed misconception of ‘it must be right!’Monte Carlo Simulation can be used to model variable determine Critical Paths in a schedule, and is key to modelling Waiting Times and cues with random arisings. Supported by a wealth of figures and tables, this is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.

Children are the heroes of this book Although they are in school to be taught by the adults, they are the ones who really know how to get things done. They are the ones who care for their environment, who can identify a problem, and, above all, who know how to get things moving They are unwavering in their determination and ability to act Parents and teachers will find opportunities within the text to promote children's recognition of rhyme, ability to make predictions and understanding of figurative language and the use of idioms as a way of communicating meaning.

A Half Remembered SongTeacher Tom Ellison takes group of his pupils on a fishing holiday in SouthernIreland. One of the boys disappears mysteriously and an extensive search, involving divers and helicopter, fails to find the boy. Blame Culture in The NationalPress, and criticism at home, leave his reputation in tatters as he was held responsible. He is forced from his job. Two years later he receives a postcard telling him to "Ask Mary McMahon what happened to the boy" On his return to Ireland, he discovers links with a terrorist cell., and In a dramatic police operation Joe Riordon is charge with the boy's death and body is recovered.The Final Piece (the sequel)With Joe Riordon's trial imminent, and with two attempts on his own life, Tom discovers that his previous statements have disappeared, and his friend Gaurda officer Finbar Reeve, comes to England to persuade him to go to Ireland to give his evidence in court. With the support and encouragement of Fin, Anne Pentaligon, a new friend, and her barrister brother Adam, Tom heads for a secret location at Kildermy Priory while he waits for the time to come for him to give his testimony. Once at court he faces his nemesis and gives his evidence. He is able to make a final reconciliation with the mother of the missing boy.

Two years after the mysterious disappearance of one of his pupils, discredited teacher Tom Ellison returns to Ireland after receiving a cryptic postcard that might help to solve the mystery and restore his reputation. His return to the scene of his worst nightmare triggers a series of dramatic events, including an attempt on his own life, and the mysterious death of the woman he believes might be the key to his search. Links to terrorism, lead to the dramatic arrest of the perpetrators and the recovery of the boy's body.Watch out for the Sequel coming out in the New Year: The Final Peace

Jennifer Ormiston, a lively and controversial local radio presenter, is found dead in an antique bath in her upmarket flat, an apparent suicide. Three weeks earlier, we meet a number of very different characters, all of whom are connected in some way to Jennifer Ormiston: the mother of a traumatised child, her husband and brother-in-law, both respected professionals, a newly-appointed Catholic priest and a woman with a troubled past, recovering in a secure psychiatric hospital. A series of threatening letters, dark memories from the past and fraught relationships play their part in the inquiry by Detective Sergeant Tim Laughland into a mysterious disappearance and what turns out to be the murder of Jennifer Ormiston, all the while navigating his own relationship with his on-off partner and fellow officer. As the possible suspects mount up, Laughland and his superior officer are plunged into a fast-moving investigation, the conclusion of which is both shocking and unexpected.

Parrots are considered to be one of the most intelligent types of bird and it is their innate characteristics that have made them popular to keep as pets since the Roman times, although parrot-keeping reached its peak only in the last century. Their popularity can be attributed to their colourful plumage, their intelligence and flair for mimicry, their playful behaviour and ability to bond with human beings. Naturally they require a considerable amount of dedicated care, attention and psychological stimulation in order to lead happy, balanced and contented lives. It is therefore essential that parrot owners are aware of their pet's needs, day-to-day requirements and their responsibilities as owners. This new paperback edition for 2021 covers the day to day care of your parrot; how to create the right environment for your parrot; dietary needs and the importance of feeding a balance diet; practical advice on grooming and feather plucking; common disease in parrots; recognising the symptoms; managing behaviour and effective training. Finally, there is a chapter on breeding parrots; incubation and hand rearing.

This guide discusses the principles and theory of temperature-programmed reduction (TPR) used for sold materials characterization. It describes the recent trends, instrumentation needed, as well as the application of TPR in heterogeneous catalysis, materials science, and analytical chemistry.

Internationally renowned writer, broadcaster and author Alan Jones has tirelessly reported on every aspect of Argento's career for more than three decades. Every single feature, interview, review and in-depth look at Argento's multi-faceted universe was meticulously collated into one stunning, Sold Out volume, originally called Profondo Argento. Available again at last, now under a new title and cover, Dario Argento: The Man, the Myths and the Magic includes a wealth of fresh material and interviews exclusively conducted for this exhaustive overview of Argento's extraordinary body of work. Illustrated with rare stills, posters and candid behind-the-scenes photos from the author's private collection, Jones probes deep into the psyche and methodology of one of the world's most celebrated genre directors - and in doing so also uncovers the luminous chaos of the entire Italian Film Industry itself. Limited Edition, available in hardback only. From his early beginnings scripting Sergio Leone's Once Upon a Time in the West, his directorial breakthrough with the chic giallo The Bird with the Crystal Plumage and his ground-breaking soundtrack use of the progressive rock group Goblin, to producing the gut-wrenching Dawn of the Dead, his Terror Trilogy with his Hollywood superstar daughter Asia and helming his latest thriller Dracula 3D, everything you ever wanted to know about Dario Argento but were afraid to ask is all here. Rarely has any journalist ever been granted such wide access to the life and work of his all-time favourite director. Yet that's precisely what happened to internationally renowned writer, broadcaster and author Alan Jones who won the respect of Dario Argento for his detailed location reports and critical assessments of the Italian Master of the Macabre. Features full-length interviews with: Asia Argento, Claudio Argento, Fiore Argento, Lamberto Bava, Roy Bava, Simon Boswell, Michael Brandon, Chiara Caselli, Luigi Cozzi, Liam Cunningham, Keith Emerson, Franco Ferrini, Jessica Harper, Udo Kier, Daria Nicolodi, Stefania Rocca, George A. Romero, Gianni Romoli, Dardano Sacchetti, Julian Sands, Tom Savini, Claudio Simonetti, Michele Soavi, Sergio Stivaletti, Max Von Sydow, Ronnie Taylor, Luciano Tovoli. All-new illustrations. Never-before-seen behind the scenes photos, exclusive shots specially produced for this book, rare artwork and stills. This book features full coverage of Argento's new film Dracula 3D.

Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models (Volume V in the Working Guides to Estimating and Forecasting series) goes part way to debunking the myth that research and development cost are somewhat random, as under certain conditions they can be observed to follow a pattern of behaviour referred to as a Norden-Rayleigh Curve, which unfortunately has to be truncated to stop the myth from becoming a reality! However, there is a practical alternative in relation to a particular form of PERT-Beta Curve.However, the major emphasis of this volume is the use of Monte Carlo Simulation as a general technique for narrowing down potential outcomes of multiple interacting variables or cost drivers. Perhaps the most common of these in the evaluation of Risk, Opportunity and Uncertainty. The trouble is that many Monte Carlo Simulation tools are ‘black boxes’ and too few estimators and forecasters really appreciate what is happening inside the ‘black box’. This volume aims to resolve that and offers tips into things that might need to be considered to remove some of the uninformed random input that often creates a misinformed misconception of ‘it must be right!’Monte Carlo Simulation can be used to model variable determine Critical Paths in a schedule, and is key to modelling Waiting Times and cues with random arisings. Supported by a wealth of figures and tables, this is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.

Probability, Statistics and Other Frightening Stuff (Volume II of the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting series) considers many of the commonly used Descriptive Statistics in the world of estimating and forecasting. It considers values that are representative of the ‘middle ground’ (Measures of Central Tendency), and the degree of data scatter (Measures of Dispersion and Shape) around the ‘middle ground’ values.A number of Probability Distributions and where they might be used are discussed, along with some fascinating and useful ‘rules of thumb’ or short-cut properties that estimators and forecasters can exploit in plying their trade. With the help of a ‘Correlation Chicken’, the concept of partial correlation is explained, including how the estimator or forecaster can exploit this in reflecting varying levels of independence and imperfect dependence between an output or predicted value (such as cost) and an input or predictor variable such as size.Under the guise of ‘Tails of the unexpected’ the book concludes with two chapters devoted to Hypothesis Testing (or knowing when to accept or reject the validity of an assumed estimating relationship), and a number of statistically-based tests to help the estimator to decide whether to include or exclude a data point as an ‘outlier’, one that appears not to be representative of that which the estimator is tasked to produce. This is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.

Best Fit Lines and Curves, and Some Mathe-Magical Transformations (Volume III of the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting series) concentrates on techniques for finding the Best Fit Line or Curve to some historical data allowing us to interpolate or extrapolate the implied relationship that will underpin our prediction. A range of simple ‘Moving Measures’ are suggested to smooth the underlying trend and quantify the degree of noise or scatter around that trend. The advantages and disadvantages are discussed and a simple way to offset the latent disadvantage of most Moving Measure Techniques is provided. Simple Linear Regression Analysis, a more formal numerical technique that calculates the line of best fit subject to defined ‘goodness of fit’ criteria. Microsoft Excel is used to demonstrate how to decide whether the line of best fit is a good fit, or just a solution in search of some data. These principles are then extended to cover multiple cost drivers, and how we can use them to quantify 3-Point Estimates.With a deft sleight of hand, certain commonly occurring families of non-linear relationships can be transformed mathe-magically into linear formats, allowing us to exploit the powers of Regression Analysis to find the Best Fit Curves. The concludes with an exploration of the ups and downs of seasonal data (Time Series Analysis). Supported by a wealth of figures and tables, this is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.