Henry H. Willis

Attacks on soft targets and crowded places are a significant challenge. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security requires research and development to assess methods for reducing the propensity and loss of life from these types of attacks. Researchers conducted a comprehensive landscape assessment of the threat and corresponding security measures in order to identify needs for improvement, and they recommended research and investment priorities.

Communities, companies, and governments at all levels in the United States are making decisions that will influence where, what and how infrastructure will be built. This report describes insights about exposures from natural hazards now and in the future, as well as gaps in data that, if filled, could improve the nation s ability to assess infrastructure risk and improve infrastructure resilience."

This study assesses whether Army policy, doctrine, and guidance adequately address environmental activities in post-conflict phases of contingencies. A review of policy, doctrine, operational experience, and documentation, as well as interviews with Army personnel, indicates that environmental concerns can have significant impacts.Recommendations are made for improving the Army's approach to environmental issues in contingency operations.It looks at the growing importance of environmental considerations for the Army in contingency operations, and recommendations for ways to better address environmental issues in Army planning, training, policy, guidance, and operations.

This monograph provides a practical definition of terrorism risk, presents a method of estimating it, and demonstrates a framework for evaluating this method. Results support conclusions on how to improve risk-based resource allocation. The Department of Homeland Security is responsible for protecting the United States from terrorism. It does so partly through the Urban Areas Security Initiative, though its distribution has been criticized for not reflecting risk. This monograph offers a practical definition of terrorism risk and a method for estimating it that addresses inherent uncertainties. It also demonstrates a framework for evaluating alternative risk estimates. Finally, it makes five recommendations for improving resource allocation.

To provide transparency into the decisionmaking process surrounding its planning processes, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) asked RAND to develop a risk assessment methodology that can be used to identify the greatest risks to homeland security and support prioritization of DHS mission elements. The methodology is presented in this report.

RAND researchers developed a framework and metrics for examining vulnerabilities, opportunities, and risks to U.S. transmission, storage, and distribution (TS&D) systems through 2030 under a range of uncertainties. They assessed major stresses on and opportunities in three TS&D systems: oil and refined-oil products, electric power, and natural gas. They also considered the resilience that these systems have to short-term shocks and disruptions.

This report serves as the technical documentation and reference document for the data, methods, and analytic approach used in the analysis of national exposures to infrastructure from natural disasters. The analysis includes 11 natural hazards and five infrastructure sectors. Analytic findings about current and future exposures of infrastructure in the United States drawn from this data analysis are documented in a separate report.

The U.S. Coast Guard needs to measure its operational-level performance effectively. To assist this effort, the authors created logic models detailing elements of the Coast Guard s 11 missions. After identifying and assessing the validity, reliability, and feasibility of relevant existing metrics, the authors go on to propose potential metrics that could improve on or complement existing metrics, as well as a framework for applying the metrics."

To ensure that federal agencies incorporate key principles of resilience into their formulation, evaluation, and prioritization of infrastructure investments related to Sandy rebuilding, the Presidential Hurricane Sandy Rebuilding Task Force developed its Infrastructure Resilience Guidelines. RAND researchers conducted an initial assessment of federal agencies implementation of the guidelines to identify the main opportunities and challenges."

The Cooperative Biological Engagement Program partners with about 20 countries in different regions around the world and works with them to address diverse threats to international security. This report describes a project to develop a comprehensive evaluation framework and recommends metrics for assessing and communicating progress toward the program s goals."

Department of Defense (DoD) installations rely on the commercial electricity grid for 99 percent of their electricity needs, but the U.S. electricity grid is vulnerable to disruption from natural hazards and actor-induced outages, such as physical or cyber attacks. Using portfolio analysis methods for assessing capability options, this paper presents a framework to evaluate choices among energy security strategies for DoD installations.

To determine whether the industrial base for the U.S. domestic coal-based electricity generation industry can maintain the capability to design, construct, operate, and maintain coal-fired electricity generating units within reasonable cost, schedule, performance, environmental, and quality expectations, this book reviews interviews with stakeholders and data describing key elements of industry capability and validation or verification of concerns.

U.S. railroads have improved their productivity, but increasing freight volume threatens performance - degrading capacity constraints. This report describes the current state of railroad capacity and performance for freight transportation. The public consequences of private investment decisions justify a public role in addressing concerns about railroads, but better data and analysis are needed to inform transportation policymaking.U.S. railroads have improved their productivity, but increasing freight volume threatens to cause performance - degrading capacity constraints. This report describes the current state of railroad capacity and performance for freight transportation.

The Department of Homeland Security is moving increasingly to risk analysis and risk-based resource allocation, a process that is designed to manage the greatest risks instead of attempting to protect everything. The authors show how a probabilistic terrorism model can be used to assess terrorist risk across cities and within specific cities, and to assist intelligence analysis.