Joseph Buchdahl

Almost everyone is familiar with Monte Carlo's association with gambling, and its famous Casino. Many may also have come across the Monte Carlo fallacy, so-called after the Casino's roulette wheel ball fell on black 26th times in a row, costing players, who believed that the law of averages made such streaks impossible, millions of dollars. However, the Casino also lends its name to a tool of statistical forecasting, the Monte Carlo simulation, used to model the probability of uncertain outcomes that cannot be easily predicted from mathematical equations. This book provides a detailed account for how aspiring sports bettors can use a Monte Carlo simulation to improve the quality, and hopefully profitability, of their betting, and in doing so unravels the mystery of probability and variance that lies at the heart of all gambling.

People have been gambling, in one form or another, for as long as history itself. Why? Money, entertainment, escape and a desire to win are all traditional explanations. Arguably, however, these are secondary considerations to a higher order purpose: a craving for control. Gambling offers a means of gaining authority over the unknown, granting us a sense of control over uncertainty. Almost always that sense is illusory - gambling, including betting and investing, is essentially random - yet for many it is nonetheless profoundly rewarding. This book attempts to explore the reasons why. Along the way, it examines: The science of probability and uncertaintyWhy gambling is often condemnedThe difference between expectation and utilityThe irrationality of human beingsEvolutionary perspectives on gamblingLuck and skillMarket efficiency and the wisdom of crowdsWhy winners take allCheatingWhy the process matters more than the outcome

Few people manage to make money from gambling; fewer still make a living from it. Written for hardened and novice sports bettors alike, Joseph Buchdahl's Fixed Odds Sports Betting examines, through various numerical techniques, how fixed odds punters may learn to beat the bookmaker, protect profits through a sensible approach to risk management, and turn high-risk gambling into a form of low-risk investment. Fixed Odds Sports Betting investigates: Markets in fixed odds sports bettingThe bookmaker's overroundValue bettingRatings systems for sports predictionProfitability and riskSingles versus accumulatorsStaking plans and money managementThe favourite-longshot biasSports advisory servicesBetting records and their significance testing