Fang Cai

The tremendous success of China's economic reform, in contrast with the vast difficulties encountered by the former Soviet Union and Eastern European countries in their transition, has attracted worldwide attention. Using a historical, comparative and analytic approach grounded in mainstream economics, the authors develop a consistent and rational framework of state-owned enterprises and individual agents to analyze the internal logic of the traditional Chinese planning system. They also explain why the Chinese economy grew slowly before the market-oriented reform in 1979 but became one of the fastest growing economies afterwards, and why the vigor/chaos cycle became part of China's reform process. The book also addresses the questions: Can China continue its trend of reform and development and become the largest economy in the world in the early twenty-first century? What are the general implications of China's experience of development and reform for other developing and transition economies? In this revised edition, the authors update the data and information in the book and include a new chapter on the impact of China's WTO accession on its reform.

One of the important ingredients of Deng Xiaoping's reform programme of the late 1970s was the establishment of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to manage economic institutions hitherto directly administered by government bureaucrats in a centrally planned economy. Although this reform measure did enhance the management autonomy and incentives, these SOEs still carry the government's economic policy goals, which inhibit the economic performance of the enterprises. The current wisdom is to grant legal status to these enterprises via total privatisation. Indeed, the question arises as to what extent can such a corporate structure exist as a mainstay of the economy while China still claims to be a socialist economy? This book is a continuation of the authors' earlier publication, The China Miracle: Development Strategy and Economic Reform (1996). In this volume, the authors review the historical evolution of the SOEs, analyse the current problems, and suggest the direction for future reforms. They argue that further reforms can be achieved by eliminating the "unfair competition conditions" confronting the SOEs rather than by realigning the corporate ownership rights as so often suggested.

Focusing on these developing problems and growing troubles, this book mainly discusses economic growth issues related to demographic transition, as well as livelihood issues derived from them and closely related to policy logic. It aims to make theoretical analysis and provide necessary international experience and lessons and put forward targeted policy advice. This book proposes a three-pronged pattern of competition policy, industrial policy, and social policy to achieve productivity improvement and innovation momentum; gives full play to China's super-large market advantages, attractiveness and negotiating position; and promotes each other through domestic and international dual cycles to achieve a higher level of development.

Focusing on these developing problems and growing troubles, this book mainly discusses economic growth issues related to demographic transition, as well as livelihood issues derived from them and closely related to policy logic. It aims to make theoretical analysis and provide necessary international experience and lessons and put forward targeted policy advice. This book proposes a three-pronged pattern of competition policy, industrial policy, and social policy to achieve productivity improvement and innovation momentum; gives full play to China's super-large market advantages, attractiveness and negotiating position; and promotes each other through domestic and international dual cycles to achieve a higher level of development.

This book analyzes the characteristics of China's economic operation in the new era and explores Xi's thought on China's development. The book consists of six parts. The first part puts forward the guiding principles and main contents of political economy of socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era; the second part conducts the epistemology and methodology; the third part reveals the big logic of the new normal of economic development from the time and space dimension; and the fourth part examines the purpose, motivation, necessary conditions and measurement scale of development according to the new development concept; the fifth part discusses the path of building a modern economic system; the sixth part focuses on what China Wisdom and China solution could contribute to the global governance and promoting global development.

This book analyzes the characteristics of China's economic operation in the new era and explores Xi's thought on China's development. The book consists of six parts. The first part puts forward the guiding principles and main contents of political economy of socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era; the second part conducts the epistemology and methodology; the third part reveals the big logic of the new normal of economic development from the time and space dimension; and the fourth part examines the purpose, motivation, necessary conditions and measurement scale of development according to the new development concept; the fifth part discusses the path of building a modern economic system; the sixth part focuses on what China Wisdom and China solution could contribute to the global governance and promoting global development.

Dieses Buch erl utert, warum Chinas Reform- und ffnungspolitik erfolgreich das schnelle Wirtschaftswachstum f rdern konnte. Anhand einer sachlichen Darstellung sowie der analytischen wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Logik wird die erfolgreiche Entwicklung Chinas in den vergangenen vierzig Jahren zusammengefasst, die in dessen Geschichte zu beispiellosen Verbesserungen hinsichtlich des Lebens der Bev lkerung und der grundlegenden ffentlichen Dienstleistungen gef hrt hat. Die wirtschaftlichen Entwicklungsstadien Chinas werden bewertet und neue Herausforderungen sowie Aufgaben aufgezeigt. Zudem werden Gedanken hervorgebracht, wie eine Abwendung von der Abh ngigkeit bez glich der demografischen Dividende und gleichzeitige Hinwendung der Reformdividende erzielt werden kann. Es wird nach Wegen gesucht, ein nachhaltiges Wirtschaftswachstum aufrechtzuerhalten, die mittlere Einkommensphase zu berwinden und den bergang zur hohen Einkommensphase zu erreichen. Dieses Buch bedient sich der normativen Analysemethoden der Wirtschaftswissenschaften, um anhand der Logik der Reform- und ffnungspolitik und mithilfe von einem einfachen Sprachstil ber das chinesische Wirtschaftswunder zu erz hlen. Unter der Hinzunahme von Chinas Erfahrungen, der chinesischen Weisheit sowie dem chinesischen Konzept wird bestrebt die Wirtschaftsentwicklungstheorie zu bereichern.

This book reviews and examines the reform and opening up in China from 1978 to 2011. It analyzes how China avoided to fall into the middle-income trap over those 33 years. The book makes a deep analysis of understanding how Chinese economy became a miracle in the world economic history and its development stages, as well as the overseas erroneous understanding of the existence of Chinese economy. The author analyzes from three aspects: how to break the “impossible triangle”, how to achieve middle-to-high speed growth in L model, and how to release a new dividend of urbanization. After Chinese economy entered the Lewis turning point, China faced the dilemma of labor transformation and the disappearance of demographic dividend, the demographic dividend turned to the reform dividend. The author points out and suggests that a new round of growth should be achieved by improving the total factor productivity in order to find a new way for the Chinese economy. This book plays an important role of comprehending Chinese economy under current complex economic situation.This book helps readers to understand Chinese economy from many aspects: impossible triangle, L model growth, Malthus trap, dual economy, aging problem, demographic dividend, reform dividend, trap of middle income, globalization, etc. The author as an economist aims for the public explaining the professional knowledge in a concise and easy way. This book delivers the information of discerning and understanding the economic trend, and predicting the future.

China is historically famous for its high demographic dividend and its huge working population, and this has driven tremendous economic growth over the past few decades. However, that population has begun to shrink and the Lewis turning point whereby surplus rural population has been absorbed into manufacturing is also approaching, leading to great change in the Chinese labor market. Will this negatively affect China’s economic growth? Can the "Middle-Income Trap" be avoided? What reforms should be made on the labor supply side? This book tackles these key questions.This book is a collection of 14 papers presenting the author’s observations, analysis, and opinions of China’s long-term economic development from the demographic perspective, while analysing real economic problems from the past and including policy recommendations. It provides a critical reference for scholars and students interested in Chinese economic development and demographic perspectives on economic development.

This book reviews and examines the reform and opening up in China from 1978 to 2011. It analyzes how China avoided to fall into the middle-income trap over those 33 years. The book makes a deep analysis of understanding how Chinese economy became a miracle in the world economic history and its development stages, as well as the overseas erroneous understanding of the existence of Chinese economy. The author analyzes from three aspects: how to break the “impossible triangle”, how to achieve middle-to-high speed growth in L model, and how to release a new dividend of urbanization. After Chinese economy entered the Lewis turning point, China faced the dilemma of labor transformation and the disappearance of demographic dividend, the demographic dividend turned to the reform dividend. The author points out and suggests that a new round of growth should be achieved by improving the total factor productivity in order to find a new way for the Chinese economy. This book plays an important role of comprehending Chinese economy under current complex economic situation.This book helps readers to understand Chinese economy from many aspects: impossible triangle, L model growth, Malthus trap, dual economy, aging problem, demographic dividend, reform dividend, trap of middle income, globalization, etc. The author as an economist aims for the public explaining the professional knowledge in a concise and easy way. This book delivers the information of discerning and understanding the economic trend, and predicting the future.

China is historically famous for its high demographic dividend and its huge working population, and this has driven tremendous economic growth over the past few decades. However, that population has begun to shrink and the Lewis turning point whereby surplus rural population has been absorbed into manufacturing is also approaching, leading to great change in the Chinese labor market. Will this negatively affect China’s economic growth? Can the "Middle-Income Trap" be avoided? What reforms should be made on the labor supply side? This book tackles these key questions.This book is a collection of 14 papers presenting the author’s observations, analysis, and opinions of China’s long-term economic development from the demographic perspective, while analysing real economic problems from the past and including policy recommendations. It provides a critical reference for scholars and students interested in Chinese economic development and demographic perspectives on economic development.

This book explains why China’s opening-up policy can boost the rapid growth of its economy. Based on concrete facts and economic logic, it offers a brief introduction to the history of China’s successful development, which has unprecedentedly helped improve people’s lives and community welfare over the past 30 years. In light of the newly emerging problems, the author assesses the different stages of China’s economic development and new challenges, illustrating how the country’s sustainable growth could be achieved through further reforms so as to complete the transition from a middle-income to high-income country. He moves on to discuss the lessons learned from China’s experiences and summarizes their significance for other developing countries, while also clarifying popular misconceptions such as the “China Menace” and “Theory of China’s Collapse.” Taking the logic of economic development as a basis and employing economic norm analysis methods, the book describes China’s economic miracle in plain but vivid language and attempts to enrich the economic development theory through China’s experience.

This book explains why China’s opening-up policy can boost the rapid growth of its economy. Based on concrete facts and economic logic, it offers a brief introduction to the history of China’s successful development, which has unprecedentedly helped improve people’s lives and community welfare over the past 30 years. In light of the newly emerging problems, the author assesses the different stages of China’s economic development and new challenges, illustrating how the country’s sustainable growth could be achieved through further reforms so as to complete the transition from a middle-income to high-income country. He moves on to discuss the lessons learned from China’s experiences and summarizes their significance for other developing countries, while also clarifying popular misconceptions such as the “China Menace” and “Theory of China’s Collapse.” Taking the logic of economic development as a basis and employing economic norm analysis methods, the book describes China’s economic miracle in plain but vivid language and attempts to enrich the economic development theory through China’s experience.

This book presents empirical observations and theoretical thinking of the fundamental changes in the Chinese economy. It starts with a warning of the arrival of the Lewis Turning Point, which is empirically proven by disappearance of surplus labor force and a rapid increase in wages of unskilled workers. It further reveals that China's rapid population-aging trend is diminishing the demographic dividend that has kept China's economic growth rate high. Subsequently, it touches upon employment challenges that arise after reaching the Lewis Turning Point, further propelling urbanization, a balanced regional development, and so on. Finally, it introduces middle-income trap which is one of the biggest challenges China is facing, followed by recommendation of policies for the Chinese government to tackle the challenges ahead.This book should be of great interest to graduates, undergraduates, researchers and specialists who follow closely the economic development and demographic transition of China, the world's most populous country.

This volume first examines projected demographic changes that will affect the economic well-being of China's rural elderly over the next twenty years, taking into account both China's sharp demographic transition and the continued migration of young adults into cities. The projected old age dependency ratio of 34 percent in China's rural areas by 2030 suggests that support of the elderly is likely to be an increasing burden on China's families over the next twenty years.The book next documents the sources of financial support, poverty incidence and vulnerability of the rural elderly since the early 1990s. China's rural elderly have been consistently poorer and more vulnerable to poverty than both working age households and the urban elderly. In contrast to the urban elderly who frequently have pension support, the rural elderly typically rely either on their own labor income or financial support from adult children. A substantial share of China’s rural elderly continue to work well beyond the age 70, but labor as a primary source of support falls sharply during their 60s. Additional evidence suggests that the rural elderly work well beyond 60 out of necessity and only stop working when physically incapacitated. While average transfers from adult children to elderly parents are sufficient to keep them out of poverty, adult migrant children with uncertain income create the risk that transfers will not be sufficient to keep some rural elderly out of poverty.The final sections of the book review experiences with rural pensions during the 1990s and 2000s and draws out the lessons which have informed the design of a new national rural pension scheme. Among the many issues discussed, the report highlights the importance of providing incentives for participation in the pension scheme and important issues related to the portability of pensions for a mobile population.