Fynnwin Prager

This study develops a methodology for rapidly obtaining approximate estimates of the economic consequences from numerous natural, man-made and technological threats. This software tool is intended for use by various decision makers and analysts to obtain estimates rapidly. It is programmed in Excel and Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) to facilitate its use. This tool is called E-CAT (Economic Consequence Analysis Tool) and accounts for the cumulative direct and indirect impacts (including resilience and behavioral factors that significantly affect base estimates) on the U.S. economy. E-CAT is intended to be a major step toward advancing the current state of economic consequence analysis (ECA) and also contributing to and developing interest in further research into complex but rapid turnaround approaches.The essence of the methodology involves running numerous simulations in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for each threat, yielding synthetic data for the estimation of a single regression equation based on the identification of key explanatory variables (threat characteristics and background conditions). This transforms the results of a complex model, which is beyond the reach of most users, into a "reduced form" model that is readily comprehensible. Functionality has been built into E-CAT so that its users can switch various consequence categories on and off in order to create customized profiles of economic consequences of numerous risk events. E-CAT incorporates uncertainty on both the input and output side in the course of the analysis.

This study develops a methodology for rapidly obtaining approximate estimates of the economic consequences from numerous natural, man-made and technological threats. This software tool is intended for use by various decision makers and analysts to obtain estimates rapidly. It is programmed in Excel and Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) to facilitate its use. This tool is called E-CAT (Economic Consequence Analysis Tool) and accounts for the cumulative direct and indirect impacts (including resilience and behavioral factors that significantly affect base estimates) on the U.S. economy. E-CAT is intended to be a major step toward advancing the current state of economic consequence analysis (ECA) and also contributing to and developing interest in further research into complex but rapid turnaround approaches.The essence of the methodology involves running numerous simulations in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for each threat, yielding synthetic data for the estimation of a single regression equation based on the identification of key explanatory variables (threat characteristics and background conditions). This transforms the results of a complex model, which is beyond the reach of most users, into a "reduced form" model that is readily comprehensible. Functionality has been built into E-CAT so that its users can switch various consequence categories on and off in order to create customized profiles of economic consequences of numerous risk events. E-CAT incorporates uncertainty on both the input and output side in the course of the analysis.

A comprehensive investigation of modern terrorism and the global terrorist environment. The book uses a multidisciplinary approach and discusses an array of global case studies from the ideology of ISIS, to the Orlando Mass Shooting, and State-Sponsored Terrorism in Iran and Pakistan, to provide readers with an in-depth account of international terrorist violence, from its emergence through to events taking place today. Key topics examined in the book include: The Causes of Terrorism Terrorist Violence and the Role of the Media Cyberterrorism Gender-Selective Terrorism The Lone Wolf Theory The Future of Terrorism The book is supported by online resources for students and lecturers, including: PowerPoint slides for each chapter, a sample syllabus, a list of films and documentaries related to key concepts in the book, and access to free SAGE journal articles. Suitable reading for students studying Terrorism, International Terrorism, and Counter-terrorism.

A comprehensive investigation of modern terrorism and the global terrorist environment. The book uses a multidisciplinary approach and discusses an array of global case studies from the ideology of ISIS, to the Orlando Mass Shooting, and State-Sponsored Terrorism in Iran and Pakistan, to provide readers with an in-depth account of international terrorist violence, from its emergence through to events taking place today. Key topics examined in the book include: The Causes of Terrorism Terrorist Violence and the Role of the Media Cyberterrorism Gender-Selective Terrorism The Lone Wolf Theory The Future of Terrorism The book is supported by online resources for students and lecturers, including: PowerPoint slides for each chapter, a sample syllabus, a list of films and documentaries related to key concepts in the book, and access to free SAGE journal articles. Suitable reading for students studying Terrorism, International Terrorism, and Counter-terrorism.