Emily Ellinger

Ensuring military access to the territory of allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific in the event of a future conflict with China is a critical concern for U.S. policymakers. By looking at five specific allies and partners, the authors explore how states are likely to approach access requests, what factors influence such decisions, and what peacetime policy levers the United States might have to increase the likelihood of access in conflict.

This report describes the 2021 U.S. Air Force-sponsored Plan Blue game, which examined competition against Russia in the Arctic with a focus on the role of sensing in competition and featured robust participation from regional partners and allies. The purpose of the game was to increase understanding of the capabilities, postures, and alliance command, control, and communication relationships that may be called for in future Arctic operations.

This report assesses how China may react to expanded or varied U.S. military activities in the Indo-Pacific. It provides a framework of key factors likely to determine Chinese responses and identifies the characteristics of U.S. military activities that may either enhance deterrence of Chinese aggression or increase the risks of an escalatory Chinese reaction.

The return of great-power competition has highlighted the risks of conflict with nuclear-armed great powers. Such a conflict would entail escalation risks that the United States has not seriously considered since the Cold War. Using three historical case studies, the authors examine decisionmakers' ability to identify adversary thresholds and to apply this information to control escalation during militarized crises between nuclear-armed states.