Paul Embrechts

Explore the concept of risk through numerous examples and their statistical modeling, traveling from a historical perspective all the way to an up-to-date technical analysis. Written with a wide readership in mind, this book begins with accounts of a selection of major historical disasters, such as the North Sea flood of 1953 and the L'Aquila earthquake. These tales serve to set the scene and to motivate the second part of the book, which describes the mathematical tools required to analyze these events, and how to use them. The focus is on the basic understanding of the mathematical modeling of risk and what types of questions the methods allow one to answer. The text offers a bridge between the world of science and that of everyday experience. It is written to be accessible to readers with only a basic background in mathematics and statistics. Even the more technical discussions are interspersed with historical comments and plentiful examples.

Explore the concept of risk through numerous examples and their statistical modeling, traveling from a historical perspective all the way to an up-to-date technical analysis. Written with a wide readership in mind, this book begins with accounts of a selection of major historical disasters, such as the North Sea flood of 1953 and the L'Aquila earthquake. These tales serve to set the scene and to motivate the second part of the book, which describes the mathematical tools required to analyze these events, and how to use them. The focus is on the basic understanding of the mathematical modeling of risk and what types of questions the methods allow one to answer. The text offers a bridge between the world of science and that of everyday experience. It is written to be accessible to readers with only a basic background in mathematics and statistics. Even the more technical discussions are interspersed with historical comments and plentiful examples.

This book provides the most comprehensive treatment of the theoretical concepts and modelling techniques of quantitative risk management. Whether you are a financial risk analyst, actuary, regulator or student of quantitative finance, Quantitative Risk Management gives you the practical tools you need to solve real-world problems. Describing the latest advances in the field, Quantitative Risk Management covers the methods for market, credit and operational risk modelling. It places standard industry approaches on a more formal footing and explores key concepts such as loss distributions, risk measures and risk aggregation and allocation principles. The book's methodology draws on diverse quantitative disciplines, from mathematical finance and statistics to econometrics and actuarial mathematics. A primary theme throughout is the need to satisfactorily address extreme outcomes and the dependence of key risk drivers. Proven in the classroom, the book also covers advanced topics like credit derivatives. * Fully revised and expanded to reflect developments in the field since the financial crisis* Features shorter chapters to facilitate teaching and learning* Provides enhanced coverage of Solvency II and insurance risk management and extended treatment of credit risk, including counterparty credit risk and CDO pricing* Includes a new chapter on market risk and new material on risk measures and risk aggregation

Both in insurance and in finance applications, questions involving extremal events (such as large insurance claims, large fluctuations in financial data, stock market shocks, risk management, ...) play an increasingly important role. This book sets out to bridge the gap between the existing theory and practical applications both from a probabilistic as well as from a statistical point of view. Whatever new theory is presented is always motivated by relevant real-life examples. The numerous illustrations and examples, and the extensive bibliography make this book an ideal reference text for students, teachers and users in the industry of extremal event methodology.

The modeling of stochastic dependence is fundamental for understanding random systems evolving in time. When measured through linear correlation, many of these systems exhibit a slow correlation decay--a phenomenon often referred to as long-memory or long-range dependence. An example of this is the absolute returns of equity data in finance. Selfsimilar stochastic processes (particularly fractional Brownian motion) have long been postulated as a means to model this behavior, and the concept of selfsimilarity for a stochastic process is now proving to be extraordinarily useful. Selfsimilarity translates into the equality in distribution between the process under a linear time change and the same process properly scaled in space, a simple scaling property that yields a remarkably rich theory with far-flung applications. After a short historical overview, this book describes the current state of knowledge about selfsimilar processes and their applications. Concepts, definitions and basic properties are emphasized, giving the reader a road map of the realm of selfsimilarity that allows for further exploration. Such topics as noncentral limit theory, long-range dependence, and operator selfsimilarity are covered alongside statistical estimation, simulation, sample path properties, and stochastic differential equations driven by selfsimilar processes. Numerous references point the reader to current applications. Though the text uses the mathematical language of the theory of stochastic processes, researchers and end-users from such diverse fields as mathematics, physics, biology, telecommunications, finance, econometrics, and environmental science will find it an ideal entry point for studying the already extensive theory and applications of selfsimilarity.

Both in insurance and in finance applications, questions involving extremal events (such as large insurance claims, large fluctuations in financial data, stock market shocks, risk management, ...) play an increasingly important role.