Krystyna Marcinek

The authors examine areas of convergence and divergence in the Belarus-Russia relationship, particularly regarding foreign and domestic policies, military and security cooperation, and economic and defense industrial ties. They also consider the regional perspectives of Belarus's neighbors--Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Ukraine--and how the Belarus-Russia relationship poses an evolving threat to those countries' security.

Because of the increasing militarization of Russian foreign policy since 2008, it is important to understand the formal authorities and responsibilities of the Russian General Staff as well as its capacity to influence Russia's national security decisionmaking process. In this report, the authors develop a foundational text for policymakers and warfighters to improve collective understanding of this institution.

To support defense planners in crafting effective deterrence strategies for Europe and the Middle East, RAND researchers conducted a multimethod analysis--consisting of a literature review, roundtables with subject-matter experts, quantitative analysis, and a case study of Ukraine--to assess the effectiveness of U.S. forward presence, exercises and short-term deployments, and security cooperation for deterring Russian and Iranian aggression.

The authors explore Russian views on the military applications of robotics and artificial intelligence and the motivations for the development of those capabilities. They investigate the degree of autonomy that Russians might be willing to delegate to machines and to what extent Moscow plans to replace (versus augment) human soldiers with robots. They also assess whether Moscow has delivered--or can deliver--its robotization vision.

Military forecasting informs long-term military planning of the Russian Ministry of Defense. In this report, the authors draw on a framework developed by the Russian military science community to examine several key indicators related to military forecasting to gain insight into the likelihood and character of future war and the correlation of military potential between Russia and potential adversaries.

The authors examine scalable analytics to detect malign or subversive information efforts, using the 2018 World Cup as a case study. The report has operational relevance to the U.S. government. It may benefit both researchers interested in going beyond post hoc recognition of malign or subversive information campaigns to in-time detection and social media companies interested in preventing their platforms from being co-opted by malign actors.

The authors of this report examine cases from Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea to understand whether and how states use cyber operations to coerce other states or actors, and highlight the challenges of identifying cyber coercion. They also propose ways to develop a deeper understanding of cyber coercion and how to counter it.