Ben Connable

This volume tested conventional wisdom about how insurgencies end against the evidence from 89 insurgencies. It compares a quantitative and qualitative analysis of insurgency case studies with lessons from insurgency and counterinsurgency literature. While no two insurgencies are the same, the authors find that modern insurgencies last about ten years and that a government's chance of winning may increase slightly over time. Other findings include that withdrawal of state support cripples insurgencies, civil defense forces are useful for both sides, and pseudo democracies fare poorly against insurgents.