Martin C. Libicki

The Internet is a new battleground between governments that censor online content and those who advocate freedom for all to browse, post, and share information online. This report examines how Internet freedom may transform state-society relations in nondemocratic regimes, using case studies of China, Egypt, Russia, and Syria, and also draws parallels between Internet freedom and Radio Free Europe programs during the Cold War.

Cybersecurity professionals are faced with the dilemma of selecting from a large set of cybersecurity defensive measures while operating with a limited set of resources with which to employ the measures. This report explains the menu of actions for defending an organization against cyberattack and recommends an approach for organizing the range of actions and evaluating cybersecurity defensive activities.

A RAND study analyzed Chinese and U.S. military capabilities in two scenarios (Taiwan and the Spratly Islands) from 1996 to 2017, finding that trends in most, but not all, areas run strongly against the United States. While U.S. aggregate power remains greater than China s, distance and geography affect outcomes. China is capable of challenging U.S. military dominance on its immediate periphery and its reach is likely to grow in the years ahead."

What is the impact of demographics on the prospective production of military power and the causes of war? This monograph analyzes this issue by projecting working-age populations through 2050; assessing the influence of demographics on manpower, national income and expenditures, and human capital; and examining how changes in these factors may affect the ability of states to carry out military missions.

The U.S. military is ill-equipped to strike at extremists who hide in populations. Using deadly force against them can harm and alienate the very people whose cooperation U.S. forces are trying to earn. To solve this problem, a new RAND study proposes a "continuum of force"--a suite of capabilities that includes sound, light, lasers, cell phones, and video cameras. These technologies are available but have received insufficient attention.

A reevaluation of conflict thresholds in the context of complex cyber, conventional, and nuclear warThe return of great power competition has renewed concerns about managing escalation, lest a minor crisis inadvertently spiral into nuclear war. This has become apparent during the war between Russia and Ukraine, as Western aid for Ukraine has been predicated on avoiding Russian escalation.The New Calculus of Escalation updates our understanding of conflict escalation dynamics for the twenty-first century with the goal of reducing the possibility of a catastrophic war. To improve mutual understanding among states, Libicki rethinks conflict thresholds and exit ramps that manage escalation. During the Cold War, there were two critical thresholds—one between peace and war, and one between conventional war and nuclear war. But ongoing developments in cyber and other advanced military technologies threaten command and control and blur the old thresholds.Military strategists, international relations scholars, and graduate students will benefit from this book's cogent analytic framework in shaping future debates.

A reevaluation of conflict thresholds in the context of complex cyber, conventional, and nuclear war The return of great power competition has renewed concerns about managing escalation, lest a minor crisis inadvertently spiral into nuclear war. This has become apparent during the war between Russia and Ukraine, as Western aid for Ukraine has been predicated on avoiding Russian escalation. The New Calculus of Escalation updates our understanding of conflict escalation dynamics for the twenty-first century with the goal of reducing the possibility of a catastrophic war. To improve mutual understanding among states, Libicki rethinks conflict thresholds and exit ramps that manage escalation. During the Cold War, there were two critical thresholds—one between peace and war, and one between conventional war and nuclear war. But ongoing developments in cyber and other advanced military technologies threaten command and control and blur the old thresholds. Military strategists, international relations scholars, and graduate students will benefit from this book's cogent analytic framework in shaping future debates.

This report examines the portfolio of tools funded by the State Department s Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor that help support Internet freedom and assesses the impact of these tools in promoting U.S. interests (such as freedom of expression, freedom of the press, and the free flow of information) without enabling criminal activity."

Cybersecurity is a constant, and, by all accounts growing, challenge. This report, the second in a multiphase study on the future of cybersecurity, reveals perspectives and perceptions from chief information security officers; examines the development of network defense measures and the countermeasures that attackers create to subvert those measures; and explores the role of software vulnerabilities and inherent weaknesses."

The primary purpose of the Programming Computation on Encrypted Data (PROCEED) program is to improve the efficiency of algorithms that allow people to carry out computations on encrypted data without having to decrypt the data itself. RAND was asked to evaluate whether PROCEED which expands the knowledge base of the global cryptographic community is likely to provide more benefits to the United States than it does to its global rivals."

Criminal activities in cyberspace are increasingly facilitated by burgeoning black markets. This report characterizes these markets and how they have grown into their current state to provide insight into how their existence can harm the information security environment. Understanding these markets lays the groundwork for exploring options to minimize their potentially harmful influence.

The perceived shortage of cybersecurity professionals working on national security may endanger the nation s networks and be a disadvantage in cyberspace conflict. RAND examined the cybersecurity labor market, especially in regard to national defense. Analysis suggests market forces and government programs will draw more workers into the profession in time, and steps taken today would not bear fruit for another five to ten years."

As the need to identify known and suspected combatants has elevated the importance of biometrics in the Department of Defense (DoD), RAND researchers assessed how current activities are supporting end users and how DoD is preparing to focus biometrics on different missions. As overseas contingency operations wind down, DoD's biometrics program must move in a new direction, and continued funding must be justified in new ways.

The Global Force Management Data Initiative was launched to improve aggregation of unclassified force-structure data. Aggregation, though, raised concerns about classification because the system might be attractive to a potential adversary. The authors develop a framework for evaluating classification decisions to determine that, while overall classification is not indicated, the inclusion of some data will require careful consideration.

In May-June 2009, RAND carried out a survey of conditions in Anbar Province, once one of Iraq1s most violent areas. The resulting data on security and the effects of war, public infrastructure, demographics, employment, income and standards of living, education, and housing should foster greater understanding of current conditions in al-Anbar and help identify areas on which to focus future assistance.