Shona Loong

Outside Myanmar, the 2021 coup d’état has often been portrayed as the end of a hopeful period for the country. In this Adelphi book, however, Aaron Connelly and Shona Loong argue that the Aung San Suu Kyi government that preceded it was a false dawn, unlikely to fulfil the international community's aspirations for a stable, peaceful and strong Myanmar. Instead, the movement opposing the 2021 coup holds much greater promise – despite the bloody conflict that dominates the news today. Connelly and Loong survey three fundamental relationships that have shaped Myanmar before and after the coup – between the military and the state, between the majority Burmese and ethnic minorities, and between Myanmar and the world – to explain how opposition to the coup has shifted all of them in a more liberal, pluralist and cosmopolitan direction.

In the context of Myanmar's ethnic diversity, ethnic armed organizations may play a key role in harmonizing responses to the coup. Redressing the grievances of non-Bamar groups is crucial to ensuring national and regional stability. Conversely, strategies that mistakenly assume national unity will lead to short-term solutions may cycle back into violence and conflict.There is little evidence that the Tatmadaw is willing to negotiate with ethnic armed organizations or the National Unity Government. These organizations require support in coordinating anti-coup efforts and material resources to enhance their leverage against the postcoup regime.The anti-coup movement's relationship with Myanmar's ethnic groups has moved through three broad phases: (1) diversity without coordinated demands; (2) visions of a federal future; and (3) agitating for change. The movement is at a critical juncture. Its success depends on its ability to transform existing centre-periphery relations. The role of ethnic armed organizations and civil society organizations needs to be recognized rather than sidelined in favour of the Committee Representing the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw or the National Unity Government.Previous missed opportunities for transforming centre-periphery relations are instructive for actors seeking to support the anti-coup movement. Three aspects of the anti-coup movement have historical precedents in Karen State: (1) refuge; (2) non-state social services; and (3) shared experiences of violence. In previous iterations of each, a failure in relational thinking has entrenched the centralization of power in Myanmar.