Colin P. Clarke

Building on a 2010 RAND study of the 30 insurgencies begun and completed between 1978 and 2008, this study added 41 new cases to the data set, allowing comparisons across all 71 insurgencies begun and completed worldwide since World War II to distill the paths to victory. With many more cases to compare, the study was able to more rigorously test the previous findings and address several critical questions that the earlier study could not.

In-depth case studies of 41 insurgencies since World War II break each conflict into phases and examine the trajectory that led to the outcome (insurgent win or counterinsurgent win). Detailed analysis of the findings, including those from an original set of 30 insurgencies (for a total of 71 historical cases), is available in the companion volume, Paths to Victory: Lessons from Modern Insurgencies.

A RAND team conducted a Delphi expert elicitation exercise, the results of which offer an assessment of the contemporary security situation in Mexico through the lens of existing RAND research on urban instability and unrest, historical insurgencies, and defense-sector reform. Assessment scorecards from these projects were used to obtain input from the expert panel and to guide the resulting discussion.

A collection of the 30 most recent resolved insurgencies, covering the period 1978 to 2008, along with a bank of 76 factors that helped or hindered the COIN force in each case and in each phase of each case, supplements an analysis of historical and contemporary insurgencies, providing valuable lessons for U.S. engagement in and support for COIN operations.