Marek Dabrowski

Eine Folge der j ngsten globalen Finanzkrise war das rasche Wachstum der ffentlichen Verschuldung in den fortgeschrittenen Volkswirtschaften, die ein Rekordniveau in Friedenszeiten erreicht hat. Die Schwellen- und Entwicklungsl nder schienen unmittelbar nach der Krise von 2008-2009 widerstandsf higer zu sein; allerdings haben die sinkenden Rohstoffpreise und das nachlassende Wachstum in den Jahren 2014-2016 ihre Haushaltslage geschw cht. Angesichts der wachsenden Schuldenlast haben die Regierungen versucht, die "sichere" H he des Haushaltsdefizits und der Staatsverschuldung zu bestimmen. Es gibt jedoch keinen einheitlichen Standard f r fiskalische Sicherheit f r alle Volkswirtschaften. Das Ausfallrisiko kann bei verschiedenen Niveaus der ffentlichen Verschuldung auftreten. Tats chlich ist ein "sicheres" Verschuldungsniveau l nderspezifisch und h ngt von vielen Faktoren und oft unvorhersehbaren Umst nden ab. Die Lehren aus den j ngsten Krisen zeigen auch, wie wichtig eine genaue Sch tzung der fiskalischen Eventualverbindlichkeiten ist, insbesondere derjenigen, die die Stabilit t des Finanzsektors betreffen. Mit Blick auf die Zukunft sind Sch tzungen der Eventualverbindlichkeiten im Zusammenhang mit den ffentlichen Renten-, Gesundheits- und Langzeitpflegesystemen im Kontext einer alternden Gesellschaft und eines Bev lkerungsr ckgangs von gr ter Bedeutung.

Una conseguenza della recente crisi finanziaria globale stata la rapida crescita del debito pubblico nelle economie avanzate, che ha raggiunto livelli record in tempo di pace. Le economie dei mercati emergenti e in via di sviluppo sono apparse pi resistenti subito dopo la crisi del 2008-2009; tuttavia, il calo dei prezzi delle materie prime e la decelerazione della crescita nel periodo 2014-2016 hanno indebolito le loro posizioni fiscali. Di fronte al crescente onere del debito, i governi hanno cercato di determinare il livello "sicuro" di deficit fiscale e di debito pubblico. Tuttavia, non esiste un unico standard di sicurezza fiscale per tutte le economie. Il rischio di default pu verificarsi a vari livelli di debito pubblico. Infatti, un livello di indebitamento "sicuro" specifico per ogni Paese e dipende da molti fattori e circostanze spesso imprevedibili. Gli insegnamenti tratti dalle ultime crisi evidenziano anche l'importanza di stime accurate delle passivit fiscali contingenti, in particolare quelle relative alla stabilit del settore finanziario. In prospettiva, le stime delle passivit contingenti relative ai sistemi pensionistici pubblici, alla sanit e all'assistenza a lungo termine sono di primaria importanza nel contesto di una societ che invecchia e di un calo demografico.

Uma das consequ ncias da recente crise financeira mundial foi o r pido crescimento da d vida p blica nas economias avan adas, que atingiu n veis recorde em tempo de paz. As economias de mercado emergentes e em desenvolvimento pareciam mais resistentes imediatamente ap s a crise de 2008-2009; no entanto, a queda dos pre os das mat rias-primas e a desacelera o do crescimento durante 2014-2016 enfraqueceram as suas posi es or amentais. Confrontados com um peso crescente da d vida, os governos tentaram determinar o n vel "seguro" do d fice or amental e da d vida p blica. No entanto, n o existe um padr o nico de seguran a or amental para todas as economias. O risco de incumprimento pode ocorrer a v rios n veis de d vida p blica. De facto, um n vel "seguro" de endividamento espec fico de cada pa s e depende de muitos factores e de circunst ncias frequentemente imprevis veis. As li es das ltimas crises tamb m sublinham a import ncia de estimativas precisas das responsabilidades or amentais contingentes, nomeadamente as relacionadas com a estabilidade do sector financeiro. Olhando para o futuro, as estimativas das responsabilidades contingentes relacionadas com os sistemas p blicos de pens es, de sa de e de cuidados prolongados s o de import ncia primordial no contexto de uma sociedade envelhecida e de um decl nio demogr fico.

L'une des cons quences de la r cente crise financi re mondiale a t la croissance rapide de la dette publique dans les conomies avanc es, qui a atteint des niveaux record en temps de paix. Les march s mergents et les conomies en d veloppement semblaient plus r sistants imm diatement apr s la crise de 2008-2009; cependant, la baisse des prix des mati res premi res et le ralentissement de la croissance au cours de la p riode 2014-2016 ont affaibli leur situation budg taire. Confront s un endettement croissant, les gouvernements ont tent de d terminer le niveau "s r" du d ficit budg taire et de la dette publique. Cependant, il n'existe pas de norme unique de s curit budg taire pour toutes les conomies. Le risque de d faillance peut survenir diff rents niveaux de la dette publique. En fait, le niveau d'emprunt "s r" est sp cifique chaque pays et d pend de nombreux facteurs et de circonstances souvent impr visibles. Les le ons tir es des derni res crises soulignent galement l'importance d'une estimation pr cise des engagements budg taires conditionnels, notamment ceux li s la stabilit du secteur financier. l'avenir, les estimations des engagements conditionnels li s aux syst mes publics de retraite, de sant et de soins de longue dur e sont d'une importance capitale dans le contexte d'une soci t vieillissante et d'un d clin de la population.

The post-communist Central European and Baltic economies are now approaching the end of their transitions to well-functioning market systems. In some respects, the approaching EU accession and conclusion of the transition marks the end of a fascinating period in economic history. Beyond Transition focuses on the economic problems and issues facing Central Europe and the Baltics, the Balkans, and countries belonging to the Commonwealth for Independent States (CIS) in the post-transition context. This focus reflects the need to better understand two processes that are increasingly apparent in the post-communist economic space. First, many of the problems now facing policy makers in post-communist economies - choice of exchange rate regime, tax reform, labour market regulation, improving corporate governance - also face policy makers in developed and developing countries in other parts of the world. Second, the EU's eastern enlargement and the policy agendas facing the first wave accession candidates have major implications for the CIS and Balkan countries that have not been (and may never be) invited to join this process.

The post-communist Central European and Baltic economies are now approaching the end of their transitions to well-functioning market systems. In some respects, the approaching EU accession and conclusion of the transition marks the end of a fascinating period in economic history. Beyond Transition focuses on the economic problems and issues facing Central Europe and the Baltics, the Balkans, and countries belonging to the Commonwealth for Independent States (CIS) in the post-transition context. This focus reflects the need to better understand two processes that are increasingly apparent in the post-communist economic space. First, many of the problems now facing policy makers in post-communist economies - choice of exchange rate regime, tax reform, labour market regulation, improving corporate governance - also face policy makers in developed and developing countries in other parts of the world. Second, the EU's eastern enlargement and the policy agendas facing the first wave accession candidates have major implications for the CIS and Balkan countries that have not been (and may never be) invited to join this process.

With high growth rates in Asia, most notably in China, India, and Southeast and Central Asia, Eurasia's economic center of gravity is rapidly shifting to the East. At the same time, most of Europe faces serious barriers to growth in the long term. The volume examines the causes and consequences of this major shift in economic power and considers the options available to policymakers in various parts of Europe and Asia. The ten chapters in this book focus on long-term challenges of globalization rather than short-term problems of individual countries and explore two themes: global macroeconomic imbalances and growth. This work is based on a CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research and CASE-Ukraine conference.

In their earlier report, Reform in Eastern Europe, the WIDER group assessed the main building blocks of a successful transition in Eastern Europe: stabilization, price liberalization, privatization, and restructuring. For the last three years this group of leading economists has been heavily involved in the reform process. In this new report, they take stock, returning to the original themes and assessing progress and prospects, particularly in Russia.Stabilization in the major Central European countries was done very much by the book. Russia, in contrast, is following a path of restructuring without stabilization. The authors discuss how far this alternative strategy is likely to get. Turning to privatization, they note that initial plans started from the assumption that the state owned the assets. As slow progress of those plans has painfully shown, this was the wrong assumption. They point out that assets have in fact many de facto claimants, from managers to workers to local authorities to ministries, and discuss how the current Russian privatization program starts and builds up from this more realistic assessment.In the face of a collapse of trade in Eastern Europe, triggered by reform in Central Europe and a similar collapse between republics following the breakup of the Soviet Union, the authors show how simple measures such as a payments union can be used to increase trade and output.Post-Communist Reform concludes with a look at restructuring in Poland. The authors focus on the behavior of the state, the growth of the private sector, the role of financial systems, and the coherence of overall government policy, ending on a note of cautious optimism.