Grant Johnson

The authors sought to identify possible Russian flashpoints in Europe that could entangle the United States. Using quantitative and qualitative methods to analyze historical data on Russian disputes and conflicts, they identified the key drivers of such flashpoints. They derive planning implications for the United States and the U.S. Army in particular. This research was completed prior to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The purpose of this report is to assist Department of Defense decisionmakers called upon to respond to adverse economic shocks by identifying opportunities for improving analysis of shocks and their effects on U.S. defense postures. The authors examined historical and hypothetical instances in which shocks threatened or would threaten defense postures to identify the types of questions that an analytic capability might be able to answer.

The authors evaluate the potential economic benefits of U.S. alliances and a forward military presence, a topic debated by scholars of grand strategy. A new statistical model provides evidence that U.S. alliances increase bilateral trade in manufactured goods, which has a modest but positive effect on overall U.S. economic welfare. Decisions about U.S. military engagement should be based on a range of factors including such economic benefits.

The U.S. Air Force (USAF) today stands at a crossroads over its launch acquisition strategy. In this report, authors analyze the heavy lift launch market to help the USAF gain clearer insight into the number of U.S. launch service providers that the global heavy lift launch market can support and the impact of near-term decisions on the USAF's ability to (1) meet NSS launch demand using U.S. providers and (2) sustain two or more U.S. providers.