Roger Cliff

Escalation is a natural tendency in any form of human competition, and today's security environment demands that the United States be prepared for a host of escalatory threats. This analysis of escalation dynamics and approaches to escalation management draws on a range of historical examples from World War I through Somalia in the early 1990s to inform escalation-related decisionmaking.

Once termed the 'world's largest military museum', the Chinese military has made enormous progress over the past twenty years. With skyrocketing military budgets and new technology, China's tanks, aircraft, destroyers, and missile capabilities are becoming comparable to those of the United States. If these trends continue, how powerful will the Chinese military be in the future? Will its capabilities soon rival or surpass those of the United States? The most comprehensive study of its kind, this book provides a detailed assessment of China's military capabilities in 2000 and 2010 with projections for 2020. It is the first of its kind in outlining a rigorous, theoretically and empirically grounded framework for assessing military capability based on not just weaponry but also doctrine, training, equipment, and organizational structure. This framework provides not only the most accurate assessment of China's military to date but an important new tool in the study of military history.

Once termed the 'world's largest military museum', the Chinese military has made enormous progress over the past twenty years. With skyrocketing military budgets and new technology, China's tanks, aircraft, destroyers, and missile capabilities are becoming comparable to those of the United States. If these trends continue, how powerful will the Chinese military be in the future? Will its capabilities soon rival or surpass those of the United States? The most comprehensive study of its kind, this book provides a detailed assessment of China's military capabilities in 2000 and 2010 with projections for 2020. It is the first of its kind in outlining a rigorous, theoretically and empirically grounded framework for assessing military capability based on not just weaponry but also doctrine, training, equipment, and organizational structure. This framework provides not only the most accurate assessment of China's military to date but an important new tool in the study of military history.

On November 7, 2009, the conference 'Cross-Strait Relations: New Opportunities and Challenges for Taiwan's Security' brought together leading experts on political and military issues from both the United States and Taiwan to consider how a range of political, economic, and military factors are likely to shape Taiwan's security over the coming decade. The panelists' papers, included in these proceedings, represent a variety of views and analyses. One-liner: A November 2009 conference brought together leading experts to consider how political, economic, and military factors are likely to shape Taiwan's security in the coming decade. The papers represented a range of viewpoints and analyses.

This monograph assesses China's aerospace capabilities and the extent to which China's participation in commercial aerospace markets and supply chains is contributing to the improvement of those capabilities. It examines China's commercial aviation manufacturing capabilities, its commercial and military capabilities in space, Chinese government efforts to encourage foreign participation in the development of China's aerospace industry, transfers of foreign aerospace technology to China, the extent to which U.S. and other foreign aerospace firms depend on supplies from China, and the implications of these issues for U.S. security interests.

Less than a decade ago, China's air force was an antiquated service equipped almost exclusively with weapons based on 1950s-era Soviet designs and operated by personnel with questionable training according to outdated employment concepts. This monograph analyzes published Chinese and Western sources about current and future capabilities and employment concepts of the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF). It describes how those capabilities and concepts might be realized in a conflict over Taiwan, assesses the implications of China implementing them, and provides recommendations about actions that should be taken in response.

What can the United States learn from other militaries about how better to prepare for full-spectrum operations - simultaneous offensive, defensive, and stability or civil support operations - and deployments? The authors examine the militaries of China, France, the UK, India, and Israel to identify different approaches to readiness, adaptability, and operational issues, including using subject-matter experts to improve training for specific deployments * using staff training to prepare forces for multiple contingencies; allowing combat training centers to focus on foundational skills; and, preparing units for a specific operational environment prior to deployment. The authors also examine how the United States, France, and the UK prepare for and conduct train, advise, and assist (TAA) missions, finding that the three countries employ significantly different approaches to staff selection, TAA deployments, staff training, and career progression.

Although the question of Taiwan's status may not be resolved soon, considering various outcomes and their possible effects on U.S.-China relations is useful. Ten trajectories for the resolution of Taiwan's status are given, with effects on U.S.-China relations ranging from close cooperation to cold war. As China's military capabilities grow, it will become more difficult but more important to prevent Beijing from trying to use force against Taiwan.

Could China use anti-access strategies to defeat the United States in a conflict-in the sense of accomplishing its military and political objectives while preventing the United States from doing likewise? Analysis of Chinese military-doctrinal writings reveals a number of anti-access concepts that could have this effect. There are a number of actions the United States can take, however, to reduce the effectiveness of such strategies.

This report analyzes the individual strengths and weaknesses of China's defense industrial complex. It examines four specific defense-industrial sectors - missiles, aircraft, shipbuilding, and information technology. It argues that China's defense industry is gradually emerging from two and a half decades of neglect, inefficiency and corruption. As part of a larger RAND Project AIR FORCE study on Chinese military modernization, this document analyzes the individual strengths and weaknesses of four specific defense-industrial sectors - missile, aircraft, shipbuilding, and information technology - to explain variations in performance among those sectors, with a focus on differences in institutional arrangements, incentives, and exposure to market forces, and to evaluate the prospects for China's defense industry and its ability to contribute to military modernization.

This book projects future growth in Chinese defense expenditures, evaluates the current and likely future capabilities of China's defense industries, and compares likely future defense expenditure levels with recent expenditures by the United States and the U.S. Air Force.

China's arms sales have become the focus of considerable attention and pose a moderate threat to U.S. interests.

An analysis of the rising of China and its implications for the USA. The book suggests that, at present, the best US response appears to be a combination of engagement and containment, a congagement policy that would continue to try to bring China into the international system.