Derek Grossman

The 2022 National Defense Strategy calls for "integrated deterrence" in how the U.S. military uses its cyberspace forces to address the strategic challenges posed by revisionist powers, such as China. The authors apply the concept of selective overmatch to reevaluate current U.S. cyber operations in light of competition and possible conflict with China and show how this framework can provide a roadmap for U.S. Cyber Command's future operations.

This report seeks to address how the U.S. Army can most effectively project and employ land power in the Indo-Pacific, during competition and conflict, with a focus on scenarios involving China. The authors developed three concepts to guide the Army's ground force role in the theater, offering the essential architecture of basing, information, relationships, and flexible combat power needed to make the joint force effective.

The People's Republic of China's (PRC's) and the People's Liberation Army's (PLA's) understanding of the military balance is fundamentally based on systems warfare concepts. The authors provide a detailed analysis of the factors and components associated with PRC leaders' assessments of the Chinese PLA's strength and the implications for the U.S.-China military balance.

The authors develop a framework of 17 indicators to assess valuable attributes of potential host nations from Beijing's perspective, focusing not only on the utility of host nations (desirability) but also on China's ability to secure access (feasibility). They recommend strategies for the U.S. government, the U.S. Department of Defense, and the U.S. Army to better understand China's overseas plans and to prioritize risks to U.S. forces.

In this study, RAND researchers examined the current role of security cooperation efforts as a tool in the emerging strategic competition among the United States, Russia, and China. In particular, they sought to identify how, where, and to what degree the three major competitors?plus Australia, Japan, India, and several countries in Europe?are using security cooperation.

The authors examine (1) the experiences of North Korea and three similar authoritarian regimes-China, Vietnam, and Cuba-to forecast why and how North Korea might adopt a new economic model; (2) what might happen if conventional deterrence fails on the Korean Peninsula; and (3) what might lead North Korea to use nuclear weapons.

Expanding on prior research, the authors identify the tasks that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) would likely be assigned by Chinese leaders to achieve strategic goals both in peacetime competition with the United States and in a hypothetical low-intensity conflict. They then analyze potential vulnerabilities in the PLA's execution of those tasks and how the United States could leverage those vulnerabilities to disrupt China's strategic goals.

This report develops a new concept for strategic disruption by special operations forces, exploring how disruptive campaigns can frustrate an adversary's preferred strategy and enable friendly gains across multiple instruments of national power. This research articulates a clear framework for special operations campaigning short of war, particularly when potentially escalatory conventional options are ill-suited or infeasible.

As the United States has become increasingly reliant on space-based capabilities, protecting them has become vital to national security, especially in the face of China's ambitions for superiority in space. Considering the application of classical deterrence theory to the space domain, the authors show how and why China's own objectives should be considered in building a tailored deterrence strategy for China in space.

China has been wielding increased influence and soft power in both the Freely Associated States of the Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and Palau, as well as the broader region of Oceania. The authors of this report examine the implications of these activities for the United States, particularly in terms of its defense and foreign policy interests.

This country-level report in a series explores Vietnam's perspective on rising U.S.-China competition. The report evaluates how Vietnam is responding to U.S. and Chinese influence in diplomatic and political, economic, and security and military domains, especially as U.S.-China competition grows across the Indo-Pacific and globally. The report also addresses the prospects of enhancing U.S.-Vietnam relations to counter rising Chinese coercion.

Chinese primary-source materials indicate that China is aggressively working toward becoming a global leader in big data analytics as part of its plan to achieve great power status. The authors of this report assessed a variety of primary sources, including specific ministry-level plans and guidance, and pinpointed how Beijing is using big data analytics to survey its domestic population and enhance its military capabilities.

This report examines the key drivers behind China's strategic bomber flights throughout the Asia-Pacific region. It provides a review of all known flights, assesses Chinese official statements, and unofficial expert commentary on flights while leveraging many sources to better understand and gauge regional reactions. The report recommends specific responses for consideration by the U.S. Air Force, U.S. policymakers, and allies and partners.