Daniel M. Gerstein

RAND conducted an analysis of the effectiveness and efficiency of Australia's newly integrated Department of Immigration and Border Protection. The integration reflects an important inflection point in the history of customs, immigration, and border-management activities within the government of Australia.

April 2039. On the tense Latvia–Russia border, a U.S. Army platoon holds the defensive line. In the dead of night, the forward squad of humanoid robots suddenly disobeys orders and launches a cross-border attack. Watching through his brain–computer interface, the platoon leader can only stare in horror as events spiral too quickly for him to react. Has his unit just triggered World War III? The battlefield is no longer human territory alone. Augmented soldiers—Homo evolutis—are reshaping war itself. Created at the crossroads of artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and the Internet of Things, these new beings blur the line between man and machine. AI now offers decision-making and perception equal to—or beyond—that of humans. Biotechnology has resulted in soldiers with superhuman capabilites and programmable digital implants. In this networked world, humans are mere nodes in a vast digital web. But when machines act on their own initiative, who bears responsibility? And when enhanced humans begin to see themselves as a new species, what happens to loyalty, identity, and control? As war moves into uncharted territory, one soldier must confront a chilling question: can humanity survive its own evolution?

This book explores the evolution of the current U.S. research and development enterprise, asks whether this organization remains appropriate to the challenges we face today, and proposes strategies for better preparing for the global technology race shaping our future. Across the globe, nation states and societies, as well as corporations, technology developers, and even individuals, find themselves on the front lines of a global technology race. In the third decade of this century, the outlines of the contest have become clear. R&D spending, new methods such as innovation centers, and powerful technologies in governments and society are rapidly proliferating. Technology winners and losers are emerging. How did we arrive at this global technology fight? How and where will it be waged? What can we do to prepare for the future? Tech Wars examines the conditions that have led us to this point and introduces new strategies, organizational changes, and resource allocations that will help the United States respond to the challenges on the horizon.

In this report, the authors examine how the Department of Defense (DoD) coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination program was developed and implemented, determine how previous DoD vaccination programs influenced those decisions, and identify opportunities to strengthen the department's vaccination program, particularly against emerging infectious diseases, such as COVID-19.

This book explores the evolution of the current U.S. research and development enterprise, asks whether this organization remains appropriate to the challenges we face today, and proposes strategies for better preparing for the global technology race shaping our future.Across the globe, nation states and societies, as well as corporations, technology developers, and even individuals, find themselves on the front lines of a global technology race. In the third decade of this century, the outlines of the contest have become clear. R&D spending, new methods such as innovation centers, and powerful technologies in governments and society are rapidly proliferating. Technology winners and losers are emerging.How did we arrive at this global technology fight? How and where will it be waged? What can we do to prepare for the future? Tech Wars examines the conditions that have led us to this point and introduces new strategies, organizational changes, and resource allocations that will help the United States respond to the challenges on the horizon.

This evaluation of the Department of Immigration and Border Protection (DIBP) updates a previous analysis and informs the upcoming transition to an Australian Department of Home Affairs (HA). Interviews with senior leaders and documents dating to 2005 provide the foundation for the findings, which indicate that progress toward integration and reform continues, although unevenly, and provide insights for the future formation of the HA.

Selected for the 2019 Commandant’s Professional Reading List, Assignment: Pentagon takes the reader on an insider’s tour of the Pentagon, describing how the headquarters for the world’s largest multinational “corporation” functions. The reader gains insights into how this bureaucracy functions as well as the stresses and strains inherent to such a complex organization. Now in its fifth edition, Assignment: Pentagon remains the best practical guide for anyone who works for the Pentagon or any other large bureaucracy. Eminently readable, Assignment: Pentagon is the essential guide for the newly assigned military person, fresh civilian, or interested outsider to the Pentagon’s informal set of arrangements, networks, and functions that operate in the service and joint service world. With updated information about jobs and Pentagon vernacular, this fifth edition delivers a wealth of practical advice and helpful hints about surviving the challenges of working in “the Building.” If you’ve been assigned to the Pentagon or are starting work for any large company, you need to read Assignment: Pentagon.

A leading technology expert examines ways to manage the rapid proliferation of technology and come to grips with its pervasive influence. Technology--always a key driver of historical change--is transforming society as never before and at a far more rapid pace. This book takes the reader on a journey into what the author identifies as the central organizing construct for the future of civilization, the continued proliferation of technology. And he challenges us to consider how to think about technology to ensure that we humans, and not the products of our invention, remain in control of our destinies? In this informative and insightful examination, Dr. Daniel M. Gerstein--who brings vast operational, research, and academic experience to the subject--proposes a method for gaining a better understanding of how technology is likely to evolve in the future. He identifies the attributes that a future successful technology will seek to emulate and the pitfalls that a technology developer should try to avoid. The aim is to bring greater clarity to the impact of technology on individuals and society. In particular, he considers three technologies now converging that will shape the future: biotechnology, artificial intelligence, and the "internet of things." He asks: Will we continue to develop new technologies in these fields merely because basic research shows that we can, or should we first consider the likely effects of these technologies on the quality of life at the individual, societal, and global levels? Dr. Gerstein makes a compelling case that rational and informed evolution of our technological options is the best course for ensuring a brighter future.

To provide transparency into the decisionmaking process surrounding its planning processes, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) asked RAND to develop a risk assessment methodology that can be used to identify the greatest risks to homeland security and support prioritization of DHS mission elements. The methodology is presented in this report.

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) confronts a variety of organizational-level risks within its programs that could influence the success of its missions or programs. This report provides NASA s Office of Strategy and Plans with a risk assessment methodology that integrates risk factors tailored to NASA s management, operations, and acquisition structures, allowing decisionmakers to compare risks within a common framework."

This book accessibly and expertly details the history and implications of the BWC—the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention—a controversial arms control agreement drafted in the 1970’s meant to supplement the Geneva protocol for warfare from decades earlier. That treaty banned the use of biological weapons in modern warfare, but failed to ban their development, transport or trafficking, holes the BWC aimed to fill, but are still contested to this day. Daniel M. Gerstein, a Deputy Under Secretary in the Department of Homeland Security and Adjunct Professor at American University, traces the origins of the treaty and its many complications, past and present, while prescribing a way for the world’s leaders to move forward with regards to (what Gerstein sees will be and already is) “the most important arms control treaty of the 21st Century.” This will only become more pronounced as exponential advances in biotechnology continue to occur. The strength and enforcement of the treaty are at a crossroads, and it is important for both professionals and students of the political-military and international affairs to know exactly what a failure to honor, improve and uphold the BWC would mean for international security.

Daniel Gerstein draws on twenty-nine years of experience in the security and defence sectors to address the threat of bioterrorism in the twenty-first century. He warns that while the proliferation of knowledge and capabilities in the field of biotechnology offers ever-increasing opportunities for scientific breakthroughs, the potential for the misuse of that knowledge also increases. Gerstein takes a classic game theory approach in his analysis of the potential for a bioterror attack in the future. His examination provides an objective capability for assessing threats, understanding emerging trends and developing mitigation strategies. However, in the end the book is less about predicting future behaviour than about understanding the framework in which dangerous capabilities are allowed to proliferate. The study also makes a valuable contribution to the debate over perceived threats and vulnerabilities in this new global environment. About the Author Daniel M. Gerstein is a retired US Army colonel with a PhD in biodefense. He has served worldwide with organizations involved in homeland security, combat, peacekeeping, and humanitarian assistance operations.

Daniel Gerstein draws on twenty-nine years of experience in the security and defence sectors to address the threat of bioterrorism in the twenty-first century. He warns that while the proliferation of knowledge and capabilities in the field of biotechnology offers ever-increasing opportunities for scientific breakthroughs, the potential for the misuse of that knowledge also increases. Gerstein takes a classic game theory approach in his analysis of the potential for a bioterror attack in the future. His examination provides an objective capability for assessing threats, understanding emerging trends and developing mitigation strategies. However, in the end the book is less about predicting future behaviour than about understanding the framework in which dangerous capabilities are allowed to proliferate. The study also makes a valuable contribution to the debate over perceived threats and vulnerabilities in this new global environment. About the Author Daniel M. Gerstein is a retired US Army colonel with a PhD in biodefense. He has served worldwide with organizations involved in homeland security, combat, peacekeeping, and humanitarian assistance operations.

As the world moves further into the Information Age and the ensuing increased levels of globalization, the ability to harness all of the elements of national power in an integrated, coordinated, and synchronized manner will be even more critical for the United States to successfully defend itself. Gerstein argues that the United States as a nation is largely unprepared to reap the full benefits of the Information Age and unable to address an increasing threat level because its methods, procedures, and ways of thinking remain anchored to the Industrial Age that is rapidly being left behind. To understand and adapt to this emerging environment, the United States must re-examine the development and the implementation of national security strategy. Gerstein examines the history of U.S. national security strategy, and he analyzes the results and conclusions of several capstone documents, including the National Security Strategy of the United States (2002), the Homeland Security Strategy of the United States (2002), the Commission of National Security/21st Century, and the 9/11 Commission Report. After evaluating the execution of U.S. national security strategy, Gerstein maintains that U.S. efforts today are more heavily weighted to the use of hard power—political, military, and intelligence resources—for achieving strategic goals and objectives. A strategy that incorporates more fully the elements of national power, including soft power such as economic, social, cultural, and informational capabilities will better serve the interests of the nation. In addition, Gerstein proposes a new way of looking at strategy. Typically, strategy has been defined as the linking of ways and means to achieve ends while mitigating risk. In the future, we must factor environment into any discussion.