Mark P. Kritzman

A thought-provoking and startlingly insightful reworking of the science of prediction In Prediction Revisited: The Importance of Observation, a team of renowned experts in the field of data-driven investing delivers a ground-breaking reassessment of the delicate science of prediction for anyone who relies on data to contemplate the future. The book reveals why standard approaches to prediction based on classical statistics fail to address the complexities of social dynamics, and it provides an alternative method based on the intuitive notion of relevance. The authors describe, both conceptually and with mathematical precision, how relevance plays a central role in forming predictions from observed experience. Moreover, they propose a new and more nuanced measure of a prediction’s reliability. Prediction Revisited also offers: Clarifications of commonly accepted but less commonly understood notions of statisticsInsight into the efficacy of traditional prediction models in a variety of fieldsColorful biographical sketches of some of the key prediction scientists throughout historyMutually supporting conceptual and mathematical descriptions of the key insights and methods discussed within With its strikingly fresh perspective grounded in scientific rigor, Prediction Revisited is sure to earn its place as an indispensable resource for data scientists, researchers, investors, and anyone else who aspires to predict the future from the data-driven lessons of the past.

Discover a masterful exploration of the fallacies and challenges of asset allocation In Asset Allocation: From Theory to Practice and Beyond—the newly and substantially revised Second Edition of A Practitioner’s Guide to Asset Allocation—accomplished finance professionals William Kinlaw, Mark P. Kritzman, and David Turkington deliver a robust and insightful exploration of the core tenets of asset allocation. Drawing on their experience working with hundreds of the world’s largest and most sophisticated investors, the authors review foundational concepts, debunk fallacies, and address cutting-edge themes like factor investing and scenario analysis. The new edition also includes references to related topics at the end of each chapter and a summary of key takeaways to help readers rapidly locate material of interest. The book also incorporates discussions of: The characteristics that define an asset class, including stability, investability, and similarityThe fundamentals of asset allocation, including definitions of expected return, portfolio risk, and diversificationAdvanced topics like factor investing, asymmetric diversification, fat tails, long-term investing, and enhanced scenario analysis as well as tools to address challenges such as liquidity, rebalancing, constraints, and within-horizon risk. Perfect for client-facing practitioners as well as scholars who seek to understand practical techniques, Asset Allocation: From Theory to Practice and Beyond is a must-read resource from an author team of distinguished finance experts and a forward by Nobel prize winner Harry Markowitz.

"Risk is an inescapable feature of investing, and risk, more than anything else, is what this fine book is all about." –Peter L. Bernstein Praise for this Second Edition "For those looking for a serious introduction to the concepts and tools of quantitative financial analysis, this is a great book. The focus is economics and statistics as applied to financial markets. Though the topics are technical, the author’s wit and good sense of humor are evident throughout." –Bob Litterman, head of the Quantitative Resources Group, Goldman Sachs Asset Management "This book is an essential resource for the thoughtful practitioner and serious student of finance. Kritzman straightforwardly introduces the reader to tools and concepts of huge significance in finance and investment management today. Neither brain candy nor mental steroids, this book is solid intellectual protein. Buy it. Study it. Bulk up." –Robert F. Bruner, Distinguished Professor of Business Administration and Executive Director of the Batten Institute, Darden Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Virginia "This is a wonderful collection of wide-ranging essays on financial analysis written by a preeminent practitioner in a remarkably lucid style . . . don’t leave home without it!" –Andrew W. Lo, Harris & Harris Group Professor, MIT Sloan School Praise for the First Edition "In one book, Mark Kritzman covers the key tools of modern investment practice. Clear, concise, and always to the point, the treatment is succinct but never superficial. This valuable volume should be included in the library of every serious investor." –Dr. William F. Sharpe, Professor of Finance, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University and Nobel Prize Laureate, 1990, Economic Sciences "Mark Kritzman makes the recondite transparent, the technical accessible, and the horrendously complex elegantly simple. Keep this book close at hand and you won’t have to figure out these difficult issues again (and again and again)." –Jack R. Meyer, President and CEO, Harvard Management Company, Inc.

". . . shining clarity and enviable originality." –Peter L. Bernstein, author of Against the Gods Critical Praise for PUZZLES OF FINANCE "An extraordinary combination of the elements of finance, commonsense wisdom, sparkling humor, shining clarity, and enviable originality. This is a potent blend by any standard of measurement. Longtime Kritzman watchers, however, would anticipate nothing less." –Peter L. Bernstein, author, Against the Gods "A modest, lively, clever little book. Kritzman’s puzzles range from party tidbits to the profound, and each is presented with a bit of history, a lot of insight, and just the right measure of wit. While he may not have intended it to be more than a collection of interesting conundrums, Kritzman has actually created a wonderful introduction to finance for the uninitiated with challenges for even the most sophisticated." –Stephen A. Ross, Franco Modigliani Professor of Finance and Economics, Sloan School, MIT; Co-Chairman, Roll and Ross Asset Management Corp. "Mark Kritzman presents the reader with an entertaining way of learning some serious finance." –Harry Markowitz, Nobel Prize Recipient, 1990, Economic Sciences President, Harry Markowitz Company

". . . shining clarity and enviable originality" --Peter L. Bernstein, author of Against the Gods "Mark Kritzman presents the reader with an entertaining way of learning some serious finance." --Harry Markowitz, Nobel Prize Recipient, 1990, Economic Sciences President, Harry Markowitz Company Six challenging questions . . . six entertaining solutions, profound yet straightforward, and relevant to the everyday challenge of investing and investment management. Puzzles of Finance takes on today's most persistently challenging financial questions and, through clever examples and just plain logic, helps you move beyond those questions to arrive at a deeper understanding of finance and the daily management of money. From Siegel's Paradox ("Is it possible to profit from asymmetry of exchange rate changes?") to questions of option value ("Why is the value of an option unaffected by the underlying asset's expected return?"), Puzzles of Finance goes beyond vague theoretical suppositions to supply practical, concrete solutions that investors and money managers can benefit from every day. While the intellectually curious will be drawn to Puzzles of Finance, it is the day-to-day finance professional who will derive the most benefit from this remarkable book. In clear, concise language-with more than a touch of humor-renowned author and financial professional Mark Kritzman simplifies six of today's most perplexing financial riddles. Along the way, he presents a finance primer as practical as it is profound, as illuminating as it is entertaining. Kritzman artfully explores the relationship of such seemingly disparate fields as botany and thermodynamics to options. These proofs propel Puzzles of Finance forward with the pace of a novel. An easy-to-understand primer on financial concepts and quantitative methods combined with a technical glossary ensures that no concept is misunderstood. The result is an unprecedented book that will change the way you view finance and investing. When you invest your time in reading Puzzles of Finance, you will uncover some of the most probing and insightful lessons in financial literature today. For updates on new and bestselling Wiley Finance books: wiley.com/wbns Critical Praise for Puzzles of Finance ". . . an extraordinary combination of the elements of finance, commonsense wisdom, sparkling humor, shining clarity, and enviable originality. This is a potent blend by any standard of measurement. Long time Kritzman watchers, however, would anticipate nothing less." --Peter L. Bernstein, Author, Against the Gods "A modest, lively, clever, little book. Kritzman's puzzles range from party tidbits to the profound, and each is presented with a bit of history, a lot of insight, and just the right measure of wit. While he may not have intended it to be more than a collection of interesting conundrums, Kritzman has actually created a wonderful introduction to finance for the uninitiated with challenges for even the most sophisticated." --Stephen A. Ross, Franco Modigliani Professor of Finance and Economics, Sloan School, MIT; Co-Chairman, Roll and Ross Asset Management Corp. "Some people do crosswords. Mark Kritzman does financial puzzles and his explications amuse and instruct. Financial theory has never been this much fun."-Jack R. Meyer, President, Harvard Management Company "Puzzles of Finance should be a joy to finance mavens and even their friends! Perhaps all students of the field should be required to solve these six puzzles; they go to the heart of the intuitions for essential contributions, such as the pricing of options, the meaning of efficient diversification, and the definition of risk." --Kenneth A. Froot, Andre R. Jakurski Professor of Business Administration and Director of Research, Harvard Business School

Gary Gastineau and Mark Kritzman team up once again for the third edition of this classic reference tool designed for financial analysts and managers. Anyone involved in financial risk management must have a proper understanding of the words, terms, and phrases used in this fast paced field–and Dictionary of Financial Risk Management clearly provides that understanding. Risk management terminology is a part of almost any financial operation, including cash, forwards/futures, swaps, options–and is found in many disciplines: probability and statistics, tax and financial accounting, and law. The vocabulary of the risk manager continues to expand with the creation of new products and new concepts. This volume carefully defines and illustrates all the words and phrases that financial professionals need to know and understand. The Dictionary of Financial Risk Management includes listings of common acronyms, profit/loss diagrams of new financial instruments, and extensive coverage of derivatives and quantitative techniques. This invaluable reference guide provides comprehensive definitions of the key terms and concepts that many financial professionals need to know on a day-to-day basis.