Eugeniu Han

In this report, the authors develop a framework for assessing a country's capacity to resist a large-scale attack. The authors then use that framework to assess Taiwan's capacity to withstand such an attack by China for at least 90 days. An accurate assessment of Taiwan's ability to sustain a defense could help U.S. decisionmakers and planners better anticipate and respond in such a situation.

The authors explore Russian views on the military applications of robotics and artificial intelligence and the motivations for the development of those capabilities. They investigate the degree of autonomy that Russians might be willing to delegate to machines and to what extent Moscow plans to replace (versus augment) human soldiers with robots. They also assess whether Moscow has delivered--or can deliver--its robotization vision.

Military forecasting informs long-term military planning of the Russian Ministry of Defense. In this report, the authors draw on a framework developed by the Russian military science community to examine several key indicators related to military forecasting to gain insight into the likelihood and character of future war and the correlation of military potential between Russia and potential adversaries.

The Trump administration pursued policies to confront China over its transgressive and anticompetitive economic behaviors, such as theft of technology and intellectual property and limitations on market access. In this report, the authors assess how the U.S. manufacturing, technology, and financial sectors viewed these policies and examine how to improve U.S. government interactions with the business community to support competition with China.

This volume of the Future of Warfare series explains six geopolitical trends--U.S. polarization and retrenchment, China's rise, Asia's realignment, emergence of a revanchist Russia, upheaval in Europe, and turmoil in the Islamic world--that will drive conflict between now and 2030. These trends will shift U.S. alliances; pull limited resources in different directions; and, ultimately, create a deepening strategic dilemma for U.S. defense strategy.

Why do some Asian states consolidate democratic gains while others slide toward authoritarianism? In this report, RAND researchers use a literature review, statistical analysis, and case studies of Taiwan, Thailand, Sri Lanka, and Malaysia to study democratization and the factors that influence it among small Asian states, identify policies that can support democratization, and examine how external actors can help countries democratize.