Hans-Werner Sinn

Target balances are the largest single item in some of the balance sheets of the Eurosystem’s national central banks (NCBs), and yet very little is known about them by the general public and even by economists. This book shows that Target balances measure overdraft credits between the NCBs that resemble ordinary fiscal credit and which have grown disproportionately, exceeding one billion euros. There is, however, no parliamentary legitimation for the Target balances. The book sheds light on the economic significance of the balances, questions their limitlessness, and addresses controversial views that have been expressed regarding them. It uses the Target statistics to analyze the course of the euro crisis and the ECB’s policy reactions from the time of the Lehman bankruptcy up to the outbreak of the Corona crisis. It analyses the credit risks involved for the Eurosystem and concludes with a reform proposal. This book will be of interest to non-specialist economists and policy makers.

This book offers a critical assessment of the history of the euro, its crisis, and the rescue measures taken by the European Central Bank and the community of states. The euro induced huge capital flows from the northern to the southern countries of the Eurozone that triggered an inflationary credit bubble in the latter, deprived them of their competitiveness, and made them vulnerable to the financial crisis that spilled over from the US in 2007 and 2008. As private capital shied away from the southern countries, the ECB helped out by providing credit from the local money-printing presses. The ECB became heavily exposed to investment risks in the process, and subsequently had to be bailed out by intergovernmental rescue operations that provided replacement credit for the ECB credit, which itself had replaced the dwindling private credit. The interventions stretched the legal structures stipulated by the Maastricht Treaty which, in the absence of a European federal state, had granted the ECB a very limited mandate. These interventions created a path dependency that effectively made parliaments vicarious agents of the ECB's Governing Council. This book describes what the author considers to be a dangerous political process that undermines both the market economy and democracy, without solving southern Europe's competitiveness problem. It argues that the Eurozone has to rethink its rules of conduct by limiting the role of the ECB, exiting the regime of soft budget constraints and writing off public and bank debt to help the crisis countries breathe again. At the same time, the Eurosystem should become more flexible by offering its members the option of exiting and re-entering the euro - something between the dollar and the Bretton Woods system - until it eventually turns into a federation with a strong political power centre and a uniform currency like the dollar.

Top economists provide a concise and accessible evaluation of major developments in trade and trade policy. Economic Policy has arned a reputation around the world as the one publication that always identifies current and emerging policy topics early Papers are specially commissioned from first-class economists and experts in the policy field The editors are all based at top European economic institutions and each paper is discussed by a panel of distinguished economists This unique approach guarantees incisive debate and alternative interpretations of the evidence

Top economists provide a concise and accessible evaluation of major developments in trade and trade policy. Economic Policy has arned a reputation around the world as the one publication that always identifies current and emerging policy topics early Papers are specially commissioned from first-class economists and experts in the policy field The editors are all based at top European economic institutions and each paper is discussed by a panel of distinguished economists This unique approach guarantees incisive debate and alternative interpretations of the evidence

Top economists provide a concise and accessible evaluation of major developments in trade and trade policy. Economic Policy has arned a reputation around the world as the one publication that always identifies current and emerging policy topics early Papers are specially commissioned from first-class economists and experts in the policy field The editors are all based at top European economic institutions and each paper is discussed by a panel of distinguished economists This unique approach guarantees incisive debate and alternative interpretations of the evidence

Top economists provide a concise and accessible evaluation of major developments in trade and trade policy. Economic Policy has arned a reputation around the world as the one publication that always identifies current and emerging policy topics early Papers are specially commissioned from first-class economists and experts in the policy field The editors are all based at top European economic institutions and each paper is discussed by a panel of distinguished economists This unique approach guarantees incisive debate and alternative interpretations of the evidence

This book offers a critical assessment of the history of the euro, its crisis, and the rescue measures taken by the European Central Bank and the community of states. The euro induced huge capital flows from the northern to the southern countries of the Eurozone that triggered an inflationary credit bubble in the latter, deprived them of their competitiveness, and made them vulnerable to the financial crisis that spilled over from the US in 2007 and 2008. As private capital shied away from the southern countries, the ECB helped out by providing credit from the local money-printing presses. The ECB became heavily exposed to investment risks in the process, and subsequently had to be bailed out by intergovernmental rescue operations that provided replacement credit for the ECB credit, which itself had replaced the dwindling private credit. The interventions stretched the legal strictures stipulated by the Maastricht Treaty which, in the absence of a European federal state, had granted the ECB a very limited mandate. These interventions created a path dependency that effectively made parliaments vicarious agents of the ECB's Governing Council. This book describes what the author considers to be a dangerous political process that undermines both the market economy and democracy, without solving southern Europe's competitiveness problem. It argues that the Eurozone has to rethink its rules of conduct by limiting the role of the ECB, exiting the regime of soft budget constraints and writing off public and bank debt to help the crisis countries breathe again. At the same time, the Eurosystem should become more flexible by offering its members the option of exiting and re-entering the euro - something between the dollar and the Bretton Woods system - until it eventually turns into a federation with a strong political power centre and a uniform currency like the dollar.

In Casino Capitalism Hans-Werner Sinn examines the causes of the banking crisis, points out the flaws in the economic rescue packages, and presents a master plan for the reform of financial markets. Sinn argues that the crisis came about because limited liability induced both Wall Street and Main Street to gamble with real estate properties. He meticulously describes the process of lending to American homeowners and criticizes both the process of securitizing and selling mortgage claims to the world, as well as the poor job rating agencies did in providing transparency. He argues that the American Dream has ended because the world now realizes that this dream was built on loans that are never likely to be repaid. Sinn also asserts that the banking crisis has not yet been resolved, because the necessary write-offs of toxic assets have largely been swept under the carpet. Comparing actual worldwide write-offs with those estimated by the IMF estimates, he concludes that substantial parts, if not most, of the true losses have yet to be revealed and that the banking systems of many countries are on the brink of insolvency. In view of this, he directs sharp criticism at the various economic rescue packages, arguing that the plans assume that banks have a liquidity problem while, in fact, they suffer from a solvency crisis. Sinn points out that the conflict between the goals of rescuing banks in the short term and inducing more prudent behaviour in the long term requires the government to help the banks, but not their shareholders, by becoming a temporary co-owner. In addition, he calls for higher equity requirements, a worldwide return to more cautious accounting methods, a ban on extremely speculative short selling, and strict regulations on conduits, hedge funds and credit default swaps. This authoritative account provides an invaluable overview for academics, students, policymakers, politicians, and all those with an interest in the unprecedented 2008 banking crisis.

A leading economist develops a supply-side approach to fighting climate change that encourages resource owners to leave more of their fossil carbon underground.The Earth is getting warmer. Yet, as Hans-Werner Sinn points out in this provocative book, the dominant policy approach-which aims to curb consumption of fossil energy-has been ineffective. Despite policy makers' efforts to promote alternative energy, impose emission controls on cars, and enforce tough energy-efficiency standards for buildings, the relentlessly rising curve of CO2 output does not show the slightest downward turn. Some proposed solutions are downright harmful: cultivating crops to make biofuels not only contributes to global warming but also uses resources that should be devoted to feeding the world's hungry. In The Green Paradox, Sinn proposes a new, more pragmatic approach based not on regulating the demand for fossil fuels but on controlling the supply.The owners of carbon resources, Sinn explains, are pre-empting future regulation by accelerating the production of fossil energy while they can. This is the "Green Paradox": expected future reduction in carbon consumption has the effect of accelerating climate change. Sinn suggests a supply-side solution: inducing the owners of carbon resources to leave more of their wealth underground. He proposes the swift introduction of a "Super-Kyoto" system-gathering all consumer countries into a cartel by means of a worldwide, coordinated cap-and-trade system supported by the levying of source taxes on capital income-to spoil the resource owners' appetite for financial assets.Only if we can shift our focus from local demand to worldwide supply policies for reducing carbon emissions, Sinn argues, will we have a chance of staving off climate disaster.

Redesigning the Welfare State argues that the current high level of unemployment in Germany not only creates a major challenge for the German welfare state, but is to a good extent caused by the way the country's welfare system is designed. The authors review the public debate on labour market reforms, which has been ongoing since 2002, and discuss the first set of reforms that have been enacted since then. As the reforms carried out so far fall short of what is actually needed to increase employment and economic growth in the Eurozone's largest economy, the authors introduce a proposal for a more fundamental redesign of the German welfare state. With comparative discussions of important elements of recent labour market reforms in the US, the UK and the rest of Europe, this book will appeal to all labour market researchers, and to those with an interest in applied work and policy advising in Germany. It will also appeal to decision makers and experts at international organisations and think tanks with a specialisation on Europe and Germany.

Competition between companies tends to be beneficial for the general public, but is this also true for competition between States in a world with global financial markets, low transport costs, and increasing migration? In this book, Sinn provides a solid economic analysis of the competitive forces at work and addresses how we should organize competition between systems so they will enhance the efficiency of these systems, as opposed to acting destructively on them. Provides a thorough economic analysis of the competitive forces at work between nations and governments.Analyzes a wide range of state activities, including taxation, public goods provision, income redistribution, environmental policy, safety standards, and competition policy.Addresses ways to organize competition so it will enhance the efficiency of these systems.

Competition between companies tends to be beneficial for the general public, but is this also true for competition between States in a world with global financial markets, low transport costs, and increasing migration? In this book, Sinn provides a solid economic analysis of the competitive forces at work and addresses how we should organize competition between systems so they will enhance the efficiency of these systems, as opposed to acting destructively on them. Provides a thorough economic analysis of the competitive forces at work between nations and governments.Analyzes a wide range of state activities, including taxation, public goods provision, income redistribution, environmental policy, safety standards, and competition policy.Addresses ways to organize competition so it will enhance the efficiency of these systems.

The German state banks - or Landesbanks - are not only some of the largest banks in Germany but are also a dominant force in the international banking sector. These state-owned banks enjoy special privileges and government support which have made them major players in the global arena of banking and finance.Protected by the German taxpayer's seemingly bottomless pockets in the form of state warranties, Landesbanks are able to take part in financing some of the largest projects in the world. They occupy nearly fifty per cent of the top places in both Moody's and Standard and Poor's international rankings. Professor Sinn critically scrutinizes the privileges of the German Landesbanks and questions the justification of government intervention in the banking sector. He predicts that European integration and the introduction of the euro will lead to a fierce take-over battle between Europe's banks. He argues that, given the state warranties, it seems likely that the German Landesbanks will be among the winners in this battle and concludes that the German public banking system has grown far larger than is appropriate for a market economy.This timely book addresses issues of concern for European bankers and policymakers alike. It will also be of interest to students and scholars of financial economics, European integration and money and banking.

The Fundamental Issues Involved Why do we need a theory of uncertainty? It is a fact that almost all man's economic decisions are made under conditions of uncertainty, but this fact alone does not provide a strong enough argument for making the effort necessary to generalize ordinary preference theory designed for a world of perfect certainty. In accordance with Occam's Razor, the mathematician may well welcome a generalization of assumptions even if it does not promise more than a restatement of known results. The economist, however, will only be well disposed towards making the effort if he can expect to achieve new insights and interesting results, for he is interested in the techniques necessary for the generalization only as means to an end, not as ends in themselves. A stronger reason for developing a theory of uncertainty, therefore, seems to be the fact that there are kinds of economic activities to which the non-stochastic preference theory has no access or has access only through highly artificial constructions. Such activities include portfolio decisions of wealth holders, speculation, and insurance. These will be considered in detail in the last chapter of the book. The main purpose of this book, however, is not to apply a theory of uncertainty to concrete economic problems, the purpose rather is to formulate such a theory.