Logan Ma

The international system appears headed for a renewed era of intense competition among major powers. The authors sought to identify the factors that keep such rivalries stable and those that lead to conflictual outcomes. Leveraging theory and historical case studies, the authors created a framework for assessing the stability of a strategic rivalry, then applied it to the current U.S.-Russia and U.S.-China competitions.

The authors examine (1) the experiences of North Korea and three similar authoritarian regimes-China, Vietnam, and Cuba-to forecast why and how North Korea might adopt a new economic model; (2) what might happen if conventional deterrence fails on the Korean Peninsula; and (3) what might lead North Korea to use nuclear weapons.

Chinese primary-source materials indicate that China is aggressively working toward becoming a global leader in big data analytics as part of its plan to achieve great power status. The authors of this report assessed a variety of primary sources, including specific ministry-level plans and guidance, and pinpointed how Beijing is using big data analytics to survey its domestic population and enhance its military capabilities.

The authors of this report examine cases from Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea to understand whether and how states use cyber operations to coerce other states or actors, and highlight the challenges of identifying cyber coercion. They also propose ways to develop a deeper understanding of cyber coercion and how to counter it.

This report examines the key drivers behind China's strategic bomber flights throughout the Asia-Pacific region. It provides a review of all known flights, assesses Chinese official statements, and unofficial expert commentary on flights while leveraging many sources to better understand and gauge regional reactions. The report recommends specific responses for consideration by the U.S. Air Force, U.S. policymakers, and allies and partners.