Cortez A Cooper

As the North Korean nuclear weapon threat has grown, many in the Republic of Korea (ROK) do not feel assured by the U.S. nuclear umbrella. They favor ROK development of nuclear weapons, a potential disaster for the ROK and the United States. The authors propose options for strengthening that assurance, including enhancing strategic clarity, coercing the North to freeze its nuclear weapons, and committing U.S. nuclear weapons to support the ROK.

This report assesses how China may react to expanded or varied U.S. military activities in the Indo-Pacific. It provides a framework of key factors likely to determine Chinese responses and identifies the characteristics of U.S. military activities that may either enhance deterrence of Chinese aggression or increase the risks of an escalatory Chinese reaction.

This study describes China s national and security strategies and its approach to war and escalation control; summarizes its military capabilities developments; and reviews its concepts for deterrence in strategic (nuclear, space, and cyber) and conventional domains. The study concludes with implications for U.S. policymakers and warfighters."

In this report, the authors explore possible future cooperation scenarios between the Russian Armed Forces and the People's Liberation Army by examining historical patterns of Russian and Chinese alliance behavior, military-to-military engagements between these two militaries, and three scenarios that illustrate how Russian and Chinese forces might operate together, as well as implications for U.S. policymakers, commanders, and planners.

In this report, the authors explore the equities of four middle powers-Australia, Canada, Japan, and the United Kingdom-and roles that they might play in deterring or limiting conflict between China and Taiwan over the Taiwan Strait. A country's equities are its long-term interests in a scenario, such as a cross-Strait conflict. Middle powers are nations that are not small but lack the size and influence to significantly disrupt global affairs.

The authors examine how direct combat experience has shaped the way the U.S. military approaches training and how indirect experience outside combat has shaped the approach of the People's Liberation Army (PLA). The authors then consider the extent to which training and operational model adaptations in both militaries have kept pace with an evolving global context and prepared the U.S. military and PLA for great power conflict.

This paper shares the results of an exercise hosted by the RAND Corporation to explore the risk of escalation from Chinese activities in the gray zone to conventional war. The results showed an overall low risk of Taiwanese escalation because of Chinese military power and Chinese and U.S. constraints on Taiwan's decisionmaking. The exercise's U.S. team would consider escalation to military force only if Taiwan faced an existential threat.

The Department of Defense has become increasingly focused on competition with China and Russia and the possibility of great power war. RAND researchers generated four plausible near-term war scenarios and assessed how they could shape the postwar strategic environment. These scenarios show the complex relationship between wartime and postwar goals, highlighting the importance of considering postwar outcomes in prewar planning.

Why do some Asian states consolidate democratic gains while others slide toward authoritarianism? In this report, RAND researchers use a literature review, statistical analysis, and case studies of Taiwan, Thailand, Sri Lanka, and Malaysia to study democratization and the factors that influence it among small Asian states, identify policies that can support democratization, and examine how external actors can help countries democratize.

As the political-military challenge from the People's Republic of China grows in the years ahead, Taiwan's reserve force may need to play a more prominent role in Taipei's strategic relationship with Beijing. The authors of this report assess Taiwan's current reserve force and discuss steps that Taiwan can take to enhance the role of the reserves in deterring and, if necessary, defending against a cross-Strait invasion.

In this country-level report in a series, the authors assess the impact of the changes in China's strategic behavior and U.S.-China relations over the past decade on Singapore in terms of its security policies and relationships in the Indo-Pacific region. The project also examines how the United States can improve its ability to work with allies and partners to maintain its advantage in long-term competition with China.

Chinese primary-source materials indicate that China is aggressively working toward becoming a global leader in big data analytics as part of its plan to achieve great power status. The authors of this report assessed a variety of primary sources, including specific ministry-level plans and guidance, and pinpointed how Beijing is using big data analytics to survey its domestic population and enhance its military capabilities.