Anthony H. Cordesman

This comprehensive analysis documents the military forces in each Middle Eastern country at the end of the Cold War. Cordesman discusses security developments and provides a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the strength and effectiveness of every army, navy, air force, and air defence force in the region. He further assesses post-Cold War modernization and expansions plans and each country’s internal security situations, the role the military plays in its government and internal tensions and civil wars. Special attention is paid to Iran and Iraq and the author examines the military changes in both countries as responses to the Iran-Iraq and the First Gulf War.After the Storm is unique in combining the evaluation of conventional forces with assessments of developments in biological, chemical and nuclear weapons and provides a coherent picture of the state of the military in the Middle East in the early 1990s. Summary tables and charts present keys statistics for the region, formatted to allow quick country by country comparisons.

The ongoing confrontation with Iran, the war against ISIL, the instability in Iraq, the Civil war in Syria, and the conflict in Yemen have all caused major changes in the security situation in the Persian Gulf and in the regional military balance. The strategic partnership between Arab Gulf states, and with the United States and other outside states, must now evolve to deal with conventional military threats and a range of new threats, including ideological extremists, non-state actors and their state sponsors, and a growing range of forces designed to fight asymmetric wars. This new report from the CSIS Burke Chair in Strategy provides a 2015 assessment of the Gulf military balance, the military capabilities of each Gulf state, the role of the United States as a security partner, and the priorities for change in the structure of both the Gulf Cooperation Council and the Arab Gulf military partnership with the United States. The assessment goes far beyond the conventional military balance and examines how force developments in the region affect joint and asymmetric warfare, missiles and missile defense, nuclear forces, as well as terrorism, the role of non-state actors, and outside powers.

The Arabian Gulf is now involved in a massive arms race, triggered largely by the fear that Iran will try to use its military forces to intimidate or dominate its neighbors. Iran has threatened to close the Gulf and carried out a wide range of large military exercises to show its capabilities. And Iran has steadily increased its ability to exploit the threat of conventional and asymmetric warfare to maritime traffic in the Gulf. The buildup of Iran’s naval, air, and missile capabilities poses a wide range of threats to maritime traffic into and outside of the Gulf.

This report tracks and analyzes trends in Chinese military strategy, force structure, and regional activity. Open source material is used to detail how each branch of the People’s Liberation Army has pursued modernization. Chinese perspectives on their military’s role and development are featured, as well as the views of other relevant regional actors. The purpose of this report is to provide the basis for an unclassified dialogue on the military developments in China. By presenting data on the regional military balance alongside perspectives on China’s military development, the Burke Chair hopes that readers can better understand how China’s strategic goals, military development, and regional views interact with each other.

The Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is one of the most areas of the world in human terms. This study provides a comprehensive overview of the subregions and countries in the IOR, drawing heavily on a new country risk assessment model developed by Abdullah Toukan, a senior associate with the Burke Chair at CSIS. It provides detailed graphs, tables, and maps covering the IOR as a whole, each major subregion, and each of the thirty-two countries in the region as well as the impact of U.S. and Chinese military forces.

Iraq is a nation in crisis bordering on civil war. The country now faces growing violence, a steady rise in Sunni Islamist extremism, an increasingly authoritarian leader that favors Iraq’s Sunnis, and growing ethnic tension between Arabs and Kurds. The recent Iraqi election offers little promise that it can correct the corruption, the weaknesses in its security forces, and the critical failures in governance, economic development, and leadership. The problems Iraq faces in 2014 are a legacy of mistakes made during and after the U.S.-led invasion in 2003, but increasingly the nation is dealing with the self-inflicted wounds of its leaders who abuse human rights, repress opposing factions, and misuse the Iraqi police and security forces to their own end.

The United States faces major challenges in dealing with Iran, the threat of terrorism, and the tide of political instability in the Arabian Peninsula. The presence of some of the world’s largest reserves of oil and natural gas, vital shipping lanes, and Shia populations throughout the region have made the peninsula the focal point of US and Iranian strategic competition. Moreover, large youth populations, high unemployment rates, and political systems with highly centralized power bases have posed other economic, political, and security challenges that the Gulf states must address and that the United States must take into consideration when forming strategy and policy.

The United States faces major challenges in dealing with Iran, the threat of terrorism, and the tide of political instability in the Arabian Peninsula. The presence of some of the world’s largest reserves of oil and natural gas, vital shipping lanes, and Shia populations throughout the region have made the peninsula the focal point of US and Iranian strategic competition. Moreover, large youth populations, high unemployment rates, and political systems with highly centralized power bases have posed other economic, political, and security challenges that the Gulf states must address and that the United States must take into consideration when forming strategy and policy.

The United States faces major challenges in dealing with Iran, the threat of terrorism, and the tide of political instability in the Arabian Peninsula. The presence of some of the world’s largest reserves of oil and natural gas, vital shipping lanes, and Shia populations throughout the region have made the peninsula the focal point of US and Iranian strategic competition. Moreover, large youth populations, high unemployment rates, and political systems with highly centralized power bases have posed other economic, political, and security challenges that the Gulf states must address and that the United States must take into consideration when forming strategy and policy.

This report analyzes four key aspects of US and Iranian strategic competition--sanctions, energy, arms control, and regime change. Its primary focus is on the ways in which the sanctions applied to Iran have changed US and Iranian competition since the fall of 2011. This escalation has been spurred by the creation of a series of far stronger US unilateral sanctions and the European Union’s imposition of equally strong sanctions, both of which affect Iran’s ability to export, its financial system, and its overall economy.

China’s military development has become a key focus of US security policy as well as that of virtually all Asia-Pacific states. This report from the CSIS Burke Chair in Strategy examines trends in Chinese strategy, military spending, and military forces based on Chinese defense white papers and other official Chinese sources; US reporting by the Department of Defense and other defense agencies; and other government sources, including Japanese and Korean defense white papers and the International Monetary Fund. The analysis also draws on the work of experts outside of government, various research centers, and nongovernmental organizations.

The Evolving Military Balance in the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia describes the strategy, force deployments, and the military balance in potential current and future scenarios involving the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Republic of Korea, People’s Republic of China, Japan, and the United States. The analysis in these volumes shows how tensions between the Koreas—and the potential involvement of the China, Japan, Russia, and the United States—create a nearly open-ended spectrum of possible conflicts. These range from posturing and threats (“wars of intimidation”) to a major conventional conflict on the Korean Peninsula to intervention by outside powers like the United States and China to the extreme of nuclear conflict. The analysis shows that the Korean balance is sharply affected by the uncertain mix of cooperation and competition between the United States and China. The U.S. rebalancing of its forces to Asia and the steady modernization of Chinese forces, in particular the growth of Chinese sea-air-missile capabilities, affect the balance in the Koreas and Northeast Asia. They also raise the possibility of far more intense conflicts that could extend far beyond the boundaries of the Koreas.

After more than a decade of fighting in Afghanistan, the United States and its allies are set to transfer security responsibilities to Afghan forces in 2014. This transition poses many challenges, and much will depend on the future of Afghan politics, governance, corruption, development, security, and economics. How the United States manages the transition is vital for any hopes of creating a secure Afghanistan, as well as preventing the reemergence of the Taliban and other terrorist groups. The Afghan War in 2013 honestly assesses the benefits, costs, and risks involved in transition. It is essential reading for an in-depth understanding of the complex forces and intricacies of the United States’ role in Afghanistan and the difficulties involved in creating a stable Afghanistan in 2014 and beyond. Afghanistan is still at war and will probably be at war long after 2014. At the same time, the coming cuts in the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and cuts in military and civil aid, along with the country’s fractious politics and insecurity, will interact with a wide range of additional factors that threaten to derail the transition. These factors, examined in this three-volume study, highlight the need to make the internal political, governmental, economic, and security dimensions of the transition as effective as possible. This will require a new degree of realism about what the Afghans can and cannot accomplish, about the best approaches to shaping the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), and the need for better planned and managed outside aid.

After more than a decade of fighting in Afghanistan, the United States and its allies are set to transfer security responsibilities to Afghan forces in 2014. This transition poses many challenges, and much will depend on the future of Afghan politics, governance, corruption, development, security, and economics. How the United States manages the transition is vital for any hopes of creating a secure Afghanistan, as well as preventing the reemergence of the Taliban and other terrorist groups. The Afghan War in 2013 honestly assesses the benefits, costs, and risks involved in transition. It is essential reading for an in-depth understanding of the complex forces and intricacies of the United States’ role in Afghanistan and the difficulties involved in creating a stable Afghanistan in 2014 and beyond. Afghanistan is still at war and will probably be at war long after 2014. At the same time, the coming cuts in the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and cuts in military and civil aid, along with the country’s fractious politics and insecurity, will interact with a wide range of additional factors that threaten to derail the transition. These factors, examined in this three-volume study, highlight the need to make the internal political, governmental, economic, and security dimensions of the transition as effective as possible. This will require a new degree of realism about what the Afghans can and cannot accomplish, about the best approaches to shaping the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), and the need for better planned and managed outside aid.

After more than a decade of fighting in Afghanistan, the United States and its allies are set to transfer security responsibilities to Afghan forces in 2014. This transition poses many challenges, and much will depend on the future of Afghan politics, governance, corruption, development, security, and economics. How the United States manages the transition is vital for any hopes of creating a secure Afghanistan, as well as preventing the reemergence of the Taliban and other terrorist groups. The Afghan War in 2013 honestly assesses the benefits, costs, and risks involved in transition. It is essential reading for an in-depth understanding of the complex forces and intricacies of the United States’ role in Afghanistan and the difficulties involved in creating a stable Afghanistan in 2014 and beyond. Afghanistan is still at war and will probably be at war long after 2014. At the same time, the coming cuts in the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and cuts in military and civil aid, along with the country’s fractious politics and insecurity, will interact with a wide range of additional factors that threaten to derail the transition. These factors, examined in this three-volume study, highlight the need to make the internal political, governmental, economic, and security dimensions of the transition as effective as possible. This will require a new degree of realism about what the Afghans can and cannot accomplish, about the best approaches to shaping the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), and the need for better planned and managed outside aid.

This insightful study explores how a small state with limited economic resources has played an important role in vital, ongoing Middle Eastern political and security controversies. Global Security Watch—Jordan provides readers with an expert, comprehensive overview of significant aspects of Jordan's security, including its political, diplomatic, and alliance-building dimensions. Examining how Jordan emerged from a small Arab kingdom with arbitrary borders and no clear national identity to a confident and modernizing state, the book shows how today's nation effectively copes with a variety of geopolitical challenges. Jordan's close relations with the United States are examined, with special attention paid to ongoing U.S.-Jordanian cooperation in fighting al-Qaeda and its terrorist allies. The work also probes Jordan's involvement in many of the great conflicts in the contemporary Middle East, for example, that between the Israelis and Palestinians, clarifying Jordanian policies, while helping the reader understand many of the regional problems Jordan finds itself forced to address.

A thorough examination of the nation of Saudi Arabia, focusing on the current state of affairs and potential future challenges. Saudi Arabia: National Security in a Troubled Region provides a comprehensive, up-to-date analysis of Saudi Arabia's strategic security efforts, both within the country and as a stabilizing regional presence. In this meticulously researched book, acclaimed geopolitical scholar Anthony Cordesman, well-known for his role as ABC News's national security analyst, takes readers inside the Saudi security structure for an unprecedented look at its internal and external forces, policymaking, and careful balancing of regional and East/West relationships. In Saudi Arabia, Anthony Cordesman shows how the Kingdom is responding to an unstable Iraq, a potentially nuclear Iran, the needs of its fellow Southern Gulf states, and the ongoing threat of terrorism inside its borders. Cordesman also considers a number of socioeconomic and demographic factors that could bring dramatic changes within the Kingdom in the near future. Nonpartisan, unbiased, and based on the author's unparalleled access to high profile Saudi officials, the book offers a level of expertise and insight no other consideration of the subject can match.

This book provides an in-depth examination of the serious security implications that Iran's nuclear program has on a region that is already plagued by insecurity and conflict. Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction: The Birth of a Regional Nuclear Arms Race? is an expert insider's look at Iran's current and potential ability to wage both conventional and asymmetrical warfare, and the options available for dealing with a nuclear Iran. Are we on the brink of a regional nuclear arms race in the Middle East? In this urgent volume, Anthony Cordesman and Adam Seitz examine how Iran's nuclear ambitions have already altered security policy for the United States, Iran's neighbors, and the international community. Cordesman and Seitz address the full range of issues related to Iran's quest for nuclear weapons, including its emphasis on medium- and long-range missiles, the decline of Iran's conventional military capabilities, and continued Iranian efforts to undercut the spread of democracy in the region.

Israel and Syria: The Military Balance and Prospects of War provides a detailed and current picture of the military capabilities of Israel and Syria, reflecting the changes and lessons of the Israel-Hezbollah War in 2006 and other recent conflicts. It offers extensive analysis, supported by tables and charts, on the trends in military spending, arms imports and technology transfers, military manpower, weapons, and orders of battle. By going beyond military balance analysis, Cordesman examines the probable nature and results of a future war and how the readiness, capability, tactics, and technology on each side would shape its outcome.Israel and Syria: The Military Balance and Prospects of War shows how a dangerous new conflict between both nations would cripple all strides in strategic gains and Israeli-Syrian diplomacy. On the other hand, peace negotiations would offer a safer, more productive relationship. Israel and Syria need to consider the true nature of their military balance and the undermining effect to both nations as well as the costs and risks of any future conflict. Although Syria does retain important options in terms of asymmetric and proxy conflicts, it would fail in its attempt to recapture the Golan. While Israel would almost certainly win a future war, it cannot make gains from acquiring more Syrian territory and a new war would create major problems with its neighbors and in dealing with the Palestinians.The risk of a new Israeli-Syrian conflict is so serious that both sides need to understand the true nature of their military balance, and the costs and risks of any future conflict. Israel and Syria: The Military Balance and Prospects of War shows how dangerous a new conflict could be, that neither side can make lasting strategic gains from a future conflict, and that peace negotiations offer a far safer and more productive option. It provides a detailed and current picture of the military capabilities of Israel and Syria, reflecting the changes and lessons of the Israel-Hezbollah War in 2006 and other recent conflicts. Israel and Syria: The Military Balance and Prospects of War provides extensive analysis, supported by tables and charts, on the trends in military spending, arms imports and technology transfers, military manpower, weapons, and orders of battle. By going beyond military balance analysis, Cordesman examines the probable nature and results of a future war and how the readiness, capability, tactics, and technology on each side would shape its outcome.