Scott Savitz

This report summarizes the findings of research on U.S. and other armed forces' capabilities in the Arctic, the extent to which non-U.S. entities are operating where U.S. forces cannot, and how those operations might affect U.S. national interests. The authors found that the United States is lacking in capacity and, to a lesser extent, capability and that this creates risk for U.S. security.

This report assesses in what ways and to what degree unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) are suitable for supporting U.S. Navy missions and functions. It briefly characterizes the current and emerging USV marketplaces to provide a baseline for near-term capabilities, describes USV concepts of employment to support diverse U.S. Navy missions and functions, and evaluates these concepts of employment to identify specific missions and functions for which they are highly suitable.

This report describes how non-lethal weapons (NLWs) can be used in diverse strategic and operational contexts by drawing on insights from psychology and group dynamics. Effective NLW usage is illustrated by vignettes in multiple domains involving gray-zone situations, encounters with civilians, and combat scenarios. The authors also recommend desirable future NLW capabilities to pursue.

This report describes how to evaluate the tactical, operational, and strategic impact of intermediate force capabilities (IFCs), which cause less-than-lethal effects; these include non-lethal weapons, electromagnetic warfare, cyber defense, and information operations. The authors also discuss how IFCs can be better integrated into wargaming, modeling, and simulation to facilitate their usage in U.S. and NATO-wide operations.

This report summarizes the findings of Evergreen V, the most recent iteration of an ongoing scenario-based strategic foresight initiative that aims to help the U.S. Coast Guard identify issues, areas of opportunity, and potential challenges that it will likely face in the coming decades, so that senior leadership can better bridge the gap between near- and long-term planning and prepare the service to meet future demands.

This report documents a research project that focused on identifying priority potential Arctic capability gaps with respect to U.S. Coast Guard operations in the region in the present and in the 2030s. It is becoming increasingly important to determine how to operate in the region, given changing conditions and the potential for increasing activity that will drive demand for more frequent U.S. government presence across a spectrum of roles.

The U.S. Coast Guard's motto is Semper Paratus--always ready. But for what? This report describes an approach to developing scenarios to aid in decisionmaking under deep uncertainty through the Evergreen strategic foresight initiative. The scenarios presented here focus on readiness, but the approach can be adapted for other contexts.

This study draws lessons regarding technological countermeasures to radioactive contamination caused by the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant accident. It focuses on contamination measurement, efforts to limit dispersal, decontamination, and storage of radioactive materials. The report analyzes technological successes and identifies capability gaps that could be redressed through novel technologies or improved use of existing technologies.

The U.S. Coast Guard needs to measure its operational-level performance effectively. To assist this effort, the authors created logic models detailing elements of the Coast Guard s 11 missions. After identifying and assessing the validity, reliability, and feasibility of relevant existing metrics, the authors go on to propose potential metrics that could improve on or complement existing metrics, as well as a framework for applying the metrics."