Cristina L Garafola

This report assesses how China may react to expanded or varied U.S. military activities in the Indo-Pacific. It provides a framework of key factors likely to determine Chinese responses and identifies the characteristics of U.S. military activities that may either enhance deterrence of Chinese aggression or increase the risks of an escalatory Chinese reaction.

Overseas military access and basing is a critical component of China's global military ambitions. In this report, the authors examine three case studies among the United States' competitors to help anticipate what Chinese overseas access and basing might look like in the 2030s. They assess the risks posed by Chinese military expansion and recommend U.S. strategies to help shape the environment in which Chinese global ambitions will unfold.

The authors develop a framework of 17 indicators to assess valuable attributes of potential host nations from Beijing's perspective, focusing not only on the utility of host nations (desirability) but also on China's ability to secure access (feasibility). They recommend strategies for the U.S. government, the U.S. Department of Defense, and the U.S. Army to better understand China's overseas plans and to prioritize risks to U.S. forces.

In order to defend itself and its national interests, and to maintain the trust of allies as a reliable security guarantor, the United States must match its national security policies with the resources available to support them. This report discusses the specific gaps between the stated strategic and defense policies of the United States and the resources and capabilities that would be required to implement those policies successfully.

China's approach to nuclear deterrence has been broadly consistent since its first test in 1964, but it has recently accelerated nuclear force modernization. China's strategic environment is likely to grow more complex, and nuclear constituencies are gaining a larger bureaucratic voice. Beijing is unlikely to change official nuclear policies but will probably increase emphasis on nuclear deterrence and may adjust the definition of key concepts.

The People's Liberation Army's (PLA's) growing ability to project and sustain power will rely on its logistics capabilities, systems, and processes. Understanding the PLA's approach to maintenance management is essential for assessing the PLA's ability to sustain a modernized force. The authors provide an overview of the PLA's approach to maintenance to inform a broader understanding about how the PLA plans to operate and sustain its forces.

The Trump administration pursued policies to confront China over its transgressive and anticompetitive economic behaviors, such as theft of technology and intellectual property and limitations on market access. In this report, the authors assess how the U.S. manufacturing, technology, and financial sectors viewed these policies and examine how to improve U.S. government interactions with the business community to support competition with China.

This is one of four reports based on RAND Project AIR FORCE Strategy and Doctrine Program research that assesses notable developments and implications of China's emerging aerospace expeditionary and power-projection capabilities, which will have important implications for the reach of China's military and its ability to protect China's emerging overseas interests.

This report analyzes key trends and themes in China s People s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) surface-to-air missile (SAM) unit training. After providing background information on China s air defense forces, the report introduces the basics of PLAAF SAM training, including training requirements, trends in recent training activities, and analysis of training themes."