Christopher Paul

Recent RAND research identified practices and contextual factors associated with greater or lesser degrees of success in security cooperation. A related diagnostic tool maximizes the utility of these analyses and can help defense planners identify potential mismatches between security cooperation funding, priorities, and propensity for success with a given country.

Building on a 2010 RAND study of the 30 insurgencies begun and completed between 1978 and 2008, this study added 41 new cases to the data set, allowing comparisons across all 71 insurgencies begun and completed worldwide since World War II to distill the paths to victory. With many more cases to compare, the study was able to more rigorously test the previous findings and address several critical questions that the earlier study could not.

In-depth case studies of 41 insurgencies since World War II break each conflict into phases and examine the trajectory that led to the outcome (insurgent win or counterinsurgent win). Detailed analysis of the findings, including those from an original set of 30 insurgencies (for a total of 71 historical cases), is available in the companion volume, Paths to Victory: Lessons from Modern Insurgencies.

A RAND team conducted a Delphi expert elicitation exercise, the results of which offer an assessment of the contemporary security situation in Mexico through the lens of existing RAND research on urban instability and unrest, historical insurgencies, and defense-sector reform. Assessment scorecards from these projects were used to obtain input from the expert panel and to guide the resulting discussion.

The Global Train and Equip "1206" Program is a multiagency security cooperation program that supports U.S.-led capacity-building activities focused on counterterrorism and stability operations with foreign military partners. Interviews with policymakers and subject-matter experts, combined with a survey of program stakeholders, revealed some challenges and best approaches to establishing an assessment framework for 1206 Program projects.

This volume in the Contemporary Military, Strategic, and Security Issues series presents a concise introduction to the evolution, key concepts, discourse, and future options for improved strategic communication in today's U.S. government.Strategic Communication: Origins, Concepts, and Current Debates is a groundbreaking study, the first book explicitly focused on strategic communication as it is currently used and discussed in the U.S. government. Written specifically for those who are new to strategic communication, this incisive book clarifies the definitional debate, explores the history of the term and its practice, and embraces a broad, practical definition.But that is only the beginning. Moving to the realities of the issue, author Christopher Paul reviews dozens of government reports on strategic communication and public diplomacy released since 2000, examining specific proposals related to improving strategic communication in the U.S. government and explaining the disagreements. Most important, he offers consensus and clarity for the way ahead, discussing how disparate elements of the government can be coordinated to master—and win—the "war of ideas" through fully integrated and synchronized communications and actions.

A collection of the 30 most recent resolved insurgencies, covering the period 1978 to 2008, along with a bank of 76 factors that helped or hindered the COIN force in each case and in each phase of each case, supplements an analysis of historical and contemporary insurgencies, providing valuable lessons for U.S. engagement in and support for COIN operations.

Paul explores both how and why U.S. military intervention decisions are made. Pursuit of that inquiry requires the identification of decision participants, thorough examination of the decision making processes they employ, and recognition of several factors that influence intervention decisions: the national interest, legitimacy, and the legacies of previous policies. This book provides chapter length treatment of each of these issues. The research is based on detailed historical case studies for the four U.S. Marines on the beach military interventions in Latin America since World War II: The Dominican Republic (1965), Grenada (1983), Panama (1989), and Haiti (1994). Additional cases (notably Afghanistan and Iraq) enter the discussion when considering findings with broader implications.Of the existing theories of governance that compete to explain government policy making, Paul finds that elite theory provides the best general model for intervention decision making, but that the notions of both pluralist and class theorists contribute to a complete explanation, and sometimes in an unexpected way. Findings also indicate considerable contribution from and constraint by institutional sources. However, far from finding that institutional factors are wholly deterministic, this research offers support for a choice-within-constraints model. Conclusions suggest that top decision-makers (especially the president) enjoy wide latitude in framing the national interest and in choosing where to and where not to intervene.

Constrained budgets and increasing costs have forced the U.S. Navy to search for ways to reduce the annual operating costs of the fleet. One expensive driver of those costs is underway training of surface combatant ship crews. Focusing on the DDG-51 Arleigh Burkeclass of surface combatants, RAND examines whether and how increased use of simulators could be substituted for underway training without any decrease in readiness.The U.S. Navy is looking for ways to reduce the annual operating costs of the fleet. RAND examines whether and how an increased use of simulators could reduce costly underway training days for DDG-51class ships while sustaining readiness.

How would the world react if the existence of the human soul could be scientifically proven? Austin Cole is a young neural surgeon who makes an unusual discovery at Emory University's Neural Laboratory in Atlanta. The world quickly becomes interested in his findings and Cole soon finds himself pitted against the kings and gods of politics, science and religion. Yet things are not as they seem. An altered autopsy report, a double murder, an underworld figure with unlimited resources and a powerful political candidate all add to the swirling mystery and to a conclusion that will blow away the current understanding of man's place on earth

A no-nonsense treatment of information operations, this handbook makes clear what does and does not fall under information operations, how the military plans and executes such efforts, and what the role of IO ought to be in the war of ideas. Paul provides detailed accounts of the doctrine and practice of the five core information operations capabilities (psychological operations, military deception, operations security, electronic warfare, and computer network operations) and the three related capabilities (public affairs, civil-military operations, and military support to public diplomacy). The discussion of each capability includes historical examples, explanations of tools and forces available, and current challenges faced by that community. An appendix of selected excerpts from military doctrine ties the work firmly to the military theory behind information operations. Paul argues that contemporary IO's mixing of capabilities focused on information content with those focused on information systems conflates apples with the apple carts. This important study concludes that information operations would be better poised to contribute to the war of ideas if IO were reorganized, separating content capabilities from systems capabilities and separating the employment of black (deceptive or falsely attributed) information from white (wholly truthful and correctly attributed) information.

Describes a framework to guide assessments of the availability of data regarding U.S. anti- and counterterrorism systems, countermeasures, and defenses for planning attacks on the U.S. air, rail, and sea transportation infrastructure. Overall, the framework is useful for assessing what kind of information would be easy or hard for potential attackers to find.

Enlisting Madison Avenue extracts lessons from business practices and adapts them to U.S. military efforts in a unique approach to shaping the attitudes and behavior of local populations in a theater of operations. Foremost among these lessons are the concepts of branding, customer satisfaction, and segmentation of the target audience, all of which serve to maximize the impact and improve the outcome of U.S. shaping efforts.

This report describes an alternative business model for buying simulations and simulation training. This model hopes to align the financial incentives of industry participants with positive training and technology development outcomes by turning the acquisition of training simulators into a service acquisition with a private sector tool vendor marketplace to support it. The report examines the model in light of economic theory and related business models.

Imagine a world where the environment has been ravaged, murder and cruelty are running rampant, and natural catastrophes abound. Sound familiar? This gripping tale ('The Celestine Prophecy' meeting head on with 'Armageddon') tells the story of the impending battle to save our planet in the year 2012. But it is more than a story. It's real, and it's happening - now !

To assist the Air Force in the process of significantly changing the way it purchases goods and services, this monograph reviews related commerical-sector framework of metrics to track progress and refine procurement-workforce-development efforts over time.

An analysis of the relations between the military and the press explores the factors that led to the development of the embedded press and distinguishes the outcomes and goals for the two entities and for the public, including the "right to know." Focusing on the embedded press system deployed during Operation Iraqi Freedom, this book attempts to answer the following questions: How effective was the embedded press system in meeting the needs of the three main constituencies-the press, the military, and the citizens of the United States? What policy history led to the innovation of an embedded press system? Where are press-military relations likely to go in the future?