Jeffrey Schott

NAFTA entered into force in 1994 after a bitter Congressional debate. But NAFTA in operation has proved no less controversial than NAFTA before ratification, for both supporters and opponents of trade liberalization have cited experience with the agreement to justify their positions. To provide a factual basis for this ongoing debate, the authors evaluate NAFTA's performance over the first seven years, comparing actual experience with both the objectives of the agreement's supporters and the charges of its critics. They then examine future challenges and opportunities in the trade and investment relationships among the three partner countries and the broader implications for new trade initiatives throughout the hemisphere.

Economic sanctions continue to play an important role in the response to terrorism, nuclear proliferation, military conflicts, and other foreign policy crises. But poor design and implementation of sanctions policies often mean they fall short of their desired effects. This landmark study, first published in 1985, delves into the rich experience of sanctions in the 20th century to harvest lessons on how to use sanctions more effectively. This volume - now conveniently available in a paperback format - is the third and expanded edition of this widely cited study. The authors' unique database on sanctions now covers almost 200 case studies. The analysis is substantially revised to take account of the new challenges facing policymakers since the end of the Cold War and the acceleration of globalization of trade and financial markets. This study is offered in two parts: Economic Sanctions Reconsidered, which summarizes the analysis and outlines the policy recommendations, and Economic Sanctions Reconsidered: Case Histories and Data, a supplemental CD-ROM containing the case studies and new database.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) between 12 Pacific Rim countries has generated the most intensive political debate about the role of trade in the United States in a generation. The TPP is one of the broadest and most progressive free trade agreements since the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The essays in this Policy Analysis provide estimates of the TPP's benefits and costs and analyze more than 20 issues in the agreement, including environmental and labor standards, tariff schedules, investment and competition policy, intellectual property, ecommerce, services and financial services, government procurement, dispute settlement, and agriculture. Through extensive analysis of the TPP text, PIIE scholars present an indispensable and detailed "reader's guide" that also sheds light on the agreement's merits and shortcomings.

In the wake of the Great Recession of 2008-09, economists feared that protectionist policies might sweep the world economy, echoing the wave of tariff escalations during the Great Depression of the 1930s. To some surprise, officials were more restrained and largely avoided traditional forms of protection (tariffs and quotas). As a result, economists underestimated the incidence of new protectionism because policymakers increasingly turned to more opaque behind-the-border nontariff barriers (NTBs). Using a combination of statistical analysis and case studies, the authors show that local content requirements (LCRs), a form of NTB, have become increasingly popular. How much was global trade actually reduced on account of LCRs? A conservative estimate might be $93 billion. Case studies featured cover the healthcare sector in Brazil, wind turbines in Canada, the automobile industry in China, solar cells and modules in India, oil and gas in Nigeria, and "Buy American" restrictions on government procurement.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a big deal in the making. With the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations at an impasse, the TPP negotiations have taken center stage as the most significant trade initiative of the 21st century. As of December 2012, negotiators have made extensive progress in 15 negotiating rounds since the talks began in March 2010, though hard work remains to finish the deal in the coming year or so. Despite this effort, however, the TPP is not well understood. In part, the reason lies in the dynamism of the TPP initiative. Unlike other free trade pacts, the growing membership as the talks have proceeded, and the broad range, complexity, and novelty of the issues on the agenda have made it difficult to track the substantive detail and progress of the talks. This Policy Analysis aims to remedy this problem by providing a reader's guide to the TPP initiative. It first assesses how much the TPP countries are alike and like-minded in their pursuit of a comprehensive trade deal.It then examines the current status of the talks, the major substantive sticking points, and the implications of Canada and Mexico joining the talks as well as prospective membership of other countries. The Policy Analysis then looks ahead to how the TPP could advance economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region and the implications for trade relations with China.

The global economic and financial crisis has awakened protectionist sentiments around the world, and policymakers have failed to actively seek trade liberalization. In light of this, some have proposed abandoning the Doha Round and starting over with a new agenda. Figuring Out the Doha Round argues that this is far from the time to drop the Doha Round and that it is now more important than ever to sustain political support for the rules-based multilateral trade system. This important new study recommends modest increments in market access commitments by G-20 countries beyond tariff and subsidy cuts in agriculture and nonagricultural market access (NAMA), and policy reforms in customs procedures and related areas that slash red tape and cut transactions costs for exporting and importing goods and services. With additional effort by the G-20 countries, WTO countries can put together a Doha package that is both ambitious and balanced between the interests of developed and developing countries. The study finds that following these recommendations can lead to a world GDP gain of almost $300 billion a year.

NAFTA remains a centerpiece of US trade-policy debate, but its provisions have sacrificed environmental concerns for the sake of trade liberalization. This timely volume analyzes the national policies of the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The authors explain how the competing priorities of province, state, or government agendas can slow coordination measures to curtail emissions throughout North America. But, North American cooperation could serve as a model for how developed and developing countries can mutually benefit from an international climate change agreement. Emission reduction is now inextricably linked with trade and finance measures in this post-Kyoto era. The authors argue that the three NAFTA partners can work together to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while mitigating concerns about trade competitiveness. NAFTA and Climate Change provides a critical assessment of how NAFTA initiatives will contribute to the achievement of important climate-change goals at both regional and global levels.This thorough investigation advances potential solutions, and ideas to develop practical channels for transferring technical and financial assistance from developed to developing countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and further economic development.

The success of the United States' Middle East strategy depends importantly on the future course of US-Egypt economic relations. Deepening bilateral commercial and investment ties can pay both commercial and political dividends as the Obama administration refocuses US strategy in the Middle East. While the United States and Egypt have long been close partners, revitalizing US-Egypt economic relations will spur innovation and productivity gains, open new development opportunities in Egypt through expanded trade and investment, and create important precedents for future regional initiatives. In this study, the authors first assess the two countries' current commercial relationship and then provide concrete suggestions for enhancing and expanding specific areas of the US-Egypt economic relationship, such as market access, services, trade facilitation and development cooperation. Ultimately, the study sets out several promising avenues for strengthening economic ties.

Economic sanctions continue to play an important role in the response to terrorism, nuclear proliferation, military conflicts, and other foreign policy crises. But poor design and implementation of sanctions policies often mean that they fall short of their desired effects. This landmark study, first published in 1985, delves into the rich experience of sanctions in the 20th century to harvest lessons on how to use sanctions more effectively. This volume is the updated third edition of this widely cited study. It chronicles and examines 170 cases of economic sanctions imposed since World War I. Fifty of these cases were launched in the 1990s and are new to this edition. Special attention is paid to new developments arising from the end of the Cold War and increasing globalization of the world economy. Analyzing a range of economic and political factors that can influence the success of a sanctions episode, the authors distill a set of commandments to guide policymakers in the effective use of sanctions.

This volume analyzes the economic effects of a prospective free trade agreement between the United States and Colombia. The study uses the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model of world trade and economic activity to analyze the expected trade and other economic impacts of the prospective FTA and to examine bilateral trade and investment flows, bilateral trade frictions, and implications of the prospective accords for the bilateral, regional, and global trade relations of the two countries.

In this conference volume, distinguished economists and trade policymakers address the US initiatives to enter into free trade negotiations with a broad range of countries in the Asia-Pacific region, the Western Hemisphere, and Africa. The sheer number of these initiatives is unprecedented and has provoked major policy questions concerning US interests in the negotiations, the setting of priorities among the many contenders for concluding free trade agreements (FTAs) with the United States, the objectives of those trading partners, and the implications that these agreements could have for broader initiatives such as the Doha Round in the World Trade Organization and the Free Trade Area of the Americas. The papers in the volume were presented during a conference on FTAs and US trade policy, sponsored by the Institute in May 2003.The editor, Jeffrey Schott, summarizes the policy implications drawn from the conference papers and discussions, which are organized around several topics: the conceptual case for FTAs and how they have worked in the past; what FTAs imply for the broader global system; the specific agreements that are already being pursued (Australia, Central America, Morocco, southern Africa) or considered (ASEAN, Brazil, Egypt, Korea, and Taiwan). The volume includes a technical appendix with results of GTAP and gravity model simulations of the trade and welfare effects of the prospective agreements.

Negotiations on a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) were officially launched at the Santiago Summit in April 1998. This study examines the prospects for the FTAA in light of recent economic and political turmoil in Latin America and the continuing impasse over US "fast-track" authority. The study evaluates progress to date in the trade talks and proposals for accelerating the target date of January 2005 for concluding negotiations, and it takes into account the results of the April 2001 Quebec Summit. It surveys regional interests in the wide-ranging negotiating agenda and assesses the "readiness" of countries to participate in a hemisphere-wide free trade zone (based on updated "readiness indicators" originally developed by Hufbauer and Schott in their 1994 study, Western Hemisphere Economic Integration).

Free trade agreements (FTAs) are proliferating in the Asia-Pacific region. For the first time, Korea is pursuing such accords as part of a strategy to restructure its economy and sustain the recovery from its 1997-98 economic crisis. Should it open talks with its largest trading partner, the United States? This study examines the economic and political benefits and challenges of pursuing bilateral FTA negotiations, the impact of a prospective pact on other trading partners, on the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, and on the multilateral trading system.

Air and water pollution blighted northern Mexican cities long before the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was a glimmer on the political horizon. Not surprisingly, when NAFTA became a political reality, environmentalists argued that commercial competition would weaken environmental standards in Canada and the United States and industrial growth in Mexico would further damage its weak environmental infrastructure. NAFTA's huge success in expanding free trade has concentrated population and environmental abuse at the US-Mexico border where it is most visible to Americans. Many environmental groups blame NAFTA and, drawing on its experience, now oppose new trade initiatives.Does the NAFTA record on the environment since 1994 justify its criticism? In this seven-year analysis, the authors review NAFTA's environmental provisions, including a side accord-the North American Agreement on Environmental Cooperation (NAAEC), the situation at the US-Mexican border, and the trends in North American environmental policy. They emphasize that the environmental problems of North America were not the result of NAFTA and the NAAEC was not devised to address all of them.The authors recommend ways to better NAFTA's environmental dimension in all three countries, and improve living conditions where economic growth is greatest-at the US-Mexican border. It makes more sense to tackle the shortcomings than to lament NAFTA and the economic growth it promotes.

The failure of the Seattle trade ministerial in December 1999 to launch a new round of multilateral trade negotiations dealt a major blow to the World Trade Organization (WTO). The Seattle meetings exposed significant policy differences among the WTO member countries as well as shortcomings in the way the WTO conducts its business and interacts with other international and nongovernmental organizations. The WTO after Seattle analyzes the problems and challenges facing the trading system in the aftermath of the Seattle ministerial. Leading trade experts examine why it is in the interests of both developed and developing countries to reengage in new trade talks, and how such talks could promote world trade and economic development, reform WTO operations, and strengthen public support for the trading system. The volume presents balanced perspectives on world trade problems by authors from the United States, Europe, Asia, and Latin America, with recommendations on what needs to be done in key areas to launch new talks.The authors address the WTO's existing mandate to negotiate on agriculture and services, as well as how to handle new issues such as investment, competition policy, e-commerce, and trade-related environmental and labor issues. The editor, Jeffrey J. Schott, provides a comprehensive overview of the issues facing the WTO and of what needs to be done to begin a new round.

The end of the 20th century will mark the beginning of a new era for the world trading system. More than 130 member countries of the World Trade Organization (WTO) will begin negotiations in 1999 on a broad range of subjects, including agriculture, services, intellectual property, and trade and the environment. The authors in this volume analyze the key issues that should be on the agenda of new WTO negotiations to meet the challenges generated by the Asian financial crisis, concerns about the impact of globalization on firms and workers, and the proliferation of regional trading pacts. They present a compelling case for comprehensive trade talks that include new issues such as investment and competition policy, in addition to subjects already part of the WTO's built-in agenda. The overview chapter by Jeffrey J. Schott examines the work of the WTO since its establishment in January 1995 (including its dispute settlement mechanism) and the key challenges facing new trade talks. In addition, Schott proposes a new negotiating strategy to produce concrete results without the lengthy delays of past trade talks.He recommends that governments commit to continuous negotiations in Geneva and use the regularly scheduled meetings of trade ministers to conclude a balanced "round-up" of agreements every two years. An appendix contains statements made by WTO Director General Renato Ruggiero and US Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky on the importance of WTO negotiations and the key US objectives in pursuing those talks.

Trade experts from around the world discuss challenges confronting the World Trade Organization (WTO) as it charts its course for the years ahead. The authors offer recommendations to deal with important issues such as investment, competition and antidumping policy, environment and trade, labor standards, and Chinese accession to the WTO. Analysis of the implementation of the Uruguay Round accords, the breadth and scope of remaining barriers to trade that could be the subject of new liberalization efforts, the compatibility or inconsistency of regional and multilateral initiatives, and the political support in major trading countries for new WTO negotiations are also discussed. The overview and conclusions also appear in a separate monograph by Jeffrey J. Schott. Jeffrey J. Schott joined the Peterson Institute for International Economics in 1983 and is a senior fellow working on international trade policy and economic sanctions. During his tenure at the Institute, Schott was also a visiting lecturer at Princeton University (1994) and an adjunct professor at Georgetown University (1986-88).He was a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (1982-83) and an official of the US Treasury Department (1974-82) in international trade and energy policy. During the Tokyo Round of multilateral trade negotiations, he was a member of the US delegation that negotiated the GATT Subsidies Code. Since January 2003, he has been a member of the Trade and Environment Policy Advisory Committee of the US government. He is also a member of the State Department's Advisory Committee on International Economic Policy.

By the year 2000, world trade in merchandise goods and commercial services will probably exceed $8 trillion, or $2 trillion more than in 1995. By that date, the World Trade Organization (WTO) may well have more than 130 member countries that account for about 95 percent of world trade. The millennium also will mark an important milestone for the WTO: new WTO negotiations on agriculture and services will be under way with the goal of achieving the progressive liberalization of remaining barriers to trade. This monograph explores how WTO members should prepare for these negotiations. It discusses the Singapore ministerial meeting and its importance in starting WTO deliberations, examines how the agenda of such talks should be crafted to meet these challenges to the trading system, proposes initiatives to achieve further trade reforms and to extend WTO obligations to other trade-related aspects of government policy, and explores whether such new initiatives are feasible-that is, whether there is sufficient political support for new trade reforms in the major trading nations.The text concludes with some recommendations on how the new WTO initiative could be launched and implemented over the next five years.