Craig A Bond

This report presents the strengths and limitations of cost-effectiveness analysis and related metrics to inform the U.S. Army about whether, when, and how to usefully employ them for capability investment decisions. The authors discuss how complexity can increase as objectives become less clear cut, ancillary benefits and unintended consequences emerge, technologies become intertwined, boundaries change, and risk and uncertainty take hold.

This update of a previous report provides findings on economic activity supported by total Army spending in congressional districts for fiscal years 2014 through 2017. Using input/output models, researchers estimated that the Army directly spent approximately $80.1 million in the median congressional district and $1.3 billion in the median state in fiscal year 2017, translating into approximately 3,800 jobs per district and 48,000 jobs per state.

According to the U.S. Department of Defense, approximately one-third of military service members experience a permanent change of station (PCS) move every year. The authors used a mixed-methods approach to compile a list of PCS-related family disruptions and to understand what programs exist to address these disruptions.

This report presents findings on the economic activity supported by total Army spending in each of the 435 congressional districts for fiscal years 2012-2014. Using input/output models, researchers estimated that in FY 2014, the Army directly spent approximately $121 million in the median congressional district (in 2012 dollars), translating into about 4,200 jobs and contributing to $375 million of economic output.

Using an updated version of RAND's Recruiting Resource Model, the authors analyze the relationship between observed and alternative mixes of Army spending on recruiting resources (advertising, recruiters, and bonuses) and recruiting outcomes, particularly contracts and accessions. Results indicate that TV advertising and, to a lesser extent, recruiters are more cost-effective than bonuses at increasing enlistments.

Several U.S. Army resources and policies work together to produce recruits. Understanding their interactions under various circumstances enables the Army to use its limited resources more effectively and efficiently. The authors present a model--the Reserve Recruiting Resource Model--designed to optimize resources and policies to achieve future Army Reserve recruiting goals.

Florida's Miami-Dade and Broward counties are vulnerable to flooding and intrusion of saltwater into drinking water wells as a consequence of sea level rise, changes in precipitation, and the distribution of future asset growth across the region. The authors developed an integrated groundwater and economic model and decision support tool to help regional planners and decisionmakers focus mitigation actions on the most vulnerable areas.

Urban stormwater management is a growing challenge in many U.S. cities, and climate change is expected to add to this challenge. RAND researchers apply simulation modeling and economic valuation to estimate the potential benefits and costs of a green stormwater infrastructure (GSI) system in Pittsburgh's Negley Run watershed. The authors evaluate a series of GSI investments and make recommendations for how local actors should proceed.

A strategic goal of the post-hurricane recovery plan for Puerto Rico is developing a modern workforce. Authors describe a course of action for a workforce development system that addresses workforce shortages and brings longer-term benefits to individuals, the community, and the economy. This system includes strong K through postsecondary education and career pathways, and aligns training with the evolving labor market and local business needs.

The RAND Corporation and the Rockefeller Foundation formed a partnership to develop a modeling framework that can be used to estimate the net benefits of a resilience project. We call the framework the Resilience Dividend Valuation Model (RDVM). This report discusses the motivation for the RDVM, describes how we developed it, and offers a set of case studies to demonstrate how the RDVM can be applied across diverse settings.

This study examined U.S. Department of Defense permanent change of station programs to determine the potential for savings that could accrue by increasing the amount of time between moves. The research reviewed current policies and investigated the potential for incentive programs to encourage servicemembers to stay longer at their current stations. Potential implementation of an auction program was also discussed.

Through analysis of alternative courses of action and their effects on probability distributions estimated for performance, schedule, and cost, acquisition decisionmakers can understand the implications of certain risk-mitigating actions. They can examine technology, schedule, and cost trades between or within individual systems.