Tanya Charlick-Paley

A set of recommendations for a global access strategy to render the USAF better equipped to meet its access and basing needs and hence to perform its missions both rapidly and effectively. The post-Cold War era has ushered in an unprecedented need for responsiveness on the part of all U.S. services to fast-moving, rapidly evolving contingencies around the globe. Ready access to overseas installations, foreign territory, and foreign airspace has assumed particular importance to the United States Air Force (USAF), the majority of whose aircraft are configured to operate from bases relatively close to their intended targets. Accordingly, this report outlines an approach that the USAF can take to secure such access across a wide range of potential contingencies. The report begins by analyzing the variables that have affected other countries' decisions either to grant or to deny the United States access, and it then discusses the tools that are available to the United States to help ensure such access in the future.Subsequently, the report evaluates the effects that less-than-optimal basing and access might have on future USAF operations and the manner in which such effects might be mitigated. The demands that military operations other than war might impose on the USAF are similarly assessed. Finally, the report offers a set of recommendations that, taken together, constitute the basis for a global access strategy aimed at rendering the USAF better equipped to meet its access and basing needs - and hence to perform its missions both rapidly and effectively - in the future. [AF] The post-Cold War era has ushered in an unprecedented need for U.S. services' responsiveness to fast-moving, rapidly evolving contingencies around the globe. Ready access to overseas installations and foreign territory and airspace has assumed particular importance to the United States Air Force (USAF). Accordingly, this report outlines an approach that the USAF can take to secure such access across a wide range of potential contingencies.

Trends in the Russian Federation are of concern because they indicate the potential for instability and unrest in a country that remains a vital interest for the United States. Continuing trends toward military, political, economic, and social decline in Russia threaten the interests of the United States and its allies. Moscow's capacity to govern is called into question by increasing crime and corruption (and by political and economic regionalization). Both the military nuclear arsenal and the civilian nuclear power sector present risks of materials theft or diversion, as well as of tragic accident. An increasingly aging and ailing population bodes ill for Russia's future. Reversing the country's economic decline and rebuilding an effective military have proven difficult for the financially strapped government. While improvements, especially in the economic realm, are now evident, their sustainability is far from certain. The future development of these trends is critical to U.S. interests. Nuclear material from Russia could fall into the hands of terrorists-organized crime in Russia is part of a multinational network with links to global and local terror.Russia is a major oil and gas producer and transit state, and the U.S. government has identified energy interests as key to national security. A humanitarian crisis in Russia could threaten U.S. allies with refugee flows, environmental crisis, or conflict spillover. In many scenarios, it seems likely that the United States would respond. If so, the U.S. Air Force is certain to be called upon for transportation and perhaps military missions in a very demanding environment. (author) What challenges does today's Russia pose for the United States and the U.S. Air Force? If certain economic, military, social, and political negative trends in Russia continue, they may create a new set of dangers that might prove more real, and therefore more frightening, than the far-off specter of Russian attack ever was. In a number of scenarios, the U.S. Air Force is certain to be called upon for transportation and perhaps for various military missions in a very demanding environment.

This report attempts to put the Caspian Basin and Central Asia into a comprehensive strategic perspective at a time when NATO is increasingly concerned with challenges on its periphery. The authors examine NATO's interests and capabilities.