Terrence K. Kelly

Assesses the size and adequacy of the federal workforce for carrying out scientific, technical, engineering, and math-related activities Experts both inside and outside of government have voiced fears that federal the workforce for carrying out scientific, technical, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) activities is aging and may soon face a dwindling labor pool. The authors assess the condition of this workforce, focusing on three main areas: trends in the U.S. STEM workforce overall that might affect the federal STEM workforce, workforce-shaping activities in the federal STEM workforce, and legislative and programmatic mechanisms for influencing that workforce.

Looking to the 2030 2040 time frame, U.S. policy and military strategy will need to strike a balance among maintaining a cooperative relationship with China, deterring Chinese aggression in regional disputes, and preparing for the possibility that China could become more assertive. The U.S. Army will have an important role to play in preparing for these developments and for protecting and furthering U.S. interests in the region."

Since 2007, security has improved dramatically in Iraq. The U.S. and Iraqi governments - and most Iraqis - want to see both the U.S. presence there reduced and the Iraqi government and security forces assuming a greater role in providing for public security. The challenge is to effect this drawdown while preserving security and stability in the country and in the region. In response to tasking from the U.S. Congress, RAND researchers conducted an independent study to examine drawdown schedules, risks, and mitigating strategies. They identified logistical constraints on moving equipment out of the country, assessed trends in insurgent activity and the ability of Iraqi security forces to counter it, and examined the implications for the size of the residual U.S. force and for security in Iraq and the region. This book presents alternative drawdown schedules - one consistent with the Obama administration's stated intentions and two others, one somewhat slower and another faster - that are responsive to these factors.It also recommends steps that the United States can take to alleviate anticipated constraints, overcome likely resistance, and reduce the potential risks associated with a drawdown. For more than 60 years, decisionmakers in the public and private sectors have turned to the RAND Corporation for objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the nation and the world.

This monograph provides a practical definition of terrorism risk, presents a method of estimating it, and demonstrates a framework for evaluating this method. Results support conclusions on how to improve risk-based resource allocation. The Department of Homeland Security is responsible for protecting the United States from terrorism. It does so partly through the Urban Areas Security Initiative, though its distribution has been criticized for not reflecting risk. This monograph offers a practical definition of terrorism risk and a method for estimating it that addresses inherent uncertainties. It also demonstrates a framework for evaluating alternative risk estimates. Finally, it makes five recommendations for improving resource allocation.

The proliferation of anti-access and area denial capabilities threatens to undermine the viability of offensive force projection. Thus, certainty that the United States could decisively defeat any state in all circumstances could be eroding. This research examined trends in military capabilities among potential U.S. adversaries and proposes an alternative way for the United States and its allies to secure their interests.

This volume describes nine warfighting scenarios to test whether the anti-access and area-denial threat to U.S. force projection is growing more severe in critical regions. The potential adversaries in the scenarios are China, Russia, and Iran. The scenarios describe plausible U.S. and adversary military actions based on common understanding of current operational capabilities and approaches.

Land-based anti-ship missiles (ASMs) feature prominently in the capabilities of many island nations in the Western Pacific, but the United States currently lacks such systems. This report illustrates the potential strategic advantages of the United States working with partners to build a coalition ASM capability, particularly in the event of a conflict with China, and includes an assessment of logistical challenges and positioning approaches.

Ending the U.S. war in Iraq required redeploying 100,000 military and civilian personnel; handing off responsibility for 431 activities to the Iraqi government, U.S. embassy, USCENTCOM, or other U.S. government entities; and moving or transferring ownership of over a million pieces of property in accordance with U.S. and Iraqi laws, national policy, and DoD requirements. This book examines the planning and execution of this transition.

U.S. Army Special Operations Command asked RAND Arroyo Center to determine whether its Tactical Human Optimization, Rapid Rehabilitation and Reconditioning (THOR3) program is effectively utilizing the resources provided and to identify opportunities for improvement in the program s planning and implementation, staffing, leader development and education, facility and equipment requirements, and ability to support participating personnel."

Security force assistance (SFA) is a central pillar of the counterinsurgency campaign being waged by U.S. and coalition forces in Afghanistan. This monograph analyzes SFA efforts in Afghanistan over time, documents U.S. and international approaches to building the Afghan force from 2001 to 2009, and provides observations and recommendations that emerged from extensive fieldwork in Afghanistan in 2009 and their implications for the U.S. Army. This title analyzes security force assistance efforts in Afghanistan, focusing on lessons and themes that emerged from extensive fieldwork in Afghanistan in 2009 and their implications for the U.S. Army.

Building on a framework for integrating civil and military counterinsurgency (COIN) first presented in prior RAND research, this volume presents an approach to the civil component of counterinsurgency that builds on detailed background, context analysis, and threat analysis to identify and develop critical civil COIN activities and illustrates them with three case studies from Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

U.S. withdrawal could affect Iraq's internal security and stability, which could, in turn, affect U.S. strategic interests and the safety of U.S. troops and civilians in Iraq. U.S. policy-makers need a dynamic analytic framework with which to examine the shifting motivations and capabilities of the actors that affect Iraq's security. Within this framework, the United States should be able to contribute to continued strengthening of the internal security and stability of Iraq even as it withdraws its forces.

A RAND team studied how civilian counterinsurgency could be conducted more safely in the face of active insurgency, when it can do the most good. Here they make recommendations for improving the security of civil counterinsurgency under fire.

This study considers the creation of a high-end police force for use in stability operations, examining its ideal size, how responsive it needs to be, where in the government to locate it, its needed capabilities, its proper staffing, and its cost. A 6,000-person force created in the U.S. Marshals Service and whose officers are seconded to domestic police agencies when not deployed would be the most effective of the options considered."

This book uses the Office of Personnel Management's Human Capital Assessment and Accountability Framework, which advocates strategic alignment, workforce planning and development, and leadership and knowledge management, to assess the U.S. civilian personnel and staffing requirements for stability and reconstruction operations.It presents a framework for improving U.S. civilian personnel and staffing programs for stability and reconstruction operations.

This book examines five possible U.S. strategies for Iraq. It offers recommendations for ways in which U.S. political, security, and economic policies in Iraq could be improved. It argues that the focus of policy must be the security of Iraq's population. It also emphasizes the need for policymakers to prepare and plan not only for success, but also for failure.

In Iraq and elsewhere, the United States needs a law enforcement capability for stability operations. How should such a force be created and what capabilities should it embody? This report examines the characteristics of such a force and the challenges that must be faced in creating it.