Beth J. Asch

This report documents efforts to implement a capability for the U.S. Department of Defense to assess alternative policies to enhance officer retention using estimates of behavioral responses to policy and provides source code and foundations of a spreadsheet version of the model.

RAND Arroyo Center researchers analyzed a proposal allowing vested Army reservists to receive military retirement benefits immediately upon retiring from the Selected Reserve. They assessed effects on the size and experience mix of the Army reserve and active components, for enlisted personnel and officers, and for the steady state and the transition to it. They concluded the proposal would save the Army $800 million per year in personnel costs.

Draws on Department of Defense guidance, the economics and defense manpower literatures, interviews with personnel at the National Security Agency/Central Security Service, and an exploratory quantitative analysis to identify the factors that affect the most cost-effective mix of military personnel, government civilians, and contractors for providing language capability in the intelligence community.

This research extends the dynamic retention model to simulate the transition to the steady state, providing researchers with the ability to assess the effects of workforce management policies both in the steady state and in the transition to the steady state as well as to assess the effects of alternative implementation strategies. It helps policymakers better understand workforce dynamics and how they respond to policy change.

Mexico has undertaken reforms in recent years to professionalize its police. This report draws on the literature on corruption and personnel incentives and analyzes police reform in Mexico. It addresses the roots of corruption and the tools that could be used to mitigate it and provides an initial assessment of the reforms' effectiveness. The results suggest some progress, though police corruption still remains high and more work is needed.

Using data from 2007 through 2009, the authors tabulate the incidence and prevalence of recruiter irregularities. Exploring Army contract data, the authors compare the characteristics of those signing contracts at the end of the recruiting month--when recruiters are under the greatest pressure to meet their monthly recruiting quotas--with those signed earlier in the month.

To determine whether enlistment and reenlistment bonuses are effective in maintaining or increasing the supply of personnel to the armed forces, the authors provide an empirical analysis of bonuses' effects. They developed models to assess whether bonuses have contributed to recruiting success and retention, whether they have been used flexibly, and whether they have been used efficiently, using data for each service, but particularly the Army.

Since 2000, black representation among high-quality recruits in the Army has decreased, while Hispanic representation has increased; in the Navy, black representation has remained stable and Hispanic representation has increased. The authors identify factors that explain these trends and consider which policies are likely to be most effective in increasing high-quality enlistments among black, Hispanic, and white youth.

Although polls of Hispanic youth show a strong propensity to serve in the military, Hispanics are nonetheless underrepresented among military recruits. The authors discuss the major characteristics that disproportionately disqualify Hispanic youth and explore actions that could be taken to increase Hispanic enlistments.

Military compensation is a pillar of the all-volunteer force. Its importance is such that it is reviewed every four years to determine whether it is adequate to meet the U.S. military's objectives. To inform the 10th Quadrennial Review of Military Compensation, this monograph presents the results of estimation and simulations of a model designed to assess the U.S. military's current retirement-benefit system and several policy alternatives.

Provides input regarding alternativec ompensation proposals for the reserve components and the broader issues surrounding reserve retirement reform. Four bills are pending in Congress to reduce the age at which reservists can begin to receive retirement benefits. This report provides input regarding these proposals and the broader issues surrounding reserve retirement reform. Although it is important to recognize that deferring some portion of compensation can be cost-effective, the results argue in favor of providing compensation on a current rather than a deferred basis.

One-liner: Discusses how manpower and personnel policies can be used to produce the changes in military culture needed for transformation. 450-character abstract: Military transformation requires a reassessment of the military's current manpower and personnel policies. The authors discuss the types of personnel management and compensation policy changes that might be required and examine several compensation approaches that could increase flexibility in managing personnel and support a culture of creativity, entrepreneurial activity, and intelligent risk-taking.

The military must attract, retain, and promote high-quality personnel. This monograph examines its ability to meet these goals. Using the quality index, we find that those who stay until midcareer and are promoted are significantly higher quality. The armed services must attract, retain, and promote high-quality personnel. This monograph examines their ability to meet these goals in the past. Using the quality index, we find that those who complete their first terms, who stay until year of service (YOS) 8 or YOS12, and those who are promoted to higher grades are significantly higher quality. Our conclusions differ from those drawn from traditional measures because our measure includes information that cannot be predicted at entry but is instead revealed on the job.

Presents the results of a national survey of college youth on their level of interest in military enlistment under various hypothetical programs. Reports the results of a national survey of college youth who were offered a series of hypothetical enlistment programs and were asked to rate their level of interest under each program. A USD65,000 college loan repayment program and a program allowing dropouts to enlist directly without first returning to college generated the most positive enlistment propensity.

Preliminary assessment of new educational benefits programs, such as those offered by some active components, to help reserve components attract high-quality recruits and of whether potential of programs warrants further evaluation. 450-character abstract: Preliminary assessment of new educational benefits programs, such as those offered by some active components, to help reserve components attract high-quality recruits, and of whether potential of programs warrant further evaluation. Recommended are experimenting with recruiting programs that minimize the risk of activation while recruits attend college and involving an evaluation component in such programs.

One-liner: The authors examine the current Air Force pay system, suggest ways it could be strengthened, and assess two pay concepts: skill pay and capability pay. 450-character abstract: Recruiting difficulties and manning shortfalls in certain specialties have prompted the Air Force to consider significant alterations to the compensation system. The authors describe Air Force recruitment and retention, then examine the current pay system and suggest how it could be strengthened. Finally, they assess two pay concepts, skill pay and capability pay, and consider ways to analyze their effects and cost-effectiveness. Recruiting difficulties during the 1990s, as well as manning shortfalls in certain specialties, have prompted the Air Force to consider significant alterations to the compensation system. The authors first describe Air Force recruitment and retention and compare them to the situation in the other military services.They then examine the current pay system and suggest ways it could be strengthened: monitoring civilian wages more closely; reshaping the basic pay table to make basic pay grow increasingly rapidly with respect to rank; restructuring selective reenlistment bonuses to make them worth more; and revamping Hostile Fire Pay/Imminent Danger Pay from a flat monthly rate to a level that depends on the number of hostile episodes. The book also provides an initial assessment of two pay concepts: skill pay (intended to provide higher pay for certain valuable skills) and capability pay (intended to provide compensation and incentives for superior individual capability, especially current and prospective future leadership potential). The authors discuss methods and standards for establishing these pays and examine questions of fairness and the administrative and human costs of implementing new systems.Finally, they consider ways to analyze the effects and cost-effectiveness of skill pay and capability pay: microsimulation modeling, a demonstration experiment, and surveys to query Air Force personnel about their retention intentions under a large number of potential skill pay and capability pay alternatives.