Patrick B Johnston

The foreign policy and defense communities have intensively debated the efficacy of low-cost and small-footprint military options for crises such as those in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Syria, and Yemen. This report provides a statistical analysis of hundreds of cases, supplemented by case studies, to evaluate the strategic effects of each option across a range of irregular warfare operations and in a range of operational environments.

With the end of its territorial caliphate, the Islamic State will almost certainly attempt a comeback. Such efforts will require money. This report details the group's history, drawing from the literature, documents, and interviews with people who lived under the caliphate, with a focus on the group's revenue-raising activities and expenses, both as a self-styled caliphate and as an insurgency.

This report examines the 14-year experience of U.S. special operations forces in the Philippines from 2001 through 2014 and the activities and effects of special operations capabilities employed to address terrorist threats in Operation Enduring Freedom Philippines through training and equipping Philippine security forces, providing operational advice and assistance, and conducting civil military and information operations."

This report describes counterinsurgency strategies and practices and conditions in which U.S. small-footprint partnerships may succeed. Successful U.S. operations have been concentrated in favorable conditions, but most insurgencies occur in worst-case conditions. Case studies of the Philippines and Pakistan reinforce findings of the analysis and highlight challenges for the U.S. in trying to influence partners. Recommendations are offered for managing troubled partnerships."