Zohan Hasan Tariq

This report presents an analysis of the pathways from climate change to conflict and how that relationship is unfolding in the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility (AOR). The analysis is based on a semistructured literature review of causal pathways from climate change to conflict and three case studies of climate-related conflict in the CENTCOM AOR.

Stressors from climate change will become more intense and more frequent in the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility. This development will likely contribute to CENTCOM's shift from a warfighting-focused command to a command that responds to and conducts traditional and nontraditional security missions. The aim of this report is to help CENTCOM planners prepare for a future security environment that is affected by climate change.