James Hosek

Analyzes many alternatives for reforming the military compensation system, focusing on retirement compensation, and reaches two concepts for reform. Both concepts retain positive aspects of the current system while also providing cost savings, improving equity, potentially adding force management flexibility, and simplifying the Department of Defense disability compensation system.

This study begins to extend the dynamic retention model to federal civil service employment. Models are estimated and then used to simulate the effects of pay freezes and unpaid furloughs. Permanent pay freezes decrease the workforce retained by 7.3 to 8.5 percent; temporary freezes as well as furloughs have virtually no impact. For all the employee subgroups considered, the fit to actual data is excellent, and all of the model parameter estimates are statistically significant.

This report documents efforts to implement a capability for the U.S. Department of Defense to assess alternative policies to enhance officer retention using estimates of behavioral responses to policy and provides source code and foundations of a spreadsheet version of the model.

RAND Arroyo Center researchers analyzed a proposal allowing vested Army reservists to receive military retirement benefits immediately upon retiring from the Selected Reserve. They assessed effects on the size and experience mix of the Army reserve and active components, for enlisted personnel and officers, and for the steady state and the transition to it. They concluded the proposal would save the Army $800 million per year in personnel costs.

This research extends the dynamic retention model to simulate the transition to the steady state, providing researchers with the ability to assess the effects of workforce management policies both in the steady state and in the transition to the steady state as well as to assess the effects of alternative implementation strategies. It helps policymakers better understand workforce dynamics and how they respond to policy change.

This report assesses the contribution of defense spending in Hawaii to the overall levels of output, employment, and earnings in Hawaii's economy. The analysis finds that spending on defense procurement and personnel was related to 18 percent of Hawaii's 2009 GDP and 101,000 jobs. A sensitivity analysis indicates that defense personnel savings rates and where some earnings are spent could decrease the result by around 10 percent.

To determine whether enlistment and reenlistment bonuses are effective in maintaining or increasing the supply of personnel to the armed forces, the authors provide an empirical analysis of bonuses' effects. They developed models to assess whether bonuses have contributed to recruiting success and retention, whether they have been used flexibly, and whether they have been used efficiently, using data for each service, but particularly the Army.

This research sought to understand how recent deployments have affected reenlistment by examining trends in deployments and reenlistments, developing a theoretical model, and conducting an econometric analysis of survey and administrative data to identify the effect of deployment, by service, on reenlistment. It also examined the role of reenlistment bonuses in maintaining reenlistment levels during the war on terrorism.

Military compensation is a pillar of the all-volunteer force. Its importance is such that it is reviewed every four years to determine whether it is adequate to meet the U.S. military's objectives. To inform the 10th Quadrennial Review of Military Compensation, this monograph presents the results of estimation and simulations of a model designed to assess the U.S. military's current retirement-benefit system and several policy alternatives.

Is the United States in danger of losing its competitive edge in science and technology? This volume reviews the arguments surrounding this issue and contrasts them with relevant data, including trends in research and development investment; information on the size, composition, and pay of the U.S. science and engineering workforce; and domestic and international education statistics. The authors conclude with recommendations for policymakers.This volume examines claims that the United States is losing its position as a global leader in science and technology and offers policy recommendations to address such concerns.

Provides input regarding alternativec ompensation proposals for the reserve components and the broader issues surrounding reserve retirement reform. Four bills are pending in Congress to reduce the age at which reservists can begin to receive retirement benefits. This report provides input regarding these proposals and the broader issues surrounding reserve retirement reform. Although it is important to recognize that deferring some portion of compensation can be cost-effective, the results argue in favor of providing compensation on a current rather than a deferred basis.

One-liner: Discusses how manpower and personnel policies can be used to produce the changes in military culture needed for transformation. 450-character abstract: Military transformation requires a reassessment of the military's current manpower and personnel policies. The authors discuss the types of personnel management and compensation policy changes that might be required and examine several compensation approaches that could increase flexibility in managing personnel and support a culture of creativity, entrepreneurial activity, and intelligent risk-taking.

To offer insights into the challenges faced by active-duty service members deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan and their families in coping with these challenges, and the adequacy of defense manpower policy in assisting members and families, this monograph draws on the perspectives of economics, sociology, and psychology; provides a formal model of deployment and retention; reviews published work; reports on the results of focus groups conducted in each of the services; and presents findings from an analysis of survey data.

This report focuses on the factors affecting the supply of information technology (IT) personnel to the active duty enlisted force, and the findings point to the conclusion that the IT training opportunities offered by the military can help secure the supply of IT personnel over the long haul. During the 1990s, the private-sector demand for information technology (IT) workers, escalating private-sector pay in IT, growing military dependence on IT, and faltering military recruiting led to a concern that the military cap ability was vulnerable to a large shortfall in IT personnel. This report addresses that concern by use of a literature review, field interviews, data analysis, and a dynamic model that, taken together, offer some policy implications for military planners in terms of how to recruit and retain qualified IT personnel.

Extends the military services1 usual definition of quality--high school diploma graduate and scoring in the upper half on the Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT)--to include performance as indicated by speed of promotion during the first term. Future assessment of personnel quality and of policies that affect quality should employ measures of quality that reflect both entry-level measures and performance in service.