Stephen J. Blank

The papers included here, except for the editor's introduction, all come from the Strategic Studies Institute's annual conference on Russia in May 2012. In one way or another, they all point to the internal pathologies that render Russian security a precarious affair, at the best of times. As the editor suggests, the very fact of this precariousness makes Russia an inherently unpredictable and even potentially dangerous actor, not necessarily because it will actively attack its neighbors, though we certainly cannot exclude that possibility, but rather because it may come apart trying to play the role of a great power in Eurasia or elsewhere. As we all know, that outcome happened in 1917 and in 1989-91, with profound implications for international security and U.S. interests.

In one way or another, these papers from the Strategic Studies Institute's annual conference on Russia in May 2012 included in this book all point to the internal pathologies that render Russian security a precarious affair at the best of times. As the editor suggests, the very fact of this precariousness makes Russia an in--herently unpredictable and even potentially danger--ous actor, not necessarily because it will actively at--tack its neighbors, though we certainly cannot exclude that possibility, but rather because it may come apart trying to play the role of a great power in Eurasia or elsewhere. As we all know, that outcome happened in 1917 and in 1989-91, with profound implications for international security and U.S. interests.

Immediately after the terrorist attacks on the Pentagon and World Trade Center, NATO members unanimously voted their support for the United States under Article V of the Washington Treaty. This unprecedented action, the first time such a vote has occurred in NATO's history, underscores the vitality of the Atlantic Alliance and its tremendous strategic value for its members. This vote conferred great legitimacy upon any response that the United States will make to those attacks and reminded us that the solidity of NATO allows the United States to defend its interests on the world stage with great confidence about European security. Nevertheless, the Alliance is not a wholly untroubled or static relationship. In the first half of 2001, there were numerous public signs of stress among the allies as they faced new challenges. Many of the issues involved in these tensions are particularly important to the future of European security and must be resolved for NATO to move forward...

The new agreements between NATO and Russia and between the United States and Russia create opportunities for strengthening bilateral and multilateral military activities throughout the former Soviet Union. These could embrace all the militaries of the former Soviet Union and not only enhance military security in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), but also foster military-political integration with the West and possibly defense reform in all or at least some of the CIS regimes. Most importantly, Russia is pledged to cooperate in these activities. This monograph explores the unprecedented opportunities that are now before the United States and recommends actions that the Government and armed forces, especially, but not only the U.S. Army, should undertake to consolidate and extend the newly emerging military partnership and cooperative security regime that are now developing.

Assessment of the threat environment is a critical element in the formulation of any state's strategy and defense doctrine. It also should be an inherently critical process that seeks to free policymakers from incorrect, antiquated, or misconceived perceptions about the threat. Consequently, the nature of the threat(s) the United States or any other government faces is the subject of a never-ending debate. For several years U.S. policymakers, officials, and writers on defense have employed the terms "asymmetric" or "asymmetry" to characterize everything from the nature of the threats we face to the nature of war and beyond. This monograph challenges the utility of using those terms to characterize the threats we face, one element of the broader debate over the nature of war, U.S. strategy, and the threats confronting us. As a work of critique, it aims to make an important contribution to the threat debate.

One of the hallmarks of the two Bush administrations' foreign and defense policies has been a growing rapprochement with India. Indeed, in June 2005 the U.S. Government signed a defense agreement with that country. In part, this rapprochement is driven by and coincides with India's increasingly visible role as a major Asian power. This book-length monograph seeks to illuminate India's rising power and capabilities with regard to the key regions on its periphery: the Persian Gulf, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia. The author, Dr. Stephen Blank, also considers the major issues pertaining to India's bilateral defense agenda with the United States. By revealing the dimensions of India's growing capabilities and interests, he also provides a strategic rationale for the development of the partnership to date and for its further evolution. Numerous analyses of current global trends point to the rise of India as a major transformation in world politics.

In the course of its wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the U.S. military has deployed forces to hitherto undreamt of destinations in Central Asia and the Caucasus. These deployments reflect more than the exigencies of specific contingencies, but rather are the latest stage in a revolution in strategic affairs that has intersected with the coinciding revolution in military affairs. Thanks to the linked developments in these two processes, the Transcaspian area has now become an area of strategic importance to the United States for many reasons, and not just energy. In this monograph, Dr. Stephen Blank explains how this newly won access to the Transcaspian has come about and why it will remain important to the United States. He then offers analysis and recommendations as to how we might retain access to deal with future contingencies. By examining intersecting geopolitical and strategic trends, Dr. Blank carries on the Strategic Studies Institute's mission of providing timely and relevant analysis...