Sean M Zeigler

The authors sought to identify possible Russian flashpoints in Europe that could entangle the United States. Using quantitative and qualitative methods to analyze historical data on Russian disputes and conflicts, they identified the key drivers of such flashpoints. They derive planning implications for the United States and the U.S. Army in particular. This research was completed prior to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The U.S. National Security Strategy focuses on the expectation of a new era of growing international competition that the United States is expected to confront. The authors examine the nature of the emerging era, assess the perspectives of 16 countries (beginning with the primary challengers to the U.S.-led order), and evaluate various characteristics for each.

The authors identified disputes among roles, missions, and functions (RMF) that have endured as problems for the U.S. Air Force, factors associated with major RMF changes, and reasons why reform efforts failed. In crafting a framework for analyzing the RMF implications of strategic-level guidance and emerging operational concepts, the authors considered how future leadership choices will influence relative attractiveness of RMF courses of action.

The growing cruise and ballistic missile threat to U.S. Air Force bases in Europe has led to a reassessment of defensive options, including ground-based systems currently assigned to the Army. The gap between this threat and the U.S. capacity and capability to counter the threat is particularly worrisome. This report offers alternative courses of action for Air Force consideration and assesses strengths and weaknesses of each.

The foreign policy and defense communities have intensively debated the efficacy of low-cost and small-footprint military options for crises such as those in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Syria, and Yemen. This report provides a statistical analysis of hundreds of cases, supplemented by case studies, to evaluate the strategic effects of each option across a range of irregular warfare operations and in a range of operational environments.

The U.S. Air Force has embarked on a new round of strategic planning under the auspices of its 2015 Strategic Master Plan (SMP). This report represents a general survey of the state of the art in strategy and planning. We found that basic concept and approach of the SMP has promise, but its emphasis on pre-set planning could obstruct, rather than facilitate, its objectives.

This study develops a framework for long-term U.S. Air Force posture planning that accounts for posture drivers and identifies steps to take to increase posture robustness and agility over the 30-year planning period. The authors recommend testing posture against failure of key assumptions and a large number of possible demands; considering seemingly implausible or unimportant future demands; and balancing posture stickiness and agility."

To support defense planners in crafting effective deterrence strategies for Europe and the Middle East, RAND researchers conducted a multimethod analysis--consisting of a literature review, roundtables with subject-matter experts, quantitative analysis, and a case study of Ukraine--to assess the effectiveness of U.S. forward presence, exercises and short-term deployments, and security cooperation for deterring Russian and Iranian aggression.

This report provides a summary of the risks, proliferation, and costs of man-portable air defense system (MANPADS) attacks against commercial aviation targets, as well as mitigation options. The research is focused on the historical use of MANPADS against civilian aviation; the threat of MANPADS proliferation and nonstate groups' MANPADS use; the potential economic impacts of an overseas attack on civilian aircraft; and mitigation options.