David P. Farrington

This is an open access title available under the terms of a CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 International licence. It is free to read at Oxford Scholarship Online and offered as a free PDF download from OUP and selected open access locations. Explaining Criminal Careers presents a simple but influential theory of crime, conviction and reconviction. The assumptions of the theory are derived directly from a detailed analysis of cohort samples extracted from the Home Office Offenders Index - a unique database which contains records of all criminal (standard list) convictions in England and Wales since 1963. In particular, the theory explains the well-known Age/Crime curve. Based on the idea that there are only three types of offenders, who commit crimes at either high or low (constant) rates and have either a high or low (constant) risk of reoffending, this simple theory makes exact quantitative predictions about criminal careers and age-crime curves. Purely from the birth-rate over the second part of the 20th century, the theory accurately predicts (to within 2%) the prison population contingent on a given sentencing policy. The theory also suggests that increasing the probability of conviction after each offence is the most effective way of reducing crime, although there is a role for treatment programmes for some offenders. The authors indicate that crime is influenced by the operation of the Criminal Justice System and that offenders do not 'grow out' of crime as commonly supposed; they are persuaded to stop or decide to stop after (repeated) convictions, with a certain fraction of offenders desisting after each conviction. Simply imprisoning offenders will not reduce crime either by individual deterrence or by incapacitation. With comprehensive explanations of the formulae used and complete mathematical appendices allowing for individual interpretations and further development of the theory, Explaining Criminal Careers represents an innovative and meticulous investigation into criminal activity and the influences behind it. With clear policy implications and a wealth of original and significant discussions, this book marks a ground-breaking chapter in the criminological debate surrounding criminal careers.

How can a society prevent-not deter, not punish-but prevent crime? Criminal justice prevention, commonly called crime control, aims to prevent crime after an initial offence has been commited through anything from an arrest to a death penalty sentence. These traditional means have been frequently examined and their efficacy just as frequently questioned. Promising new forms of crime prevention have emerged and expanded as important components of an overall strategy to reduce crime. Crime prevention today has developed along three lines: interventions to improve the life chances of children and prevent them from embarking on a life of crime; programs and policies designed to ameliorate the social conditions and institutions that influence offending; and the modification or manipulation of the physical environment, products, or systems to reduce everyday opportunities for crime. Each strategy aims at preventing crime or criminal offending in the first instance - before the act has been committed. Each, importantly, takes place outside of the formal criminal justice system, representing an alternative, perhaps even socially progressive way to reduce crime. The Oxford Handbook of Crime Prevention is a comprehensive, up-to-date, and authoritative review of research on crime prevention. Bringing together top scholars in criminology, public policy, psychology, and sociology, this Handbook includes critical reviews of the main theories that form the basis of crime prevention, evidence-based assessments of the effectiveness of the most important interventions, and cross-cutting essays that examine implementation, evaluation methodology, and public policy. Covering the three major crime prevention strategies active today-developmental, community, and situational-this definitive volume addresses seriously and critically the ways in which the United States and the Western world have attempted, and should continue to strive for the prevention of crime.

Human Development and Criminal Behavior proposes an exten- sive agenda for crime research. The book is part of a pio- neering effort to understand the causes of crime, particu- larly its developmental course. It defines and sets the con- ditions necessary to conduct an accelerated longitudinal study of individuals at risk to become engaged in criminal careers. This work offers a blueprint for research to eluci- date and possibly prevent crime in our society.

In 1982 the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation created a small committee-the Justice Program Study Group (whose membership is listed at the end ofthis preface)-and posed to it what can hardly be regarded as an easy ques­ tion: "What ideas, what concepts, what basic intellectual frameworks are lack­ ing" to understand and to more effectively deal with crime in our society? Those who are acquainted with the work of the members of the Study Group will appreciate how many divergent views were expressed-divergent to the degree that some of us came to the conclusion that we were not a Study Group at all but rather a group being studied, an odd collection of ancient experimental animals serving some dark purpose of the Foundation. Eventually, however, a surprisingly strong concurrence emerged. We found we were impressed by the extent to which in our discussions we placed heavy reliance on the products of two types of research: first, those few longitudinal studies related to juvenile delinquency and crime that had been pursued in this country and, second, a few experimental studies that had sought to measure the consequences of different official interventions in criminal careers. These two research strategies had taught us much about crime and its control. Other strategies-case studies, cross-sectional surveys, participant observations, and similar techniques-had indeed been productive, but it was the longitudinal and experimental designs that firmed up the knowledge that the others helped to discover.

The first decade of the new century proved to be a deadly one for many children and young people in the United States. Despite increased policing on the streets, higher rates of incarceration, harsher sentencing, stricter control of illegal drugs, and attempts to reduce access to firearms, FBI reports show that more than 7,300 young people between the ages of 15 and 29 were murdered in 2008 alone. It’s clear that traditional crime reduction strategies have not stemmed the rising tide of homicides perpetrated by and upon one of society’s most vulnerable populations. Innovative, practicable solutions are needed to staunch this lethal trend.Based on the findings of a unique longitudinal study, Young Homicide Offenders and Victims: Risk Factors, Prediction, and Prevention from Childhood now provides experts with unprecedented analysis of prospectively collected data on 1,517 boys and young men who grew up in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Following these males from childhood into early adulthood, examining their lives and the conditions under which they grew up in a representative mid-sized American city, the study forms the basis of this unique volume designed to stimulate debate on key questions of prevention and intervention as well as dispel popular myths about the childhood and adolescent features of homicide offenders and homicide victims. Key areas of coverage include:Early childhood risk factors of young homicide offenders and victims. Insights into homicide offenders’ lives as told in their own words.The effectiveness of screening for at-risk youth. Risk factor–based prevention and intervention strategies.The impact of interventions on homicide rates.Policy implications at the local, state, and national levels.Young Homicide Offenders and Victims: Risk Factors, Prediction, and Prevention from Childhood is essential reading for researchers,practitioners, and policy makers across the fields of juvenile justice and criminology, developmental psychology, sociology, psychiatry, public health, and policy making.-------“This book changes the game in violence research … The analysis is masterful, the prose is readable, and the achievement is nothing short of stunning.”Richard Rosenfeld, Ph.D. / Curators Professor of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Missouri-St. Louis“This book will stand the test of time as a landmark homicide study.”James C. Howell, Ph.D. / Senior Research Associate, National Gang Center“This is a fascinating, pioneering book … The authors’ sophisticated analyses demonstrate convincingly the considerable value of prospective longitudinal data for enhancing our understanding of the etiology and control of lethal violence.”Steven F. Messner, Ph.D. / Distinguished Teacher Professor, Department of Sociology, University at Albany, SUNY / President, American Society of Criminology

The United Kingdom has more than 4.2 million public closed-circuit television (CCTV) cameras--one for every fourteen citizens. Across the United States, hundreds of video surveillance systems are being installed in town centers, public transportation facilities, and schools at a cost exceeding $100 million annually. And now other Western countries have begun to experiment with CCTV to prevent crime in public places. In light of this expansion and the associated public expenditure, as well as pressing concerns about privacy rights, there is an acute need for an evidence-based approach to inform policy and practice. Drawing on the highest-quality research, criminologists Brandon C. Welsh and David P. Farrington assess the effectiveness and social costs of not only CCTV, but also of other important surveillance methods to prevent crime in public space, such as improved street lighting, security guards, place managers, and defensible space. Importantly, the book goes beyond the question of "Does it work?" and examines the specific conditions and contexts under which these surveillance methods may have an effect on crime as well as the mechanisms that bring about a reduction in crime. At a time when cities need cost-effective methods to fight crime and the public gradually awakens to the burdens of sacrificing their privacy and civil rights for security, Welsh and Farrington provide this timely and reliable guide to the most effective and non-invasive uses of surveillance to make public places safer from crime.

After decades of rigorous study in the United States and across the Western world, a great deal is known about the early risk factors for offending. High impulsiveness, low attainment, criminal parents, parental conflict, and growing up in a deprived, high-crime neighborhood are among the most important factors. There is also a growing body of high quality scientific evidence on the effectiveness of early prevention programs designed to prevent children from embarking on a life of crime. Drawing on the latest evidence, Saving Children from a Life of Crime is the first book to assess the early causes of offending and what works best to prevent it. Preschool intellectual enrichment, child skills training, parent management training, and home visiting programs are among the most effective early prevention programs. Criminologists David Farrington and Brandon Welsh also outline a policy strategy - early prevention - that uses this current research knowledge and brings into sharper focus what America's national crime fighting priority ought to be. At a time when unacceptable crime levels in America, rising criminal justice costs, and a punitive crime policy have spurred a growing interest in the early prevention of delinquency, Farrington and Welsh here lay the groundwork for change with a comprehensive national prevention strategy to save children from a life of crime.

This book examines several contentious and under-studied criminal career issues using one of the world's most important longitudinal studies, the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (CSDD), a longitudinal study of 411 South London boys followed in criminal records to age 40. The analysis reported in the book explores issues related to prevalence, offending frequency, specialization, onset sequences, co-offending, chronicity, career length, and trajectory estimation. The results of the study are considered in the context of developmental/life-course theories, and the authors outline an agenda for criminal career research generally, and within the context of the CSDD specifically.

This book examines several contentious and under-studied criminal career issues using one of the world's most important longitudinal studies, the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (CSDD), a longitudinal study of 411 South London boys followed in criminal records to age 40. The analysis reported in the book explores issues related to prevalence, offending frequency, specialization, onset sequences, co-offending, chronicity, career length, and trajectory estimation. The results of the study are considered in the context of developmental/life-course theories, and the authors outline an agenda for criminal career research generally, and within the context of the CSDD specifically.

After decades of rigorous study in the United States and across the Western world, a great deal is known about the early risk factors for offending. High impulsiveness, low attainment, criminal parents, parental conflict, and growing up in a deprived, high-crime neighborhood are among the most important factors. There is also a growing body of high quality scientific evidence on the effectiveness of early prevention programs designed to prevent children from embarking on a life of crime. Drawing on the latest evidence, Saving Children from a Life of Crime is the first book to assess the early causes of offending and what works best to prevent it. Preschool intellectual enrichment, child skills training, parent management training, and home visiting programs are among the most effective early prevention programs. Criminologists David Farrington and Brandon Welsh also outline a policy strategy--early prevention--that uses this current research knowledge and brings into sharper focus what America's national crime fighting priority ought to be. At a time when unacceptable crime levels in America, rising criminal justice costs, and a punitive crime policy have spurred a growing interest in the early prevention of delinquency, Farrington and Welsh here lay the groundwork for change with a comprehensive national prevention strategy to save children from a life of crime.

Biology and Crime profiles biological approaches to understanding why some people are criminals and others not. Written by internationally recognized behavioral geneticist David C. Rowe, the book offers instructors and students a brief, contemporary presentation of biological approaches to crime with a minimum of jargon. (A background in the biological sciences is not required.) Boxes highlight special topics and examples drawn from newspaper stories to spark student interest. Chapters cover: * Behavioral genetics* Evolutionary approaches to crime* Biological tests for criminal disposition* The human genome and crime* The environment and crime* Ethical and policy implications This book will enrich students' appreciation of the nexus of biology and crime--without negating non-biological theories of crime.

Between 1980 and 1996 the number of arrests has increased considerably for offenders ages 12 and under. This increase is a cost to society in two ways: the cost of the crime and the cost of multiple agencies involved with these children. Several questions have developed due to this increase: How does the juvenile justice system deal with child delinquents? Is child delinquency a predictor of serious, violent, and chronic offending? How early can we predict delinquency, and what are early warning signs? In an effort to develop answers for these questions and many more, editors Rolf Loeber and David Farrington organized a study group on Very Young offenders comprising 39 experts on juvenile delinquency and child problem behavior. Over a two-year period of intense and collaborative work these individuals have produced the book Child Delinquents: Development, Intervention, and Service Needs. Presenting empirically derived insights, Child Delinquents is the definitive statement to date on the working knowledge of prevalence, development, risk and protective factors, and optimal intervention with preteen offenders. This book is an excellent source for a broad audience of researchers, scholars, psychiatry, and practitioners at the administrative level.

Epidemiological surveys have provided key information about the prevalence and degree of seriousness at different ages of a wide array of problem behaviors such as delinquency, substance use, early sexual involvement, and mental health disorders. Knowledge of the extent of these problems and changes in their course over time is important. In its absence, interventions and health planning in general can be difficult. Understanding which risk and protective factors are relevant to which problem behaviors is also essential for the formulation of theories that constitute the basis of intervention. This book draws on the results of the major Pittsburgh Youth Study complemented by follow-up tracking of juvenile court records for more than six years, to address the following questions: *What is the prevalence and age of onset of delinquency, substance use, and early sexual behavior for three samples of boys age 8, 11, and 14? What are the average mental health problems for these ages? How strong are the relationships among these problem behaviors in each of the samples? *Which variables best explain individual differences among the boys in their manifestations of delinquency, substance use, early sexual behavior, and mental health problems? To what extent do explanatory factors vary with age? How accurately can boys with different outcomes be identified by risk scores based on hierarchical multiple regressions? *To what extent are explanatory factors associated with one outcome that are also associated with other outcomes? Are explanatory factors that are especially characteristic of a multiproblem group of boys--who display many different problem behaviors--different from explanatory factors associated with boys with few problems? *Do the results fit a general theory of juvenile problem behaviors, or is a differentiated theory more applicable?

Using citation analysis, this study examines the influence and prestige of scholars, journals, and university departments in the fields of criminology and criminal justice. In the tradition of Marvin E. Wolfgang's Evaluating Criminology, the authors apply this quantitative method to evaluate the impact of individuals and their research efforts on two fields and to identify interconnections among scholars and their publications. This examination of the most-cited scholars, works, and topics in major American and international journals from 1986 to 1990 and from 1991 to 1995 provides valuable and unbiased feedback for researchers and practitioners.The nine chapters of this book detail a wide range of findings in both criminology and criminal justice. After an introduction to the methodology, chapters two, three, and four divide recent scholarship into two periods, 1986 to 1990 and 1991 to 1995, in order to consider the most-cited scholars, works, and topics. Chapter five provides a longitudinal analysis of scholars in the discipline since 1945. Chapters six and seven provide a system of prestige-ratings for relevant journals as well as page coverage analysis of the most influential scholars. The continuing controversy over whether the two fields are converging or diverging is the subject of chapter eight, and the work concludes with a prescription for further research.