Elina Treyger

To what extent can the United States still cooperate with China and Russia in certain areas even in this era of strategic competition? On which issues? What are the obstacles, the potential benefits, and the risks associated with great power cooperation? This report, the first of a four-part series, presents the overarching findings of a study that explored these questions.

The international system appears headed for a renewed era of intense competition among major powers. The authors sought to identify the factors that keep such rivalries stable and those that lead to conflictual outcomes. Leveraging theory and historical case studies, the authors created a framework for assessing the stability of a strategic rivalry, then applied it to the current U.S.-Russia and U.S.-China competitions.

How are state adversaries using disinformation on social media to advance their interests? What does the joint force?and the U.S. Air Force in particular?need to be prepared to do in response? Disinformation campaigns on social media pose a nuanced threat to the United States, but the response remains ad hoc and uncoordinated. This series overview presents recommendations to better prepare for this new age of information warfare.

The authors examine Russia's use of racially or ethnically motivated violent extremism (REMVE) narratives in the context of its war against Ukraine from 2022 to early 2024 by analyzing content on social media platforms X and Telegram.

This report-part of a four-volume series-explores where and how the United States, China, and Russia are competing for influence in Africa; what kinds of interests they have in the continent; where and why competition might turn into conflict; what form that conflict might take; and the implications for the United States, particularly the Department of the Air Force.

This report-part of a four-volume series-explores where and how the United States, China, and Russia are competing for influence in Latin America; what kinds of interests they have in the continent; where and why competition might turn into conflict; what form that conflict might take; and the implications for the United States, particularly the Department of the Air Force.

This report-part of a four-volume series-explores where and how the United States, China, and Russia are competing for influence in the Middle East; what kinds of interests they have in the region; where and why competition might turn into conflict; what form that conflict might take; and the implications for the United States, particularly the Department of the Air Force.

This report explores where and how the United States, China, and Russia may be competing for influence in secondary theaters (Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America); where and why competition might turn into conflict; what form that conflict might take; and what implications the findings have for the U.S. government at large, the joint force, and the Department of the Air Force.

This report, part of a four-part series, describes the potential for U.S. cooperation with China or Russia in Europe and the Middle East on seven issues: broader Euro-Atlantic security, Baltic security, Balkan security and strategic orientation, Turkey's regional role and strategic orientation, the future of Ukraine, Middle East stability and peace processes, and countering Iran and its proxies.

Russia is conducting wide-reaching information warfare with the West. This report describes Russia's information warfare waged via social media and provides recommendations to better counter this threat. Although popular portrayals of the Russian disinformation machine imply an organized and well-resourced operation, evidence suggests that it is neither. Nonetheless, Russian activity can be harmful to U.S. interests and is likely to evolve.

Since 2014, China and Russia have strengthened their relationship, increasing political, military, and economic cooperation. In this report, the authors seek to understand the history of cooperation between Beijing and Moscow, the drivers of and constraints on the relationship, the potential future of cooperation between China and Russia, the impact of the Chinese-Russian relationship on the United States, and implications for future U.S. policy.

As targets of information aggression, the United States and its European allies must protect themselves against the effects of psychological manipulation and influence. The authors describe apparent efforts by Russia and its agents to use information to shape Russia's operating environment, and they identify possible defensive approaches for United States European Command and its partners.

Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center researchers sought to establish a causal connection between surveillance technology and outcomes relevant to border security. The study demonstrated the promises and limitations of quasi-experimental statistical methods for evaluating the effects or effectiveness of different border-enforcement measures.

The challenge of deterring territorial aggression is taking on renewed importance, yet discussion of it has lagged in U.S. military and strategy circles. The authors aim to provide a fresh look, with two primary purposes: to review established concepts about deterrence, and to provide a framework for evaluating the strength of deterrent relationships. They focus on a specific type of deterrence: extended deterrence of interstate aggression.

With the rise of social media, it has become clear that the Russian government and its proxies have found new and useful outlets in which to sow disinformation and confusion among various populations, including within the United States. This report draws on expert recommendations from academia, think tanks, and the private sector to formulate specific and actionable approaches for countering Russian social media influence.