James C. Mulvenon

This report analyzes the individual strengths and weaknesses of China's defense industrial complex. It examines four specific defense-industrial sectors - missiles, aircraft, shipbuilding, and information technology. It argues that China's defense industry is gradually emerging from two and a half decades of neglect, inefficiency and corruption. As part of a larger RAND Project AIR FORCE study on Chinese military modernization, this document analyzes the individual strengths and weaknesses of four specific defense-industrial sectors - missile, aircraft, shipbuilding, and information technology - to explain variations in performance among those sectors, with a focus on differences in institutional arrangements, incentives, and exposure to market forces, and to evaluate the prospects for China's defense industry and its ability to contribute to military modernization.

This book projects future growth in Chinese defense expenditures, evaluates the current and likely future capabilities of China's defense industries, and compares likely future defense expenditure levels with recent expenditures by the United States and the U.S. Air Force.

Considers potential Chinese responses to U.S. transformation efforts and offers possible U.S. counterresponses. For the past decade, Chinese military strategists have keenly observed the changes in U.S. national strategy and military transformation. This report examines the constraints, facilitators, and potential options for Chinese responses to U.S. transformation efforts and offers possible U.S. counterresponses (particularly in light of whether Taiwan moves toward or away from formal independence).

The product of a conference jointly sponsored by the RAND Corporation and Centre Asie Ifri, this volume presents transatlantic views of Chinese foreign policy and national security goals. It offers a common path for engaging China as a rising power. The product of a conference jointly sponsored by the RAND Corporation and Centre Asie Ifri, this volume represents a transatlantic view of Chinese national strategy and capabilities and offers a common path for engaging rising Chinese power. Its aim is to examine the issues through a U.S.-French prism and to facilitate analysis of how to develop U.S.-European cooperation on China policy.

Is U.S. high-technology manufacturing at risk? In response to the concern that an increasing amount of high-technology manufacturing formerly performed in the United States is now being done overseas, the Office of Science and Technology Policy asked the Rand Corporation to provide analytic support to the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology. The support included a description of past and current trends of U.S. high-tech manufacturing, a theoretical and empirical economic analysis of traditional and high-tech manufacturing, and an analysis of U.S. research and development statistics and of trends in choices of academic disciplines.

Analyzes the dynamics of the transfer of technology and capital between Taiwan and China and assesses their impact on cross-Strait relations and the worldwide semiconductor industry The flows of trade and investment across the Taiwan Strait have increased dramatically in recent years, driven largely by the increasing integration of the information technology (IT) sectors of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China. This report examines the economic and political implications of cross-Strait flows of technology and capital. The authors comprehensively analyze the investment and IT transfer dynamics between Taiwan and China and their implications for the global semiconductor industry and U.S. policymaking.

This work presents the results of a conference that brought together experts to evaluate issues of structure and process in the People's Liberation Army.

Chinese dissents are increasingly communicating via the Internet, but Beijing still has the upper hand.

Describes Taiwan's foreign and defense policies and influences on them; assesses their implications for U.S. policy. Taiwan's foreign and defense policies have evolved greatly since the days of Chiang Kai-Shek. Its leaders have created a government based on popular sovereignty rather than Chinese nationalism; adopted pragmatic and creative approaches to expanding its international presence, and sought to make itself safe from attack or coercion by Mainland China through acquiring modern weapons, building a more efficient military, and developing closer military and political ties with the United States. China, in turn, has adopted a complex strategy of pressures and enticements to arrest Taiwan's moves toward greater independence. The United States and Japan also wield substantial influence over Taiwan's foreign and defense policies, but U.S. influence is clearly the dominant influence on Taiwan's decisions about theater ballistic missile defenses(-providing information and advice that will strongly shape the course of Taiwan's planning, procurement, and deployment. The authors conclude that the United States should continue to maintain a public allegiance to the "One China" concep

In 1978, faced with the pressure to modernize and a declining budget, the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) reluctantly agreed to join China's economic reform drive, expanding its internal economy to market-oriented civilian production. This work examines PLA's role in the economy up to 1998.

In 1978, faced with the pressure to modernize and a declining budget, the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) reluctantly agreed to join China's economic reform drive, expanding its internal economy to market-oriented civilian production. This work examines PLA's role in the economy up to 1998.

An examination of long-term trends in Chinese military institutional development. It assesses their impact on the future evolution of the People's Liberation Army, concluding that the PLA has undergone a generational shift from the revolutionary generation to a new post-liberation cohort.